This article is based on the the latest assessment done by U.S. intel on Putin, which report was read by three U.S. national security sources from three different agencies who told Newsweek its contents. I am concerned that this is broken in Newsweek, the lede is "EXCLUSIVE:", which I have not found inherently reliable, and that no media with deeper gravitas have anything similar. Newsweek has not been known for scoops for awhile. Still, it is based on U.S. intel.
...the intelligence community produced its fourth comprehensive assessment [on Putin] at the end of May. The classified U.S. report says Putin seems to have re-emerged after undergoing treatment in April for advanced cancer, three U.S. intelligence leaders who have read the reports tell Newsweek.
See below for underscored.
The assessments also confirm that there was an assassination attempt on Putin's life in March, the officials say.
The high-ranking officials, who represent three separate intelligence agencies, are concerned that Putin is increasingly paranoid about his hold on power, a status that makes for a rocky and unpredictable course in Ukraine. But it is one, they say, that also makes the prospects of nuclear war less likely.
"Putin's grip is strong but no longer absolute," says one of the senior intelligence officers with direct access to the reports. "The jockeying inside the Kremlin has never been more intense during his rule, everyone sensing that the end is near."
If Putin is "end is near" ill it's a tossup in my mind that that makes nuclear war "LESS likely". Could as likely make him more dangerous. I thought at first that he may have turned over the Russian "football" to some other Kremlin guy as U.S. presidents do when they're going to be unconscious, "Putin's grip is strong but no longer absolute" could be his grip on the nuclear football but intense jockeying dispels that.
All three officials—one from the office of the Director of National Intelligence, one a retired Air Force senior officer, and one from the Defense Intelligence Agency—caution that the Russian leader's isolation makes it more difficult for U.S. intelligence to precisely assess Putin's status and health.
...
"We need to be mindful of the influence of wishful thinking," cautions the retired Air Force leader. "We learned—or didn't learn—that lesson the hard way with Osama bin Laden and Saddam Hussein."
NO WISHFUL OR DREADFUL THINKING! Just the facts, ma'am.
...
...the very long table that Putin used in the Kremlin...came to symbolize his paranoia and physical fear.
The table most recently was the venue for Putin's meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron on February 7, just two weeks before the Ukraine invasion. For the intelligence community, the long table and Putin's behavior with Macron became a baseline...to measure the Russian president's decline.
...
Then came Putin's April 21 meeting with Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu, this time at a small table, the hue all green and peaceful...Putin...was far from a picture of health, slouching in his chair and gripping the table with his right hand.
If slouching in his chair is one of the signs of "the end is near" then the motherfucker would have died in his meetings with Obama.
... Many pieces of intelligence were analyzed for the White House: the consensus was that Putin was ill and probably dying. He seemed to be putting on a good show. But perhaps the isolation of COVID had masked a decline that was only now more vividly being exposed.
There had BETTER have been many OTHER pieces of intelligence for that "consensus" because slouching and gripping the table are NOTHING.
The May 9 "Victory Day" appearance was next, where a noticeably bloated Russian leader sat slumped. Putin's health, and his inability (or reluctance) to declare victory in Ukraine went together. The U.S. intelligence community agreed that his situation was graver than previously thought, and his physical exhaustion...
I have not watched Putin at Victory Day. He did not declare victory, nor declare WAR as the British defence chief predicted he would!
Three days later, Ukraine's head of intelligence Maj. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov told U.K. Sky News that Putin was in a "very bad psychological and physical condition and he is very sick," adding that there were plans inside the Kremlin to overthrow the Russian leader.
A rumor that Kremlin security people had uncovered a Russian plot to assassinate Putin was confirmed at this time. The CIA and foreign intelligence services were picking up consistent stories of discord at the top of the national security ministries, as well as the desire on the part of Russian diplomats to defect to the west.
That's the confirmation? That is not confirmation.
...
When serious intelligence started to circulate about Putin's illness, U.S. leaders were cautioned not to jump to conclusions too quickly, reminded of examples of hot "intelligence" about Osama bin Laden and Saddam Hussein that shaped U.S. policy and then proved questionable.
It is good, balanced journalism to provide those cautions.
...
"Is Putin sick? Absolutely. But we shouldn't let waiting for his death drive proactive actions on our part. ...Newsweek identifies its source here as "the senior Air Force leader". Twice earlier it id'd its AF source as "a retired Air Force senior officer". Senior and retired are not the same thing.
The following is confusing:
The U.S. intelligence community's latest assessment for President Biden and other senior leaders saw a turnaround for the Russian leader after the previous report, compiled about two weeks earlier, portrayed him as gravely ill. On one day—May 26—he made his first public visit to a Moscow military hospital. He had a phone call with Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi. And he spoke to a Russian business conference via video.
A "turnaround" is almost always synonymous with "a turn for the good" in American English. The "previous report" ~two weeks ago had Putin "gravely ill." On May 26, etc., he appeared better. The report Newsweek basis this article on is id'd in the first paragraph as the "fourth comprehensive assessment [on Putin] at the end of May." Next sentence: "The classified U.S. report..." So there is no question that this article is based on the end of May assessment. Then what the fuck is Newsweek talking about when it says that the "latest assessment" sees a "turnaround?"
...
...the DIA official...says that Putin continues to be "challenged" both health-wise and in his leadership.
"Challenged" is a fur piece from "the end is near."
Are the lessons of bin Laden and Saddam being applied to Vladimir Putin?
[good skeptical reporting] Is he fighting off Kremlin opponents and warring with his own
intelligence agencies? Is he indeed dying? What—or who—comes next? These
are the issues that the Biden administration is grappling with even as
they publicly insist that rumors of Putin dying are just rumors.
...
The DIA leader argues that in some ways, "Putin being sick or dying is good for the world, not just because of the future of Russia or ending the Ukraine war, but in diminishing the mad man threat of nuclear war."
I can see physically ill being better than mentally ill, like Trump.
"A weakened Putin—an obviously declining leader, not one at the top of his game—has less influence over his advisors and subordinates, say, if he orders the use of nukes."
The DIA leader said that? Well, then I am here to call BS on the DIA leader.
As the official explains it, a strong Putin could bully his way through, overcoming objections from ministers and commanders. But a damaged Putin (and here the official mentions Donald Trump as a similar example), "one who might not be in control of all of his faculties, just doesn't have that kind of sway."
Pause: We just segued from physical health to MENTAL health. These sources have all been talking about Putin's PHYSICAL health, NOT his mental health. Physical illness is a tossup on effect on nukes. Mental illness, clearly increases the likelihood of nukes. Unpause.
"Putin is definitely sick ... whether he's going to die soon is mere speculation," the DIA official says....We shouldn't answer our own mail, if you will, believing only the intelligence that affirms our own desired outcome.
WHAT KIND OF "SICK"?!
I'm unconvinced and most of my unconvinced-ness comes from these three sources. We have to see the assessment or snippets from the assessment. The sources' takes on it are not entirely consistent. I have to see a similar report in the Times, Post, or WSJ. You would think this story would be TOP of Google's aggregated news. It's not, it's NOWHERE.
