Friday, April 28, 2017

                                                                 Trump...TRUMP...

HEY DICKHEAD!

What is Macedonia?

"It's PRESIDENT Dickhead by the way and YOU DON'T HAVE TO SHOUT! I know my ancient Grecian history by the way and Macedonia was a city state a long time ago, did pretty well, by the way, made a lot of money, 'course taxes were lower back then, NO I WILL NOT RELEASE MY TAXES, gorgeous women, GORGEOUS, won a Miss Ancient Universe pageant, you should have seen her, aligned with Sparta to defeat Athens in the first Olympic Games."


Swear?


Thank you.


Russia blames the

U.S. after protesters 

storm Macedonia’s 

parliament (WaPo)

Thursday, April 27, 2017

Dear God

City and United drew 0-0 today in the city.

Can we just end this fucking season already? This is the dreariest, most boring Manchester City team since before the Revolution. There was a year, "Psycho" Pearce was the manager and we had...what was his name, something like Georgio Chamaras or something as a "promising" player, and we had Joey Barton in florid psychosis, when we scored like 20 goals the whole fucking year. Almost got relegated. That was the most hopeless year since I've been true blue. This season is second-worst. It is shocking that this has come under the World's Greatest Manager. Pep Guardiola changed the way this team plays, tiki-taka, and we've tiki'd when we should have taki'd evidently. I don't know! I don't know what the problem has been, are we passing too much?, taki-taka puts a premium on passing, how many fucking shots on net have we had this year?, I don't know what it is but there is no explosion in this team, we are not scoring goals, and when your defense is atrocious and you've got "Claudio" "Bravo" in goal, basically, when you don't score goals, can't defend, and your goalkeeper has his head up his ass, you're not going to be successful in soccer. Sorry!

Pep brought Yaya (By the way, Yaya, happy birthday) out of exile, got Vinny back for at least a match, HAS KUN AGUERO!, David Silva, Raheem Sterling, Kevin DrBruyne, etc & etc...that team should NOT be BORING! THAT team should not be hanging on by its fingertips to fourth fucking place! That team has REGRESSED. Under PEP GUARDIOLA!  Dear God.

End of World

Google aggregates its news stories in categories, U.S., World, Health, Trump Blows, Science, Sports, etc. Ten stories per category. All ten in Sports are on the NFL draft. 
M Trubitsky (I only know who he is from the Pitt game, the swine) was selected second overall by the Chicago "Who Dats" in the National Concussion League draft. Good ballplayer, M.

COME HOME CARL!


Monumental Failure


De Facto Fool is trying to get something, anything, to show for his first 100 days. R&R ObamaCare, the Wall, China, North Korea, NAFTA, the guy has got a streak of yellow in him that becomes his orange hair. The official shoe wear of the Trump White House is the flip-flop. He's decided to take on inanimate objects for his scattershot practice and is taking aim at national monuments to cement his "legacy" by Saturday. So, he has gone on the attack, launching an out-of-nowhere verbal barage against parks, wetlands, land, waterways, the underground, accusing these mute offenders of depriving his real estate and business friends of their God-given right to pursue happiness by "developing" them. That's what he's doing. That and threatening to nuke Canada.

Derby Day!

It is Derby Day in England's Second City. God's Team of Righteous City-Dwelling Angels in Sky Blue, fourth in the table and first in our hearts host the fifth-place Suburban "Buccaneers," one tenuous pint behind. Pep vs Mou. Six left to play including this one. Both clubs with two games in hand and two and three points respectively behind the turd-placed "Cannibals," so...this one is not even decisive for the Young Boys-Barca future. Pretty non-consequential, actually, now that I think about it.

Wednesday, April 26, 2017

"Trump says no plan to pull out of NAFTA ‘at this time’"-WaPo

Why, Trump? NAFTA was the worst thing next to ObamaCare in the whole history of the earth during your theft of the election. