Tuesday, October 15, 2024
My bettor brethren are speaking with their wallets and are overwhelmingly laying their money down on trumpie, now by a whopping 56.1% to 43%, a shocking +13%. Well, I beg to differ.
I am convinced to a standard of more probable than not that the tightening of the presidential race in the national vote is energizing Normals. Kamala's lead was so consistent for so long, not varying much at all, until the last week or so. It was not complaceny, but it is alarming now. I am convinced that the action of the electorate is like that of a bellows, the lead has contracted and the reaction will be that it will swell up again. This is consistent with David Frum's prediction some time ago that the election will remain close until about Oct. 22 and then it will swell in Kamala's favor and will not be as close nationally even than it was in September. Putting it another way, the late deciders will break for Kamala.
This is not to say that Kamala will win the Electoral College handily. I am convinced to a standard of more probable that she will win the EC, but not handily: 276 electoral votes to 262, in my judgment, winning Pa., Mi., Wi., and Nev.
State of the race, Pennsylvania. My gut.
Trumpie has held two of his most bizarre rallies in Pennsylvania. On Sept. 29 in Erie, he called for "one violent day" by police to end shoplifting.
And then last night's in the Philadelphia suburbs.
-You can sell crazy in Florida. You cannot in Pennsylvania, that is my firm judgment.
-Kamala has had a tiny but steady lead in Pa. for a long while.
-Mail ballot requests in the Commonwealth have come overwhelmingly from registered Democrats.
-Hillary Clinton lost Pa. by 44,000 votes.
-Joe Biden won Pa. by over 80,000 votes.
Kamala will win Pennsylvania. That is to a standard of "satisfy the conscience of the court." My conscience is satisfied today.
AP
Trump’s town hall turns into impromptu concert after medical incidents
That's a screenshot of AP's video accompanying their story. The rally was held in Pennsylvania, in suburban Montgomery County, a purplish county just north of Philadelphia. I have been to Montgomery County numerous times.
I have lived in all parts of the Commonwealth, in the cities and in Pennsyltucky. But it's been a longg time. I never stayed, but I have visited. I think I know it well. I don't think this...incident plays well anywhere in Pennsylvania. Probably some undecideds in Montgomery County, some squishies. Coming 21 days before the election, this hurt trumpie in the Commonwealth.
21 Days, THREE WEEKS, to D-Day
It was my belief (more probable than not) that a barely sufficient number of late deciders and unnerved and hyper-motivated normals would pull back from the brink and elect Kamala. But David Plouffe's elevated ceiling of 48% for trumpie has tilted me. It is not looking good, Normals. Off the top of my head I would estimate that with a 48% share of the national popular vote there is a 90%+ chance trumpie will prevail in the Electoral College and win the presidency. Kamala must get to at least a 51% share to have a realistic chance imo.
Que será, será. I'm prepared either way. I've done all that I can do, more than I have ever done for any other candidate. I will live out my life the happiest and most generously that I can whoever the winner is.
Monday, October 14, 2024
What is with this generation's inability to kick a football?
Plouffe: trumpie ceiling 48% (?)
David Plouffe, Harris’s campaign strategist, estimates that Trump’s support will cap out at 48%.
Dan Rather cites Plouffe to be comforting. It is NOT. trumpie won with 46.1%. Hillary lost with 48.2%. trumpie got 46.8% in 2020. He lost because Joe Biden got 51.3%. If trumpie hits Plouffe's ceiling of 48%--Kamala LOSES in the Electoral College and LOSES the election.
If Rather thinks (Plouffe CANNOT think this) that trumpie 48% means Kamala 52%, he is oh so wrong. 52% is more than Biden got! That equation, that 48% trumpie means 52% Kamala, is statistically impossible. Why Benjamin, you fucking MIT idjit, add 48% and 52% and you get 100%?BECAUSE OF MINOR PARTY CANDIDATES. Let me give YOU a math lesson: what does 46.8%+51.3% add up to? Er, uh. 98.1%. 1.9% didn't vote for either Biden or trumpie in 2020. Assume 1.9% vote third party this time (I predict it will be less), divide those equally and subtract from trumpie 48%, Kamala 52%: trumpie gets 47.05%, Kamala 51.05%, Kamala exactly +4%. 3%-4% is the rule of thumb for the national margin for Kamala to prevail in the EC. She is at the top of that rule of thumb. So she would win? Yes, following the rule of thumb as an iron law, and previously I have followed the r.o.t. But it's a close thing. If 44,000 votes in Georgia, Arizona, and Wisconsin had gone for trumpie when they went for Joe, the two would have been deadlocked in the EC with 270, throwing the election into the House where...Yeah. So Biden BARELY had enough to win in the EC when he thumped trump by 4.5% in the national popular vote. I say Kamala will not win with a 51.05% share and a +4% margin.
To me, the most important number to look at in the polling is Kamala's share. Why? Because, as Charlie Cook demonstrated, the last polls before the 2020 election nailed Biden's share: RCP's average was 51%, Fox and NBC/WaPo were 52%. There's a perception that the polls were wrong agayne in 2020, right? Well, that's half right. They missed on trumpie's share, RCP and Fox, 44%, NBC/Wapo, 42%; actual 46.8%. Joe Biden would not have won the election had trumpie gotten 48%! There is no way in holy hell that Kamala is going to win if trumpie hits David Plouffe's ceiling of 48%.
As of 7:57 on Oct. 14, 538's averaged Kamala share is 48.5%, trumpie's is 46.1%--exactly his winning share in 2016. 5.4% are undecided or are preferring a minor candidate. Trumpie will win again with a 46.1% share. Kamala will lose if she gets 48.5%. That's why I say cherchez la femme and her share in the polls. When they're at 51% we can relax.
GOOD
Kamala Harris will sit down with Bret Baier for her first Fox News interview
It will be her first sit down with the network, and her first interview with a news outlet outside of her ideological comfort zone since becoming the Democratic nominee.
I applaud her for a demonstration of some courage.
Harris has previously granted interviews to CNN and CBS’ “60 Minutes,” as well as friendly venues including ABC’s “The View” and Howard Stern’s radio show.
Most of the interviews came within the past two weeks, representing a shift from her decision not to talk more with the media earlier in her campaign.
Being on a trajectory to lose, like being shot at sunrise, necessitates a shift, yes.
She is going to be interviewed by a white male and speaking to an audience of viewers that is overwhelmingly white. GOOD.
"Three weeks and a day until election day, and this thing is tied, tied, tied."*
I am reading Pilgrim's Way again, for its spiritual solace. It is prominently subtitled "An Essay in Recollection." The first sentence of the Preface: "This book is a journal of certain experiences, not written in the experiencing moment, but rebuilt out of memory."
John Buchan had a prodigious intellect. But however prodigious, the mind is faulty. Especially in recollection. I have experienced the mind's faults, especially in recollection. I have learned to grow wary. Experiences "rebuilt out of memory" are rebuilt with sand.
Buchan was a learned man. On the great texts of Christianity he was raised, his father was a Calvinist minister; read and reread, those books were the foundation for his life-long generous, salving philosophy of soul. But he was still a human being with that beguiling, mysterious, faulty organ, the brain.
"...the noble Scriptural cadences had their own meaning for me, quite apart from their proper interpretation. The consequence was that I built up a Bible world of my own and placed it in the woods.
"From it I excluded the more gracious pictures, the rejoicing 'little hills,' the mountains that 'clapped their hands,'..."
That is on the fourth page of the first chapter, Wood, Water, and Hill. In the margin from a prior reading,
Wrong! Psalm 98.8: 'Let the rivers clap their hands'
I laughed out loud.
I have read Pilgrim's Way so many times that I have had the leisure to check the solidity of Buchan's remembered experiences. This was the first that I found rebuilt honestly but faultily.
MIT Wins Another Nobel
“The other part of that is, I know there is no collusion in this world, but how many of these other owners are going to say, ‘F— you, we are not bailing the Browns out of anything’?” one of the execs said.
On what to do with Deshaun Watson. As I was making coffee I imagined a conversation with Cleveland's owner. "Fuck you", I would begin the exchange of courtesies. "You embarrassed this league and every other owner in it. I'm not helping you get out of this well of shit you dug yourself."
Sunday, October 13, 2024
What's My Line?*
The games I'll be guessing (2:57 pm):
*These are my guesses (9:38 pm):
Texas (1)-Georgia (5) 'Longs -3
Leww-Miami Gardens (6) Gardeners -9
Tenn. (11)-Bama (7) Tide -6
Ark-Elle Esse Eww (8) Bayou Chinese -6
GT-The University of Our Lady of the Lake (12) Lakers -6
Ind (18)-Neb Hewwzeers -5
Illinoise (22)-Meeshagan Illinis -3
This is the House and my self-grades (9:48 pm):
'Longs -3.5. AGardeners -3.5. D
Tide -2.5. D
Bayou Chinese -2.5. D
Lakers -7.5. B
Hewwzeers -6. A
Meeshagan -1. F
They smell blood in the water
From my son, coming over the Julia Tuttle Causeway, Miami Beach, today:
HAHAHAHAHAHA!
🎵 We're from the town with the real 💩 fans
We are the Cleveland Brownies!🎵
FT Philadelphia "Eggles" (3-2) 20 Cleveland Brownies (1-5) 16.
Here it is!
Nailed the first seven, did I not? Yes, I did. Nailed Pitt at 20, no? Si.
Elle Esse Ew rises FIVE beating Olé Miss at home? Then why'd you drop Johnny Reb on his head NINE flights for losing to them on the road in OT?! I beg to differ that the Bayou Chinese are currently the eighth best in the land.
Drop Tennessee three place for a (OT) win over FLORIDA?! They didn't deserve that.
Army and Navy* are both ranked for the first time since 1960! Mid-Knight game should be a good 'un. Hope Army wins, knock the obnoxious asterisk off the N.
I was pretty good, right? Yeah.
4th and 1, own 11...Go?😳
The half also featured one of the strangest Josh Heupel calls of his 3 1/2 seasons at Tennessee. The Vols coach went for a fourth-and-1 from his own 11 late in the second quarter. Fortunately for Heupel, running back DeSean Bishop picked up the first down. But the call reeked of desperation.
Holy cow, and Pitt's Go on 4th and 1 from our 28 was strange!
Predicting the AP top ten (plus Pitt)
1. Texas
2. Oregon
3. Paterno-Sandusky
4. Ohio
5. UGA
6. Miami Gardens
7. Bama
8. IPTAY
9. Rocky Top
10. Iowa State
———--——————————————
20. Pitt. Ewtah (16) lost; Oklahoma (T-18) lost. We move up two.
The NFL ought to put two teams in London
Both sharing Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. The time difference between New York City and London is five hours during the season, one hour more than Cal had to play Pitt yesterday. Put the two teams in the same division with New England and the two New York teams. A five-team division. Divisional opponents play each other twice anyway. Fast Planes and G-Men play in the same stadium already, just like the London "Lions" and the England "Royals" will. Flight time NYC to London, 7 hrs 10 mins; Boston-London, 6 hrs 40 mins; NYC-LA, 6 hrs 5 mins. 🤷♂️ It'd be easy, incredibly lucrative, and would make the NFL the first international sports league.
P-G
Five takeaways: Pitt football keeps finding new ways to win
Cardiac cats
...Once again, when not at their best, the Panthers emerged with a victory, and that’s a skill. [true, that]
Aggressiveness on 4th down
Need points? Better 📞 Sauls
Pitt has a first-team All-American … at kicker
Keeping with the aggressive theme, Pitt decided to send Ben Sauls out for a 58-yard field goal with 10:04 left in the second quarter. When Sauls confidently knocked it through, he tied school records for longest field goal and consecutive field goals made without a miss.
