Thursday, August 29, 2024

Ah! I actually had a similar thought*

Stuart Stevens, a member of the anti-Trump Republican group, the Lincoln Project, and a strategist for Mitt Romney’s failed 2012 presidential bid, challenged widespread predictions of a close election by suggesting that Trump’s approach would eventually alienate voters and enable Harris to win convincingly. (1)

“There’s been a lot of talk – it’s sort of a universal truth – that this election is going to be close,” he told CNN. “I have a different opinion. I think it’ll be close till about October 20th, and then I think it’s going to be like Carter versus Reagan, that the bottom is going to start to drop out [of Trump’s campaign].(2)

“I think this is going to be a race that Democrats are going to win by more than Biden did,” he added.(3)

 Updated:

1) I agree--in the popular vote. In the EC I can't see Kamala getting more than 303 EV's. 303 would require her to win Pa., Mi., Wi., Mn., Ga., Az., and Nv.--and she would still fall short of Biden's 306. To top Biden she would have to win NC in addition. 

2) Why Oct. 20? That's cuttin' it a little close, Stu! In any event, the bottom is not dropping out like Carter-Reagan! You mean an EC landslide, too??? 489 EV's?! No.

3) I agree completely that she will win the pop. vote more decisively than did Biden.