Lake Mistake, creditable team this year, fifth in the East, 20-15 record were upset in the Pawn Shop by 12th place ATL, 15-19, 121-118. Cleve was a 2-point fave. The records respectively are now 20-16 and 16-19. Miami is 4th, now 23-13, 3 games ahead of Cleve and only 1.5 out of first. "Heat" have won five straight and eight of ten. It's an inspiring run. They've played dreck for the most part but they've had big problems with player availability. Bam, still out. Jimmy just back and had a monster game; Kyle just back and had a "bad Kyle" game. This is a tribute to "Heat" talent scouting. "Next man up" is the credo and they seemingly have an endless supply of "rustless bolts" to plug in when a main bolt blows. 23-13 is a .639 win rate and anything over .600 is damn good. .639 is seventh-best in the entire Association. Full two-handed clap for "Heat" resiliency.
Friday, December 31, 2021
#2 UGA 17 #3 Michigan 0, 9:55 2Q
Gonna have an all-SEC final, we are. No way "Wolves" come back from seventeen down against this "Bulldog" defense.
Cowtown Getting Shut Down by the 305
The "Rockets" are misfiring like Trumpee's limpy dick. 65-49 MIA 2' before the half.
Bama Blows Out Cincy
...Didn't even realize the national championship semi-finals were played today. Argh. One-seed Alabama beat 4-Cincinnati, the first team from outside the five biggest, richest conferences to make it, 27-6. The "Bearcats" managed only two measly field goals in the game.
#2 Georgia leads #3 Meeshagan 7-0 half-way through the first quarter.
Sergey V. Lavrov accused the United States and its
allies of stoking a conflict in the country’s east...
...after President Biden and Mr. Putin of Russia spoke for about 50 minutes on Thursday, Yuri V. Ushakov, Mr. Putin’s foreign policy adviser,... told journalists in a briefing early Friday in Moscow,“In principle, we are satisfied with the contact, the negotiations, because they have an open, substantive, concrete character.""Just hours after," the Times reports, foreign minister Sergey Lavrov told the Russian Information Agency,
“The civil war in Ukraine, ongoing for eight years, is far from over. The country’s authorities don’t intend to resolve the conflict” through diplomacy...
Lavrov stole that line directly from Adolph Hitler.
“Unfortunately, we see the United States and other NATO nations supporting the militaristic intentions of Kyiv, provisioning Ukraine with weapons and sending military specialists,” Mr. Lavrov said.
The Times reporter, Andrew E. Kramer:
,,,Mr. Lavrov’s remarks were the latest in a series of conflicting commentary from the Kremlin that has seesawed between ominous and conciliatory, sometimes within the space of a few days. Earlier in December, Mr. Putin said Moscow might resort to “military technical” means, referring to the use of force, if talks failed.
...
Mr. Lavrov’s comments later in the day, in contrast, revived a more confrontational tone. ...
I acknowledge that I am out of my league in interpreting diplomatic language and drawing conclusions. I have acknowledged this in the past. Still, I'm writing this and I don't 100% (only...90%?) trust American reporting on Russia, so for what it is worth I do not see clear "conflicting commentary" or "seesawing." Are we not "provisioning Ukraine with weapons and sending military specialists"? I got tired in writing about the "complete rupture" article and didn't excerpt some other accounts of American actions and statements. Here's one directly on point to Lavrov's remark:
The Biden administration, like the Trump administration before it, has provided hundreds of millions of dollars in aid to the Ukrainian military to fund what it characterizes as purely defensive arms, including anti-tank missiles to repel a threatened Russian invasion. Russia has called those offensive weapons that threaten its own forces.
And this is my overarching point: why are we involved in Ukraine at all? That sounds callous, they were invaded by Russia after they attempted to move West in the Euromaidan movement in 2014, but Ukraine is not even a NATO member, it was once independent, then annexed by the U.S.S.R., then given back its independence by Khrushchev but still, of course, kept in the Soviet orbit. Putin rushed to tell Condoleeza Rice when he heard her mention the word, "Ukraine is ours." It was not, but neither was it then, or is it now, ours. And on the advent of Euromaidan Putin made sure it would not be in the American/E.U. orbit and would remain Russia's. By what right have we "provided hundreds of millions of dollars to the Ukrainian military"? Are we so dense that we do not see that that is compelling evidence of Russian accusations of an intent to encircle, completely consistent with NATO's expansion east after the collapse of the U.S.S.R. rather than its disbandment.
After Russian troops massed near the Ukrainian border over the fall, officials in Moscow repeatedly characterized the eastern Ukraine conflict as a pressing security concern for Russia...Where is the "pressing security concern for" the U.S. in Urkaine?
Here's another excerpt from "complete rupture":
...Jake Sullivan, Mr. Biden’s national security adviser, said in a talk at the Council on Foreign Relations that the flow of arms to Ukraine would continue, raising the potential cost of an invasion and occupation. ...
One final addendum from "complete rupture":
While the tone of the call was constructive, according to the Kremlin aide, Mr. Putin repeated his claims that Russia felt threatened by an encroaching NATO. He said that Russia would “conduct itself as the United States would behave if offensive weapons were near the United States.”
1) Where is the "seesawing"? Where the "conflicting commentary"? 2) Isn't Putin correct? In the Cuban Missile Crisis under JFK how did the U.S. "conduct itself" when the U.S.S.R. secretly "provisioned" Cuba with missiles which we called offensive and Khrushchev called defensive?
Does It Mean War?
Putin is rerunning the film of 1939 with Ukraine playing the part of Austria (and Czechoslovakia and Poland) and Joe Biden, in Putin's casting, standing in for Neville Chamberlain. In place of lebensraum Putin's aim is to reconstitute the Soviet empire in Central and Easter Europe. He is using the same tactics of Hitler, making demands that he knows are unacceptable,
Russia’s demands are so sweeping that many political analysts view them as untenable, signifying either a bargaining chip for Russia or a justification for war when its demands are inevitably rejected.
making the arguments of "encirclement", for inclusion of ethnic Russians or Russian speakers in a Greater Russia, and manufacturing "incidents" to justify full invasion of Ukraine.
... By massing troops on the border and then publishing two draft treaties that had echoes of Cold War-era demands, Mr. Putin created an international crisis and made plain his desire to wind back the clock 30 years, to just before the collapse of the Soviet Union. He demanded that Ukraine halt its embrace of the West, that the United States and its allies halt all military activity in Eastern Europe and Central Asia and that NATO freeze its expansion to the east and roll back military deployments near Russia’s borders.
Putin knows, as Hitler knew of France and Britain, that NATO cannot stop him without recourse to tactical nuclear weapons, that the United States will not engage in nuclear war with Russia over Ukraine, or indeed over the Baltic states or, I hope, over Poland, NATO Article 5 be damned.
...Mr. Putin is dealing from a strong hand: He demonstrated in 2014, with the annexation of Crimea, his willingness to pick off Russian-speaking territory. And he is confident that the United States and its NATO allies will not commit forces to the task of pushing back.
He is thus, in the words of this article, attempting to divine Biden's "red line" for U.S.-Russia nuclear war. Biden has repeatedly said, to Putin and publicly, that no nuclear war is winnable.
President Biden has set down a clear "red line" and the consequences for overstepping it with a further Russian invasion of Ukraine:
Mr. Biden has attempted...to deter Russia with unusually specific warnings about imposing a series of sanctions that would go far beyond what the West agreed upon in 2014, after the Russian annexation of Crimea. The new sanctions under consideration range from cutting Russia off from the system of global financial settlements to imposing new restrictions on American and Western semiconductors, which Russia employs for its military modernization.
And Putin:
...warned President Biden...that any economic sanctions imposed on Russia if it moves to take new military action against Ukraine could result in a “complete rupture” of relations between the two nuclear superpowers, a Russian official told reporters on Thursday. evening.
"Complete rupture", hmm. That doesn't seem to this non-diplomatist to mean nuclear war but I don't know what it does mean. Is Putin really so dense that he does not understand that to Americans not playing in the same sandbox with the Russians is our most fervent dream. A "complete rupture" in relations? Beat me whip me!
[Putin foreign policy advisor Yuri] Ushakov said Mr. Putin warned that any new, harsh sanctions would be a mistake, and that, as Mr. Ushakov put it, “in this situation, it’s better not to make such mistakes.”
That is clearer in the language of diplomacy on military confrontation (albeit still vague and not implicating nuclear war).
I think the Americans are naive, and wrong, here:
...American officials believe that Mr. Putin has not yet decided to order the invasion — and may still be convinced to back off. So they have made public their plans for extreme economic sanctions if an invasion starts, while signaling they are open to diplomacy.
It is Putin's fondest dream to reconstitute the U.S.S.R. whose dissolution he has called "the greatest geostrategic catastrophe of the 20th century."
No, it does not mean war as in end-of-world World War III. It certainly means continuing aggressive war by Russia in Ukraine and, in my read anyway, means a 50-50 chance of conventional war with the U.S. via NATO.
Thursday, December 30, 2021
FT #12 Pitt 21 #10 Michigan State 31
A prestigious bowl game matching elite teams was was reduced to a second-tier contest when the marquee players of both teams, running back Kenneth Walker III of Michigan State, and especially Kenny Pickett of Pitt, playing the most important position on the field, forewent the game to prepare for the NFL draft. Pitt head man Pat Narduzzi started Nick Patti in Pickett's place and quickly pulled Patti for Davis Beville. The
would have won the game handily if Pickett had played, even with KWIII also in there, but could not prowl with backup QB's, even against the worst passing defense in the B1G.
Pitt took a 21-10 lead into the 4th quarter but after MSU's game-winning touchdown Pitt's Vincent David committed a capital offense by fair catching the kickoff on the Pitt 1-yard line with 2:14 to play. Still, Bevis passed complete on five straight attempts to get Pitt down to the MSU 26 but on 1st and 10 Narduzzi and Beville went to the well once too often and the pass was intercepted for a 78-yard pick-six to account for the final score.would have won the game handily if Pickett had played, even with KWIII also in there, but could not prowl with backup QB's, even against the worst passing defense in the B1G.Pickett's defection rendered Pitt a colorless shadow of itself and drained the game of interest for me. I did not follow it. The
finished their season with a sparkling 11-3 record and MSU 11-2. Congratulations on superb seasons to Michigan State, and to my beloved Pitt
.
finished their season with a sparkling 11-3 record and MSU 11-2. Congratulations on superb seasons to Michigan State, and to my beloved Pitt.