Sauls has been a legitimate offensive weapon for the Panthers this season, something very few teams can say about their placekicker. He still hasn’t missed a field goal or extra point attempt and is putting together a first-team All-American caliber season while etching his name in the Pitt record books.
(Pittsburgh Post-Gazette)
Saturday, October 12, 2024
FT KY Jelly 13 Vanderbilt 20
Elle Esse Eww and Olé Miss are headed to OT down on the Bayou. Mazel tov Chinese Tiger Bandits, Johnny Reb, I's goin' to bed.
KY Jelly 13 Vandy 20, 7:02 4Q
K, KY, just score 14 more points in 7' and you can make a liar out of me.
KY Jelly 7 Vandee-dee-dee-dee 20, 8:47 4Q
I'd like to call up the head of Caesar's Sportsbook and say, "Boss, jus' susplain this line you set." I sincerely would love to hear his answer.
TOUCHDOWN "GATORS"! Now, do they go for 2 and the W now or take the peep and go to OT?
Me, if I'm Billy Naps, my boys have come up here to Neyland Stadium and 100,000 checkerboards, they deserve to play an OT.
Okay, I'm counting my chickens
Pitt's Schedule
HT KY Jelly 7 'DORES! 14
My goodness, somebody musta put some alcohol in Rocky Top's booze
Tn. (8) 0 FU 10, 4:30 3Q.
The "Vols" are shut out over 40:30!👀😳
Poor Purdoofus. FT Illinoise (23) 50-49 OT
There's another team right behind Pitt. That was an "ugly" win at home, in OT, over a far (1-5) uglier team than the Bad Luck Bears. The "Illinis" were 21.5 point faves. Are they going to continue to "hover" in "the '20's" with us?
NJ.com
Blame Greg Schiano for Rutgers’ no-show loss to Wisconsin
The boos started with 19 seconds left in the first quarter...Greg Schiano did not have his team ready...a performance that would cast serious doubt on the direction of his program.
Steve Politi is a long-time, admitted critic of Schiano.
AP
Wisconsin embarrasses Rutgers 42-7
Yep.
The Scarlet Knights came into the game as the favorites and they were awful. They couldn't run the ball. Receivers dropped passes. They had a bad snap on a late field goal attempt in the second quarter. The playcalling was not imaginative and the vaunted defense could not stop the run, allowing 309 on the ground.
Yep.
AP
Desmond Reid scores twice and No. 22 Pitt remains unbeaten by fending off Cal 17-15
The Panthers improved to 6-0 for the first time since 1982 by relying on a defense that racked up six sacks on a day their revamped offense struggled. Pitt managed just 277 total yards — nearly 250 below its season average coming in — and did next to nothing in the second half.
Still, Pitt hung on as Cal (3-3, 0-3 ACC) let a couple of late opportunities slip away. Ryan Coe's go-ahead 40-yard field goal attempt with 1:54 left was a low wobbler that sailed wide right. The Bears got the ball back with 44 seconds remaining but failed to generate a first down as Pitt reached bowl eligibility a year after a 3-9 season led longtime head coach Pat Narduzzi to overhaul the offensive coaching staff.
The arrival of offensive coordinator Kade Bell and his up-tempo attack has shoved Pitt into the 21st century, but for most of a crisp fall afternoon, the Panthers defense led the way.
...Cal remained winless in the ACC. Cal's three losses in its new conference home have been by a combined seven points.
Pitt redshirt freshman quarterback Eli Holstein's electric start hit its first significant speedbump. The Alabama transfer was held in check, completing just 14 of 28 passes for 133 yards. He also threw a pair of interceptions in Cal territory in the third quarter when the Panthers were in position to extend their lead.
Still, Pitt found a way to win behind Reid — who followed Bell to Pitt from Western Carolina — and some aggressive decision-making in the first half.
