Aug. 22:
Democratic pollsters have a warning about Kamala Harris’ lead
Burned by numbers that were too rosy in 2016 and 2020, Democrats are holding their breath as Harris surges against Donald Trump.
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There are plenty of warning signs hidden in the data: A poll commissioned by the Democratic messaging firm Navigator Research and unveiled during the convention showed Harris and Trump essentially tied across the swing-state map. And the candidate characteristics that are best correlated with voters’ preferences — whether a candidate is up to the job, has the right vision and is a strong leader — generally favored Trump in the survey.
And then there’s the prospect of another polling error.
Polls underestimated Trump in both 2020 and 2016. ...
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“Every year, we’ve had different curveballs. This is a difficult industry,” said John Anzalone, who was the lead pollster on Biden’s 2020 campaign. “Something’s gonna happen in 2024. You and I, right now, don’t know what that is.”
The betting markets may, I say may, be more savant about the election on the national level, and at this moment 49.7% of the money is on kamala and 49% on trumpie. Obviously, there are no swing state betting figures.