M. Garrett :( and D-Ro :) Out Friday re Protocols; J-But "Questionable" :l
Is it normal COVID protocol for a player with a pre-existing shooting condition to be put into a medically induced coma and his body packed in ice and transported to Boston? Asking for a friend.
Beans Shot 4/42 From Three-Point Arc, Lost
That's 9.5% for you math freaks. MAN. I don't know if maybe Boston wants Duncan Robinson to come up and help them with that...
Wednesday, December 29, 2021
Some people believe what I believe about Manchin:
It's hard for me to believe that Manchin would admit that on radio. I was not able to source it on Tara Golshan's page bc I ain't got a twitter account. I am suspicious of that tweet.
This series of tweets are the most ominous to me. AOC urges Biden to use his executive power to get a lot of BBB passed. Remember the trillion dollar coin? They went woolly in the knees on that. The president has been betrayed by Manchin in the legislative process. Why can't he sign into law all the parts of BBB with a series of executive orders that require no legislative approval? I'm sincerely asking for somebody to tell me why a president can't do that. "The president proposes, Congress disposes." "Congress has the power of the purse strings.” Okay fine, sign the executive orders and let them file suit against the executive branch on the grounds that a president has no such power. If we don’t are we supposed to just take this?! I say no.
AOC also urges the president to break the filibuster so that oh-by-the-way voting rights legislation can pass. This is so ominous to me because I think Biden himself is going to betray progressives on both executive orders and the filibuster.
I never understood why the president didn't pass (or try to) voting rights first. Congresswoman, with all respect ma’am, and all concern for the quality of life of your constituents, compared to that--"that" being the future of D.I.A.--I don't give two shits about bridges and roads and child support and the social safety net in your district, Manchin’s state, or anywhere else. Biden didn't go for voting rights protection, put it on the backburner, for bridges and roads, and has been wishy-washy on breaking the filibuster. Manchin came out four-square against filibuster reform. With the president not fighting for it, how in the name of heaven do you think voting rights protection is going to pass? Could Biden sign an executive order eliminating R’s voting restrictions? Tell me why not. Does he have a pen in the Oval Office? Yes. Does he have a sheet of paper? THEN FUCKING SIGN AN EXECUTIVE ORDER INVALIDATING R’s VOTING RESTRICTIONS! What do we have to lose except our democracy. Congresswoman, fellow peogressives, you are being ROLLED AGAIN. The president has not signed such a voting rights executive order up to this point and has shelved the issue in favor of bridges and roads. He is NOT going to sign such an executive order. To hit this nail squarely on the head, JOE BIDEN IS NOT COMMITTED TO PROTECTING VOTING RIGHTS.
I Hate Joe Manchin
This deserves at least more attention than I have given it. Manchin lied to President Biden. Misled him, then stabbed him in the back. This statement is spot on.
Somebody got to Manchin, offered him a bunch of money to kill the bill. Big Coal, Republicans, others, either or, all of the above. I have no evidence of that besides circumstantial, but that is the only reasonable explanation given the history laid out by Psaki and the last minute switch. This is a betrayal that just reeks of corruption. I have no direct evidence, but I believe it based on the circumstances.
Jimmy Butler Hurt Again, Game Postponed
Ankle this time. With injuries and protocols of others in addition Miami didn't have the requisite eight players for tonight's game.
Butler has played a full slate of games once in his twelve-year career, his second season with Chicago in 2012/13. Since then he has appeared in 67, 65, 67, 76, 59, and 65 of the normal 82-game seasons and in 58 (of 73) and 52 (of 72) in the COVID-shortened 2019/20 and 2020/21 seasons. Pathetic.
Inflation is an emotional subject. No other topic I write about generates as much hate mail.
...Be damned. In a generation that lived through the 1970's and 1980's I knew it was fearful, it scares me, but "hate mail"? I had no idea.
Who deserves empathy? Is showing empathy a burden? I don’t think empathy is a burden, and I’m not trying to say who deserves it. I’m saying that I can’t. If God says, “Nikki, I gotta write this check on you because you hate,” I would say, “I understand, because I do hate.” I hate Donald Trump. I hate what he’s done to our nation. So I will pay for my hatred. I don’t mind.-Nikki Giovanni.
There is conflict, agayne, in the reporting by even the most reputable media outlets on COVID-19. This is from the New York Times on Dec. 19:
...only the Pfizer and Moderna shots, when reinforced by a booster, appear to have initial success at stopping infections...
...
The Pfizer and Moderna shots use the new mRNA technology, which has consistently offered the best protection against infection with every variant.
How can that be true when on Dec. 28 the U.S., with 62% total population vaxed, overwhelmingly with Pfizer and Moderna, had more new infections than on Jan. 12 when comparatively nobody was vaxed with anything?
Two days later, in the same newspaper:
Some infectious disease experts say it is simply not possible now to stop the virus from spreading...
Preventing infection completely...is “not a winnable battle.”-Dr. Luciana Borio, a former acting chief scientist for the Food and Drug Administration.
The record came only a day after the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reduced the number of days that infected Americans should remain isolated to five days from 10. The C.D.C. changed course as Omicron’s rapid spread has worsened a labor shortage, upending the hospitality, medical and travel industries, among others. The agency did not recommend rapid testing before people left isolation, and experts warned that that omission risked seeding new cases and heaping even more pressure on already overburdened health systems.