Pitt opted to go for it on fourth-and-1 from its own 28 early in the first quarter. Holstein appeared intent on simply drawing the Bears offside before shifting the alignment and handing off to Reid,
[I wonder if Bell's intent all the time was to go for it. Try to draw them off, sure. But if that doesn't work, quickly shift and give it to Dez. I bet it was.]
who darted 72 yards for a touchdown. On Pitt's next drive the Panthers let kicker Ben Sauls attempt a 58-yard field goal that the senior drilled through the uprights, the longest made field goal by a college player at Acrisure Stadium.
[In trouble? Better Call Sauls.]
The takeaway
Cal: The snakebit Bears, 🙏coming off a late collapse last week against Miami, were often their own worst enemy. Cal was called for 12 penalties for 110 yards, including eight for 90 yards in the first half alone.
Poll implications
The Panthers will likely hover in the 20s 😠when the poll is released on Sunday after an ugly, grind-it-out affair.
[We're already in the low-20's!]
Man, shout-out and hug-wrap to our new brothers in the Airplane Conference. This is three excruciating L's for them in league play. And we would have gone to overtime if they hadn't gone for two on their first TD. Maybe they don't have a reliable kicker, even for PAT's, for that was a weird decision in the 1Q. If they had kicked one there, and then kicked one on their last TD, we'd be tied 17-17. On Eli Holstein's worst day by far as Pitt QB. Bad Luck Bears. Really feel for them, happy as I am with this INCREDIBLE WIN! (Man, did the bookies nail that line?) Pitt, you just get the sense, is going to win the game no matter what. 6-0!
Oh! Holstein has thrown 2 INTs!
Oh, one was a pass into the Cal end zone from their 31! Eli is not having a good game, 13/27, 126 yds, and the two picks.
God Damn the Pusher Man. Cal TD. Pitt 17-15 (2-pt failed), 10:30 4Q
NOW COME ON OFFENSE! WE NEED A TD! C'MON ELI! C'MON DEZ!
End 3Q in a lonely field beyond Fort Pitt: "Panthers" 17 California 9
No scoring (obviously) in that quarter. It is still a one-score game. The predicted scores one way or the other were low-30's for the winner, high-20's for the trump. It may still get there but I have been impressed by Pitt's D but a little uneasy now that our O hasn't given us a little cushion.
Yep
PISCATAWAY – At first, it was a sprinkling of boos. With each dropped pass, or badly thrown ball, or stuffed run up the middle, the chorus got louder.
Eventually, it was raining jeers as the Rutgers football team’s offense racked up a comedy of errors in Saturday’s 42-7 shellacking by Wisconsin. The bad vibes simmered down midway through the third quarter as much of the crowd of about 32,000 sprinted for the exits.
HT USC 20 PSU (4) 6
Little Game James, Jet Lag James.
SC also had a 42-yard INT return that set up a FG. PSU cannot stop the "Trojans" from running no matter the circumstances. Joyner is 2/78, Marks 9/69. Still only a two-score game, "half-time adjustments", etc. but PSU hasn't scored a TD, two FGs. Yeah, they have to adjust something.
My goodness, now 17-3 SC over PSU (4)
I haven't mentioned Tx (1)-OU (18) because there wasn't much happening, unlike the other games. Tx leads 7-3, 10:47 2Q.
Oh boy! SC 14-3 PSU (4), 5:37 2Q
PSU cannot stop USC's run! Quinten Joyner a 75-yard run for their first TD; on this drive, Woody Marks for 12, Woody Marks for 21, next play, Woody Marks for 28. Unbelievable. Jet-lag, James?
THERE GO DES! 14-6 "Panthers", 13:47 2Q
On 4th and 1 from the Pitt 28, a 72-yard run. Must have been a fake punt. Did they really go for it on 4th and 1 from their own 28 early in the 2Q up only 7-6? It was either/or and both are beyond balsy.
Oh. My. God.
NC tied it 34-34 on a field goal after the punt. Tyoo plays later GT won it on a 68-yard TD pass with 16 secs left. *hand over mouth*. NC has now lost FOUR straight.
Iowa is clobbering W in I 40-10, 3:03 4Q
2' left in Apple Chill, 'Eels 31 Yellow Rambling Jacket Wrecks 34, GT with ball (actually about to punt). Brown Macks have lost three straight.
