Monday, March 31, 2014

Kerry-Lavrov III.

Sergie and John are walking. 

How many "firsts" do you have in English, John? THE first demand you made was for us to pull our troops out of Russian Crimea. I agreed. I said lift the sanctions now. You said, your second first, pull our troops back from the Ukraine border. I said da, now lift the sanctions. You responded with your third first, talk to the usurpers in Kiev. I agreed to that and said lift the sanctions! When are you going to lift the sanctions when we give Moscow to the Germans?

...How are you going to work this out with Kiev, Sergei? 

Okay, John, I'll play along. You won't answer my repeated demands to lift the sanctions as we make concession after concession. That's okay: I'll answer yet another question without reciprocity on the U.S. side:  For our security and the safety in Ukraine, i will work with Kiev toward recognition upon the following grounds:  We see Ukraine ultimately as a federative state. We will recognize Ukraine's government on the following conditions: each of the regions of Ukraine, and all of them together, must ratify a new constitution establishing a Ukraine federation of the regions; those regions must have autonomy over their own economic and foreign policy, and the Russian language must be recognized as an official language of Ukraine. BUT  YOU MUST LIFT THE SANCTIONS BEFORE THIS! You must lift them after we pull troops out of Crimea, remove our troops from the border and promise not to invade Ukraine. Then we will negotiation with Kiev.

Sergei, the U.S. says a big, fat, red NO! to that.
Then no pledge by us not to invade. Good night John, and good luck. 

The meeting ended on exactly that last note with no progress reported, whether they discussed the particulars of this hypothetical talk or not. The U.S. is not quite negotiating on its knees here as it was over Crimea, but it's in a close-to-the-ground crouch. We are not going to do to Ukraine what Britain did to Czechoslovakia at Munich. I'm sure Kerry told Lavrov that, told Lavrov that he is not going to speak for Kiev, and that he thought the Russian pre-conditions were absurd. Now the Americans are in the uncertain position of having properly ruled out military force to save Ukraine from a Russian invasion and all of its hopes pinned on economic and diplomatic sanctions, with doubt as to their efficacy. The U.S. has to be clarify its goals here and present them to the Russians bluntly. If you don't do what we want we will keep the sanctions in place for as long as we can avoid scratching the business uber alles itch. We should continue to isolate Russia and disintegrate the relationship.