Tuesday, December 28, 2021
FT: Miami 119 Wash. 112
It was the“Heat’s” 4th win in a row and 6th in the last 7. They now have a 22-13 record, .a 657 win clip. The record will bee discounted, “Yeah but it was a COVID season,” like our run to the Finals, “Yeah, that was the bubble season." The virus does effect teams asymmetrically, D.C. was without 8 players tonight, I get it. But the “Heat” have not succumbed, Pat Riley would not tolerate it, “next man up” is the philosophy in 601 Biscayne and the “Heat” have implemented that philosophy. In minutes played the starters were Butler with 36, Gabe Vincent, started and played 35, Duncan Robinson started and played 35, and Tyler Herro came on the bench and played 35. O. Yurtseven rpounded the starting five in minutes played with 32. Are you kidding me, Gabe Vincent and O. Yurtseven?
Miami is a strong-willed organization with a no excuses ethos. If the game is played you’re expected to win it and contribute to the win in Miami and 66% of the time this season they have done it. This, among other characteristics, some not as admiral, is #HeatCulture. It is inspiring and so far this season inspiring in its success. The Miami "Heat" deserve applause for these 35 games.
Oh my goodness.
@TheMiamiHeatUK
Very early start tomorrow so no in-game comms tonight.
Tomorrow: End of Year Quiz Special
Thurs: Gameday From The UK LIVE & in-game commentary vs San Antonio
#HEATCulture
6:35 PM · Dec 28, 2021·Twitter for Android
Very early start indeed! 12:30 a.m. in the UK. Clap out to @TheMiamiHeatUK.
"I call BS."
I sent my issue and my baby's mamma the excerpted article on the CDC "revision" (4:03 pm post),
Last week, the C.D.C. said that Omicron accounted for approximately 73 percent of variants circulating in the United States in the week ending Dec. 18. But in its revision, the agency said the variant accounted for about 23 percent of cases that week.
In other words, Delta, which has dominated U.S. infections since summer, still reigned in the United States that week.
Oh. That's not good.
That could mean that a significant number of current Covid hospitalizations were driven by infections from Delta, Dr. Scott Gottlieb, a former commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration, suggested on Twitter. Hospitalizations typically lag several weeks behind initial infections.
Experts said they were not surprised by the revisions...they said the C.D.C. did a poor job communicating the uncertainty of its estimates.
Oh, so we still suck.
...
“The 73 percent got a lot more attention than the confidence intervals, and I think this is one example among many where scientists are trying to project an air of confidence about what’s going to happen,” said David O’Connor, a virologist at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.
...
More precise numbers will be needed to smartly distribute Covid treatments.
...And the NYT graphs from 12:48:
My son responded:
I call BS. It’s clear that cases have increased but that percentage of hospitalizations and/or deaths is way down. Indicating that Omicron is the reigning strain. If we saw the same ratio of cases to hospitalizations/deaths that we saw during peak delta than I’d agree. But no, all data I’ve seen shows a more infectious and less severe version of Covid aka omicron and not delta. Then again, wtf do I know.
Son, that was sooo reasoned and rational! *clap* 👏🏻 *clap* VERY good points! CDC can’t count and YOU are being modest?😂
I think he's right. The cases number has far exceeded Delta's high but the H-number plateaued a bit in the last couple of iterations and is nowhere near as high as H's at peak-Delta. And the D-number has fallen in the last few iterations--after a plateauing. I wrote back to my son that the humongous caseload is not baked into the H and D numbers yet but reiterated what I have written here a couple of times, that there is just no way--nor are they expected--that H's and D's will rise to peak-Delta levels. And I wrote to him that CDC had lots of critics when it came out with that 73% O figure, and now it will have more. 23% does not represent a "revision," it is, as NYT appropriately termed it, a "slash." More, it is CDC's admission that it can't count. All to say, and I do not think anyone other than my son has said it, CDC's numbers are "BS"; taken together the three graphs do not look like Delta. They look like something new, Omicron.
Last week, the C.D.C. said that Omicron accounted for approximately 73 percent of variants circulating in the United States in the week ending Dec. 18. But in its revision, the agency said the variant accounted for about 23 percent of cases that week.
In other words, Delta, which has dominated U.S. infections since summer, still reigned in the United States that week.
Oh. That's not good.
That could mean that a significant number of current Covid hospitalizations were driven by infections from Delta, Dr. Scott Gottlieb, a former commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration, suggested on Twitter. Hospitalizations typically lag several weeks behind initial infections.
Experts said they were not surprised by the revisions...they said the C.D.C. did a poor job communicating the uncertainty of its estimates.
Oh, so we still suck.
“The 73 percent got a lot more attention than the confidence intervals, and I think this is one example among many where scientists are trying to project an air of confidence about what’s going to happen,” said David O’Connor, a virologist at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.
...
More precise numbers will be needed to smartly distribute Covid treatments.
lol
“We can’t stop it"
Excellent article. Makes all the points on O: speed; less serious--"incidental COVID"; the downside of restrictions--on the economy--in extending the wave, disruptions--for what?--of travel, sports, etc. The consequences of O are going to be more severe in the U.S. than in Israel and the British Isles--but because their people are more "responsible" in getting vaxed. Excellent article.
That daunting notion — backed by data from nations where Omicron is spreading rapidly only a month after it was first detected — is tempered by early evidence that the variant causes milder symptoms, with vaccinations and boosters helping prevent serious illness and death.