Wake for the Forest. FT 14-49 IPTAY.
FT Rutgers 7 Wisconsin 42
The most disillusioning L in Schiano's second stint in the Armpit of America.
THEY'VE GOT THE BALL AGAIN! RUTGERS 47. ANOTHER 3-AND-OUT BY R!
Man, I bet the boo birds are chirping in Piscataway. Rutgers was about a point favorite in this one.
COCKS! Bama 14 COCKS! 19, 5:17 3Q
don't worry, Bama, you have jalen milroe, he will pull you through.
COCKS! HT Bama (7) 14 Cocks! 12
HT Woke 14 IPTAY (10) 28
HT Iowa 20 W 10
HT Ruptures 0 Boogers 14
HT NC 14 GT 20
Missouri (21) is playing AT Massachusetts. 👏 Mizzou
That is so strange. UMass' stadium, officially Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium, popularly The Junkyard, seats 17,000 minutemen. Why in the world would Mizzou agree to play there?
Good Logos
That's "Dodgers" elegant. The dull gold is not great.
I really like Smoo's Pony.
Distinctive, iconic, is there are stronger letter in the English alphabet than the T? I don't think so. The burnt orange makes it unmistakable.
Tx -17
Okay, that enormous jump on game day is due to OU missing five wide receivers. Nine total "Sooners" are out for this game; Tx is missing three total. I'm passing on this game. My only play of the day is Vandy getting -13.5 at KY Jelly. Invested a nickel on the 'Dores to lose by 13 or less. The line is down to -12.5. Game's at 7:45 so I have no financial interest in anything till then.
Reminder to self: I'm up $25 on season.
Tx-Ou
In the 23 games played this millennium 8 have been more one-sided than the line for this one. Last year no. 12 OU upset the Longs, no. 3, 34-30. In 2022, Venables' first year, Tx hooked 'em bad, 49-0. Both teams were unranked. 2021 OU (6) 55 Tx (21) 48. 2020, OU 53 Tx (22) 45 in 4 OT. 15 is way outside the norm historically and recently. Speak to me gut.
Man, 15 is a big line. Tx has beaten ONE team, it was impressive, more impressive at the time, 31-12 over 'Eens in M, 10th-ranked then. M's now 24th. I don't know that M is even 24th best. New coach, who knows? Anyway, that's T's resume--for no. 1. I would have bet Sarkisian would never get the Longs here. He's turned into a good coach, though.
Okay, so that's T. Okies, not sold on Venables. Third year. Okies have a less impressive offer sheet. They've played one game. At home. To Tn. And they lost.
Tx has got more talent than any team in the country. I'm just not sold on of either of these teams or coaches. I'm tilted only because of that line. My gut's not speaking to me yet. It is murmering though. Just took another half adderall to help draw it out.
Continuing our popular series, Stupid Logos
Is it Oklahoma University or the University of Oklahoma? The latter, but they're Okies so they got their logo backwards.
Why is incorporation of the U so irresistible in university logos? To avoid confusion with the NFL team in Oklahoma?
Miami Gardens does away with the M and G altogether.
Auburn, tellingly, gives the A prominence over the U.
I don't mind this one so much. There's an attempt to meld the two letters together. It's a fail, but like the L.A. "Dodgers" logo, which is tremendous, there's the attempt.
Anyway, those are all stupid. Kentucky's is dumb.
What the fuck?
Utah has had a devil of a time in Hairy Boner the last two weeks but I come not to mourn the Utes but to excoriate them. And Houston. These two awful "universities", the first the home of cold fusion, the second representing the city known as Cow Town, have the most unimaginative, confusing logos that it's a wonder they're not running into each other on the football field. And they're in the same conference! And they play each other! This year on Oct. 26. Fuck the Utes and the Cows.
Friday, October 11, 2024
'Nother Record
George Conway
@gtconway3d
don’t know how much more of this horrible economic news I can take it’s like we all already live in Detroit smh