Yesterday and today I have been going back and forth both in my own mind and in texts with a friend on who, or what the template, should be for Joe Biden's veep pick. The considerations:
-The Russians won the 2016 election only in the Electoral College, losing by over 3 million in the popular vote. Thus, bringing a battleground state is a consideration. Last night, this was my and my friend's prime consideration. She (my friend) suggested Gretchen Whitmer, the governor of Michigan. I had never heard of her. I did some quick googling and okay, she can be on the ticket even if campaigns in that electric blue dress as long as she brings Michigan with her. But then I started thinking:
-Can a veep candidate bring a battleground state? I know of no empirical evidence that the candidate for vice president has ever brought a state in my lifetime. Did LBJ bring Texas for JFK? He may have, I don't know. LBJ may have kept the South solid for the ticket. But 1960 is a long time ago. Fritz Mondale did balance the ticket geographically for Jimmy Carter in 1976. I don't know if Mondale can be credited with bringing Minnesota with him but he certainly helped the ticket outside of the South. "Grits and Fritz." I would call Mondale a regional pick. Dick Cheney was a "national" (see below) pick who didn't bring a state. Clinton (Arkansas)-Gore (Tennessee), Bush41(Texas? Connecticut? Maine?)-Quayle(Potatoe), and Obama(Hawaii? Illinois? Indonesia?)-Biden(DELAWARE!). The last four winning tickets were metamodern. Geography had nothing whatsoever to do with it. There were two losing, Democratic tickets in there: Gore-Lieberman and Hillary Clinton-Tim Keane. I don't know how to classify Gore-Lieberman. Gore was no longer Tennessean, he had spent eight years in D.C., and didn't even carry his and his father's home state against Bush-Cheney. Clinton-Keane I think was intended to be geographically balanced: all the way from Washington to Northern Virginia. It bears keeping in mind that both Gore-Lieberman and Clinton-Keane won the popular vote and lost only in the Electoral College. Last night I was all over this electoral jigsawing but given this murky history, today I was not so much. I was thinking more about:
-David Brooks and John F. Harris. From reading their write-ups of last week I was gathering Trump could be looking at getting routed, not just losing. That is of surpassing importance to me. That suggests the question, should we then be looking at a National Unity ticket? A veep candidate with national appeal and/or a non-partisan, even a Never Trump Republican? I thought of the retired national security figures, McRaven, Brennan, there are a lot there. The thinking here is to further make the Trump low lifes feel their isolation. Turnout was up 66% in Virginia, 49% in Texas. Both Brooks and Harris had an abiding sense (no evidence) that people, including some Republicans, were streaming into Democratic primary voting booths to...what? Well, they marked their ballots for Biden once they got inside the voting booths, but both Brooks and Harris thought a sudden crush on Joe Biden was not what motivated them to stream. It was long simmering hatred for Trump and antipathy for a November choice between Trump and Bernie Sanders. Trump low lifes are embarrassed that they are Trump low lifes. There is no doubt about that. They don't trumpet their support. They know normal people would hate them if they knew. They are loners and losers and they know it. So my idea was to play on their insecurity by giving them a reason to feel good about themselves, to make them one of the "geese" that flocked to Biden last week. They already feel comfortable with Biden, they know him, he's one of them, and they like him. They don't "like" Trump although they will be happy to vote for him again. If you give them a National Unity ticket, so my thinking went, they would feel hunted and even more socially isolated if they voted for Trump again. They would jump at Biden. All of this was consistent with Brooks' and Harris' reads on last week.