Experts worldwide have expressed concern that the sheer number of people likely infected could create a flood of patients, overwhelming already stressed health care systems. But that concern is running up against those who argue that it is time to accept that the virus is endemic, and that countries should move away from lockdowns and toward more relaxed rules, including shorter quarantines.
John Bell, a professor of medicine at Oxford University and an adviser to the British government, said that Omicron was “not the same disease we were seeing a year ago.”
“The horrific scenes that we saw a year ago of intensive care units being full, lots of people dying prematurely, that is now history, in my view, and I think we should be reassured that that’s likely to continue,” he told the BBC on Tuesday.
Britain appears to be a few weeks ahead of most other nations in confronting the first wave of Omicron infection and, for the moment, has decided that the evidence does not warrant new restrictions.
...
Chris Hopson, the head of N.H.S. Providers, the membership organization for England’s health staff, said that while hospitalizations across Britain had risen, it was not a precipitous jump....“Some are describing this as ‘incidental Covid.’”
Professor Paul Hunter, an infectious disease expert at the University of East Anglia, said the approach to the current rise is a complicated one.
“If health services are likely to come under such pressure that they could collapse then implementing control measures now would be the right thing to do,” he wrote in a post on Twitter. “But tighter control measures carry a real risk, and not just to mental health, the economy, etc.” Forcing a change in behavior would not prevent infections, just delay them, he said. So further restrictions now would reduce the peak of a surge in cases and could ease short-term pressure on health services, but also extend the wave, he added.
...
With or without regulations to curb the spread of the virus, positive test results are disrupting businesses around the world. Over the Christmas holidays, Omicron wreaked havoc on global travel, entertainment and sporting events.
COVID-19 BIDEN+341 (Dec 27)
The staggering 543,415 is almost double the highest number of daily cases ever recorded in the U.S. The weekly average of daily cases is close to and will likely exceed with the Dec. 28 stats the highest number of average daily cases on Jan. 12, 2021.
Hospitalizations are gently rising and deaths have actually declined precipitously in the last few iterations.
Over two weeks while cases have exploded by 105%, H’s are +18% and deaths are off 5%. To a degree the intervals between case and hospitalization, and hospitalization to death are at work in those exceedingly varying numbers. However, there is no doubt that these variances are more attributable to Omicron’s comparatively minimal lethality.
Based purely on anecdotal evidence it seems to me that most Americans are not going to have their lives or their psyches altered by COVID-19 any longer. If true, this goes for all Americans, the government yes-men like me, and the anti-gov types. That is, responsible Americans got fully vaxed when the time came; got boostered when those were recommended; relaxed masking and social distancing when Dr. Walensky told us we could; re-masked and distanced when a nano-second later she said we could. Wewill continue to be responsible.
The anti-gov types, Mr. President, just stop. There is nothing you can do to. What, after two years Cambrians have been studying this, reading the scientific literature and the CDC updates and get turn now because "Omicron is different"? Hmm, no. They will defy, defy, until they die.
There are the mini-defiers. My son is one of those. He was our family's go-to source for the latest on the virus in the early going. A year later though he got fully vaxed only with family prodding. "I'm not going to get boosted," he said a few weeks ago. "Why?" "Defiance." My pharmacist is another.mini-defier. Fully vaxed, used to be masked every time I went in to his store, he told me, in full mask, "I got the booster and I felt like shit for five days. I ain't wearing a mask for anybody." This was before I had gotten the booster.
The friends of the Second Unfortunate Ex-Wife of the undersigned is another. Tradition is for this extended fam to get together each Christmas Eve for a big dinner party. I have been invited and have attended every year for several years. And I RSVP'd this year. Had every intention of going. Took a bath and had my red dress shirt and Christmas tie laid out and everything. It's a loud, affectionate group. I have no idea how many are "responsible" in the above sense, but I knew they were going to be huggy and kissy and wouldn't be masked. I talked to my son mid-afternoon that day and asked how many people he thought would be there and was reassured that his impression was it was going to be a smaller group than usual. "Okay, call or text me when you have a bead on the time of the sitdown." "Will do." When the text came I started to get dressed and then paused. Call to son: "Son, how many people are there now?" Over loud background vocals, "I don't know, fifteen." Voice indistinct as he moved phone away from mouth to survey, he rattled off some names, a couple from upstate New York, a woman from NYC. "Yeah, about fifteen." "I ain't comin'. "What's the problem? You're boosted, fully vaxed..." "Omicron. I am so invested in not getting this thing that I will loose it if I do." "I understand, that's the responsible thing to do." "Whisper this to mom. I don't want to make anybody feel guilty." "Okay."
There may be more categories. Three is just the number that is more or less compelled of pencils, professional and amateur, The point is people have decided. There is a psychic block to digesting new information and a psychic need to re-start digesting only information relevant to our pre-pandemic lives.
In 1918 Woodrow Wilson ignored the Spanish Flu. Never once addressed it publicly. Had a war to fight. He contracted it during the Peace Talks in 1919 and the consensus among historians is that his resolve on his "14 Points" was compromised. Wilson Capitulates in Paris
And he developed an "influenza psychosis." He became paranoid about furniture, cars, etc. A few months later he suffered a stroke.
Trump ignored coronavirus and I was surprised to read that as a political gambit it largely worked. I did read that, maybe it is not true, it was a surprise to me, but that was prominently in print at one point.
