Wednesday, August 28, 2024

The Harris Walz Rural Strategy

The two are in Trump country in rural Georgia today. What might that be about?

It's about "losing by less" in areas of a state that they maybe can win by a little. Just showing up, and showing residents that you will not ignore them even though you will lose, you hope to cut 5% or 10% off your loss there. “This will be the first time a general election presidential candidate will have campaigned in Savannah since the 1990s.”--Porsha White, the Georgia state director for the Harris campaign. Losing by less in rural south Georgia means your base in metro Atlanta has less heavy lifting to do. The campaign plans to do the same thing in North Carolina and Pennsylvania.

It's not a thinking outside the box strategy, it's thinking about every corner of the box. Raphael Warnock used the strategy in 2021 and 2022 and won statewide both times. Barack Obama did the same think in 2008 and won North Carolina. Democrats have not won a presidential race in the state since.

The key to the strategy's success is in picking the state. One with heavy support in big Black and blue cities and heavy opposition in small, white, red rural counties. So, Pennsylvania, yes. North Carolina, yes. Georgia, yes. Alabama, no, not enough big cities. Ohio, probably not, the cities are not blue enough. Florida, probably not. If we play in Ohio and Florida, the play will be in the cities.

This campaign...whew, man I am just amazed. This is smart politicking.