I do think there is a lot to be said for the last paragraph. But. However. We should be fearful of burying Trump in a too shallow grave. Did we just go from hopeless to underdog to gravedigger in one week? Not so fast there, hoss. We first have to win. And so that brought me back to "balancing the ticket." Biden is going to bring Pennsylvania with him. He grew up in Scranton and Pennsylvanians have been trying to shake James Buchanan for 150 years. They will vote for Biden. That's one battleground state and I will repeat: Gretchen Whitmer can campaign in a pantsuit, a sack cloth, a burka, a bikini or a Barbie dress if she brings Michigan with her. But will she? Can she? Going back to my earlier concern, can any contemporary veep candidate? I don't know how you measure that. My friend also suggested Stacey Abrams (I just googled her to make sure I got the spelling correct and was prompted with "stacey abrams vp"). I like both Whitmer's and Abrams heft, their weight. Women...some women do not like other women who are sexy or try to be. Some women do not like ambitious or "pushy" women. Some black women don't like white women. Some women will just not vote for a woman for president! Stacey Abrams had the Georgia governor's mansion stolen from her. I do not think many white women don't like black women. I think white women would vote for a qualified black woman almost as easily as for a white man and perhaps even more so than for a black man. I don't know, I am just pulling that right out of my ass. My friend sent me an article on Abrams from Rolling Stone. She is building a huge, major political machine. Okay! Now you're talking my language. Can Stacey Abrams bring Georgia to the Democratic ticket? That would be huge. I don't know.
My friend's suggestion of Stacey Abrams though got me thinking about Congressman Jim Clyburn's role in South Carolina, which was the event that caused millions of Democrats to turn their heads and follow like "geese." Jim Clyburn's endorsement of Joe Biden may have been the most impactful endorsement in the whole history of the earth. How old's Jim Clyburn? 79. Goddamn it. Could Jim Clyburn put South Carolina in play for the Dems? Probably not. Could Jim Clyburn though so energize the black community in the South that turnout would spike as it did in Virginia and Texas and cause several deep red states to teeter? No. Black people make up 13% of the population nationally. Hillary got like 90% of the black vote. There's a pretty low ceiling there. The incredible turnout surge last week was from the suburbs according to Brooks. And, we don't need a state to teeter, we have done teetered, Beto caused Texas to teeter, we have teetered and we have lost. We want a state. We Want A State! And Clyburn's 79. I would really like to bring the average age of the ticket below 78, really would. Is there someone else with Clyburn's pull in the South? I don't know, probably, but I don't know. But this is the thing: every Democrat in the country knows that there would not be a Democratic Party without black voters! We owe them.
I started last night wanting a state, migrated to a national pick, saw ghosts from 2000 and 2016 and came back to wanting a state. We Want a State!
-The Russians won the 2016 election only in the Electoral College, losing by over 3 million in the popular vote. Thus, bringing a battleground state is a consideration. Last night, this was my and my friend's prime consideration. She (my friend) suggested Gretchen Whitmer, the governor of Michigan. I had never heard of her. I did some quick googling and okay, she can be on the ticket even if campaigns in that electric blue dress as long as she brings Michigan with her. But then I started thinking:
-Can a veep candidate bring a battleground state? I know of no empirical evidence that the candidate for vice president has ever brought a state in my lifetime. Did LBJ bring Texas for JFK? He may have, I don't know. LBJ may have kept the South solid for the ticket. But 1960 is a long time ago. Fritz Mondale did balance the ticket geographically for Jimmy Carter in 1976. I don't know if Mondale can be credited with bringing Minnesota with him but he certainly helped the ticket outside of the South. "Grits and Fritz." I would call Mondale a regional pick. Dick Cheney was a "national" (see below) pick who didn't bring a state. Clinton (Arkansas)-Gore (Tennessee), Bush41(Texas? Connecticut? Maine?)-Quayle(Potatoe), and Obama(Hawaii? Illinois? Indonesia?)-Biden(DELAWARE!). The last four winning tickets were metamodern. Geography had nothing whatsoever to do with it. There were two losing, Democratic tickets in there: Gore-Lieberman and Hillary Clinton-Tim Keane. I don't know how to classify Gore-Lieberman. Gore was no longer Tennessean, he had spent eight years in D.C., and didn't even carry his and his father's home state against Bush-Cheney. Clinton-Keane I think was intended to be geographically balanced: all the way from Washington to Northern Virginia. It bears keeping in mind that both Gore-Lieberman and Clinton-Keane won the popular vote and lost only in the Electoral College. Last night I was all over this electoral jigsawing but given this murky history, today I was not so much. I was thinking more about:
-David Brooks and John F. Harris. From reading their write-ups of last week I was gathering Trump could be looking at getting routed, not just losing. That is of surpassing importance to me. That suggests the question, should we then be looking at a National Unity ticket? A veep candidate with national appeal and/or a non-partisan, even a Never Trump Republican? I thought of the retired national security figures, McRaven, Brennan, there are a lot there. The thinking here is to further make the Trump low lifes feel their isolation. Turnout was up 66% in Virginia, 49% in Texas. Both Brooks and Harris had an abiding sense (no evidence) that people, including some Republicans, were streaming into Democratic primary voting booths to...what? Well, they marked their ballots for Biden once they got inside the voting booths, but both Brooks and Harris thought a sudden crush on Joe Biden was not what motivated them to stream. It was long simmering hatred for Trump and antipathy for a November choice between Trump and Bernie Sanders. Trump low lifes are embarrassed that they are Trump low lifes. There is no doubt about that. They don't trumpet their support. They know normal people would hate them if they knew. They are loners and losers and they know it. So my idea was to play on their insecurity by giving them a reason to feel good about themselves, to make them one of the "geese" that flocked to Biden last week. They already feel comfortable with Biden, they know him, he's one of them, and they like him. They don't "like" Trump although they will be happy to vote for him again. If you give them a National Unity ticket, so my thinking went, they would feel hunted and even more socially isolated if they voted for Trump again. They would jump at Biden. All of this was consistent with Brooks' and Harris' reads on last week.
I do think there is a lot to be said for the last paragraph. But. However. We should be fearful of burying Trump in a too shallow grave. Did we just go from hopeless to underdog to gravedigger in one week? Not so fast there, hoss. We first have to win. And so that brought me back to "balancing the ticket." Biden is going to bring Pennsylvania with him. He grew up in Scranton and Pennsylvanians have been trying to shake James Buchanan for 150 years. They will vote for Biden. That's one battleground state and I will repeat: Gretchen Whitmer can campaign in a pantsuit, a sack cloth, a burka, a bikini or a Barbie dress if she brings Michigan with her. But will she? Can she? Going back to my earlier concern, can any contemporary veep candidate? I don't know how you measure that. My friend also suggested Stacey Abrams (I just googled her to make sure I got the spelling correct and was prompted with "stacey abrams vp"). I like both Whitmer's and Abrams heft, their weight. Women...some women do not like other women who are sexy or try to be. Some women do not like ambitious or "pushy" women. Some black women don't like white women. Some women will just not vote for a woman for president! Stacey Abrams had the Georgia governor's mansion stolen from her. I do not think many white women don't like black women. I think white women would vote for a qualified black woman almost as easily as for a white man and perhaps even more so than for a black man. I don't know, I am just pulling that right out of my ass. My friend sent me an article on Abrams from Rolling Stone. She is building a huge, major political machine. Okay! Now you're talking my language. Can Stacey Abrams bring Georgia to the Democratic ticket? That would be huge. I don't know.
My friend's suggestion of Stacey Abrams though got me thinking about Congressman Jim Clyburn's role in South Carolina, which was the event that caused millions of Democrats to turn their heads and follow like "geese." Jim Clyburn's endorsement of Joe Biden may have been the most impactful endorsement in the whole history of the earth. How old's Jim Clyburn? 79. Goddamn it. Could Jim Clyburn put South Carolina in play for the Dems? Probably not. Could Jim Clyburn though so energize the black community in the South that turnout would spike as it did in Virginia and Texas and cause several deep red states to teeter? No. Black people make up 13% of the population nationally. Hillary got like 90% of the black vote. There's a pretty low ceiling there. The incredible turnout surge last week was from the suburbs according to Brooks. And, we don't need a state to teeter, we have done teetered, Beto caused Texas to teeter, we have teetered and we have lost. We want a state. We Want A State! And Clyburn's 79. I would really like to bring the average age of the ticket below 78, really would. Is there someone else with Clyburn's pull in the South? I don't know, probably, but I don't know. But this is the thing: every Democrat in the country knows that there would not be a Democratic Party without black voters! We owe them.
I started last night wanting a state, migrated to a national pick, saw ghosts from 2000 and 2016 and came back to wanting a state. We Want a State!