True or not, isn't it your sense that the only times guaranteed when coronavirus will be the "WAR IS DECLARED" lede are when President Biden speaks on it? His last was not well-received, for excellent reasons. "It is what it is" is the mind-numbing banality. "It's water under the bridge", "Nothing we can do" are the obvious conclusions. I don't see any good that Wilson, Trump, or Biden did or can do on the public health aspect of the virus (and its twin, the economy). And we don't need a reminder that he too has failed. I think he ought to let it go. Most Americans, it seems to me, have.
Monday, December 27, 2021
"Dancing Queen"
I'm watching the 1982 Orange Bowl (cuz I can) and they have the obligatory cute-chick crowd shot. Look at that 'Do!
You didn't have to wear your hair in a blow-dried poof back then--only if you wanted a boyfriend. It was ubiquitous. And the guys? 'Stache. You had to have a moustache and a hairy chest a la Burt Reynolds if you wanted to get girls like a porn star.
.533
The "Heat" have won three straight, stand at 21-13 on the season, good for fourth place in the East, only 2.5 games out of first. Their win percentage this season is .618. That has raised their post-LeBron rate from .528 at the beginning of 2021/22 to .533.
COVID-19 BIDEN+339 (December 25)*#
Average number of cases per day Dec. 19-25, 201,330.
Average number of deaths 1,345. Three-four week interval between + and death.
#Updated in penultimate paragraph.
*Updated. Dr. Fauci said today that the latest (still early) studies from the British Isles are consistent with the earliest reporting from South Africa that Omicron results in less serious infection even as it is much more contagious than Delta and other iterations. The graphs above add weight to both assessments. Even anticipating the death interval as this immense mountain of cases moves through it is impossible to see the death number increase from 4% to 69% as the case number did from two weeks ago; impossible to see the hospitalization rate rise from 9% to 69%. Fauci urged Americans not to be complacent about Omicron since we still have a low relative vaccination rate. "Death is different" is the mantra in criminal capital litigation and in coronavirus infection. All of the data are aligning to make Omicron a less deadly wave and that is the best news.However. But. COVID-19 has always been a Janus-faced coin that is twinned with the economy. This data is in no way "good". An average of 201,330 cases/day over seven days is the highest number since the first week of the Biden administration. Over 1.4M newly-infected people in the last week. That causes a horrible chain reaction in all facets of the broadest meaning of "the economy." We see this most prominently in sports. Players are employees, when they test positive, per their CBA's, they have to sit out. The performance of the team suffers, the games become less "meaningful." Translated into broader market terminology, sports ticket buyers are consumers who are paying the same price for a lesser product. What is that? Inflation. Workers who are sick or even asym but + have to leave the work force temporarily to avoid spreading the virus to other employees. That is a brown increase in unwmployment. That lessens productivity. The result there is inflation too, less profitable businesses, lesser paychecks for workeea. The supply chains in various industries—timber, microchips, used cars—are disrupted again. Shortages develop because the workees are not workinf, prices continue "artificially" (artificial is the new normal) high; in the worst case products are simply unavailable at any price immediately (try buying a house). Inflation again; lower business profits again.
There are still shortages of workers. 815,000 Americans in a little under two years have been removed from the workforce permanently: they died. Over 52M Americans, I assume on good evidence the majority of working age, have been infected. Testing has lagged so poorly in the U.S. because of the dereliction of both the Trump and Biden administrations that almost every single one of those 52M "cases" means 52M Americans tested positive only when they got sick. Virtually all missed time from work; all had their productivity suffer to some degree, contributing to a decline in the productivity of the businesses they worked for, leading to worker shortages and lower take-home pay.
For the workers personally the Trump and Biden stimulus checks and unemployment benefit extensions eased the personal financial toll without doubt. But some workers, like me, sorta voluntarily sorta not, left the workforce entirely and at best are living on reduced, fixed incomes. The most vulnerable to economic jolts, the hourly employees, have seen missed paychecks or paycheck reductions. For them and for others on salary in their prime working years and with families the toll of sickness has been calamitous.
President Trump did all he could to ease the financial plight on families and get the economy moving again. Typical of a Republican he ignored the sickness and death, modeled non-compliance with masking, “understood” vaccine resistance, traded workplace normalcy for health and got neither, as was destined to happen.
President Biden took advantage of President Trump's superb-ish vaccines when they became available and saw clearly the inseparable interrelation between virus and economy. Biden had coronavirus beat and the economy was roaring back! He was America's greatest president over his first 100 days.
How this man, who never loses track of the virus' death toll, keeping in his pocket an up-to-date number of fatalities, how he of all presidents could let the scientific community go dark at the very dawn of the Delta variant; how he did not increase America's testing capacity in those early, rosy days; how he did not anticipate new mutations and track the virus as closely as an obsessed stalker, knowing that the virus is faster, quicker--simply better--than we are, knowing that vaccine efficacy was waning; how he could not order new vaccines to prevent infection, the "ish" suffix to superb above # "A growing body of preliminary research suggests...only the Pfizer and Moderna shots, when reinforced by a booster, appear to have initial success at stopping infections...The Pfizer and Moderna shots use the new mRNA technology, which has consistently offered the best protection against infection with every variant" ; and knowing that the economy and the virus are Siamese twins, that when one is healthy the other will be, but when one is sick, the other will be too--all of these are questions to which there can be no satisfactory answers given by Joe Biden on Judgment Day to history and to historians.
The indispensable ally of the cornavirus is time. Two presidents have let it run amok and continue to mutate. Omicron is flawed; the coronavirus fucked up in rolling out a new model that increased transmissibility but decreased lethality. It won't make that mistake again. We are, as we always have been, running so far behind the virus that we are choking on its fumes. The next variant, whatever the next fucking letter in the Greek alphabet is, Pi, will correct this design flaw in Omicron and graft speed of transmission onto vaccine evasion onto lethality. Pi, or whatever they call it, will be the Doomsday Variant. And, as always, we are unprepared.
The population of the United States is 4.25% of world population. In the 7-day daily average ending Dec. 26 it had 29% of new COVID-19 cases and 20.8% of average daily deaths.
Over the whole course of the virus the U.S. has had 52,244,696 cases and 814,970 deaths, 18.7% and 15.1% respectively of world totals.
Sunday, December 26, 2021
Oh my
A PSU-Iowa game broke out at Etihad Stadium in Manchester this day.
Manchester City put six past Lester, who managed only a field goal in a 6-3 rout. The "Foxes" could not contain us. In the 5th' boom! KDB. Then in the 14th the first of two PK fouls, Riyad Mahrez taking this one and smashing it home. Ilkay Gundogan made it 3-0 in the 21st'. 3-0 after 21 mins!. Then the second Lester PK in the 25th', Raheem Sterling making it four nil. Four-nil after 25' and at the break. But then...Lester came back breathtakingly. 4-1 in the 55th', 4-2 in the 59th; and 4-3 in the 65th! Game on! Four mins later Aymeric Laporte made it 5-3 to City and Sterling got his second in the 89th to close out the scoring. Rip-roarer of a match!
"...the Poles reacted with unbelievable stupidity."*
What is with the Poles? "Dumb Polack" was an epithet we used for them growing up in Barnesboro, mainly I concluded, because the way they pronounced certain words ("turd" for "third") in their accented English made them sound dumb, or at least uneducated.
But here is Shirer. This is two weeks before the Nazis invaded Poland. The Poles hated communist Russia; couldn't get past that even with national existence at stake. Played footsie with Uncle Alf. Presently they were going to get the whole Wehrmacht boot but still adamantly rejected the services of the Red Army. So the Soviets decided to make their deal with the devil. Less than two years later Hitler launched Operation Barbarossa. So Poland would be invaded again. Poland is the only country to have been overrun with extreme unction by both sides during World War II. Quite a testament to Polish judgment and intelligence.
*The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich (536).
Malaise Days in L.A.
The "Lakers" lost their fifth loss game in a row last night. In La-La. L-L-L-L-L. Goodness gracious.
The Association famously consists of games of runs. That certainly applies to last night’s game. BKLYN led by 15 after One; Lakers woke and outscored them by 11 in the 2nd. Four point La-La deficit at the intermission. "Nets" outscored them by 16 in the third to take a 20-point lead into the 4th frame. "Lakers", embarrassed presumably, getting booed maybe, responded with a 19-5run to get it to a no prob 6-point deficit with 7:08 to play. Got it down to -4 with 3:56 left; to two at 1:55; tied it at 115 with :45 left. Anybody's game, anybody's, but Big Mo was with L.A. And then poof! Big Mo left Crypto.com Arena, formerly the revered Staples Center. BKLYN finished on a 7-0 run to win 122-115.
The Association season is a season of runs, too. You're slow getting into gear or you immediately go to fifth and then overheat and fall to fourth or third gear. In L.A. this year however this current is the longest streak they've had. They have constantly slipped gears with injury, COVID and I don't know. They lost their first two, won their next two, lost one, won three; lost two, won two; lost one, won one; lost three, won one; lost one, won one; lost one, won two; lost one, won one, lost won; won three, and have now lost five straight. The season is getting near the half-way mark. L.A. could go conceivably 64-18--provided they go on a 48-game win streak! I'll bet you a real 'Murican NICKEL they won't do that.
What exactly is the problem? "A.D.'s out, dude." Nah, nah, nah, don't give me that surfer, pot-head "explanation.". You have LeBron, you have Russ, you have Carmelo. You're 16-18 because A.D. is hurt? Nah man, nah-uh. I know LeBron James as much as anybody who has never met the man can know him. He's frustrated. Pissed. There is no explanation under the SoCal sun for this horseshit. Frank Vogel is a good coach but this team is not in a good place psychically. Thirty-four games and a losing record takes a big toll on the psyche and on the emotions of a team with this gargantuan talent. Nobody is this organization are complaisant that "we can work this out." They're a .500 team after 34 games. Something, something has got to change out there to end the malaise days.
Friday, December 24, 2021
8:09 a.m.-8:53 a.m.
Virtually every one of us dies near-anonymously, our funerals attended by few, our passing noticed by just as many. Even our existence is quickly forgotten, if it is remembered at all. As we get older some of us realize the obscurity we have lived our lives in and the anonymity that awaits us.
Nearly all of us though were once the most cherished being that ever existed to another. But few of us are told of this in the autumn of life. And yet it was that at sixty-six years of age, for forty-four minutes, I was given this greatest gift—being told that once I was the chosen, that I am still thought of, even dreamt of, and still beloved--by the most important person from the spring of my life. Christmas came early.
“I know I told you how much you meant to me, but I thought to tell you again on the phone because I don’t think I could do it in person, I’d break down. …
“When I first looked at you in the crib, I was not prepared. I loved you so much. I also felt protective of you. I felt like I was your dad. …I wanted to be around you all the time.
“I don’t want to burden you with all this. …
“One time when you were in the crib you and I looked at each other. Our eyes locked. And after a little while you made a noise. You were trying to communicate. It was intense!
“I have that crib in my room. I touch it every day.”
Thursday, December 23, 2021
@kiIIashaw
duncan robinson is not that guy anymore i fear
10:03 PM · Dec 23, 2021·Twitter for iPhone
No, and this isn't a less-than- half-season slump. When you look at Duncan's career stats his shooting percentage overall and from range has dropped since the year he was "that guy."
2019/20 "that guy": .470 overall .654 two-point .446 three-point.
2020/21: .439 .625 .408.
2021/22 (32 games): .383 .548 .346.
Not including tonight his overall has dropped nine percentage points, his two has dropped eleven points, and his three exactly ten.
Ariel Attias
@Arielattias2
It's amazing how Duncan Robinson actively does not even try to do all of the *other* things he's able to get to when the shot is not falling.
8:54 PM · Dec 23, 2021·Twitter for Android
@Arielattias2
It's amazing how Duncan Robinson actively does not even try to do all of the *other* things he's able to get to when the shot is not falling.
8:54 PM · Dec 23, 2021·Twitter for Android
Well, he does rebound the ball pretty well from his position. I've noticed that a lot when he can't shoot, like tonight. He had 4 rebounds and 2 assists tonight in 21'. Strus had 6 reb's, 1 assist, 1 steal and 2 turnovers in nearly double the minutes. Still, the point Ariel is making is valid: Duncan can't play defense and your stat line is going to be empty when when you're the shooting guard and you're 0/6 (0/5). It doesn't matter how many rebounds a fucking shooting guard has.
Xavier Sanchez
@Xavier_Sanchez4
🚨MAX STRUS GAME-WINNER🚨
Strus and the Miami Heat defeat the Detroit Pistons 115-112. He played a team-high 41 minutes and scored 26 points (10-18 FG, 5-11 3PT) and had 6 rebounds (1 offensive), an assist, and a steal in second NBA start. #HEATCulture
10:05 PM · Dec 23, 2021·Twitter for iPhone
@Xavier_Sanchez4
🚨MAX STRUS GAME-WINNER🚨
Strus and the Miami Heat defeat the Detroit Pistons 115-112. He played a team-high 41 minutes and scored 26 points (10-18 FG, 5-11 3PT) and had 6 rebounds (1 offensive), an assist, and a steal in second NBA start. #HEATCulture
10:05 PM · Dec 23, 2021·Twitter for iPhone
Tim Reynolds
@ByTimReynolds
The Miami Heat just improved to 20-13 on a night where they lost their second starting center; got more technicals than field goals from the law firm of Adebayo, Butler and Robinson; and ended the game with a closing lineup that included Strus, Haslem and Vincent. Normal stuff.
10:02 PM · Dec 23, 2021·Twitter Web App
Look at these stat lines.
D. Robinson 21', 0/6 (0/5), 3/3 FT's, 3 points.
M. Strus 41', 10/18 (5/11), 1/1 FT's, 26 points.
T. Herro 34', 11/21 (3/5), 4/5 FT's, 29 points.
In sum:
Studio Mogura土竜 BUY MY NOVEL FULL MOON NIGHTS
@studiomogura
And where was that $90 million? Sitting on the bench. I don’t want hear about slumps. Strus just snatched Robinson’s spot. #HEATCulture
10:03 PM · Dec 23, 2021·Twitter for iPhone
FT "Heat" 115 Det. 112.
Heir Apparent or Afterthought? The Frustrations of Kamala Harris.-NYT
The vice president’s allies are increasingly concerned that President Biden relied on her to win but does not need her to govern.
This article is a lot of on the one hand, on the other hand so I am not quoting from it. However, I almost posted the other day, "Someone put out an APB for the vice president. Does Biden even know he has a vice president?" I never see her. Nor hear from her. He clearly does not rely on her to govern. Pity because he "needs" someone to help him govern.
United Airlines cancels more than 100 Christmas Eve flights because of Omicron-NYT
United Airlines canceled at least 131 flights scheduled to leave dozens of airports on Friday — along with another 28 that were supposed to take off on Saturday, according to Flight Aware. Other airlines, including Delta, JetBlue and Allegiant, did the same, adding up to 1,404 cancellations as of Thursday evening, the website said.
...
Dozens of customers took to social media to air their grievances about the last-minute cancellations, including John Ferris who tweeted: “You’ve got be kidding me. And there are apparently no available flights for days. Ba humbug.”
...
Dozens of customers took to social media to air their grievances about the last-minute cancellations, including John Ferris who tweeted: “You’ve got be kidding me. And there are apparently no available flights for days. Ba humbug.”
My daughter arrived in Miami from Providence at 2:30 a.m. today. She is scheduled to go back Dec. 27.
Booster protection wanes against symptomatic Omicron infections, British data suggests.-NYT
New data from Britain suggests that booster protection against symptomatic Covid caused by the Omicron variant wanes within 10 weeks.
So that's three news checks in 13 hours. Enjoy the rest of your even-ing.
First time today I check the news
Oh, I guess not. Okay, first time since fucking 8:15 a.m.
Omicron Drives U.S.
Virus Cases Past Delta’s
Peak
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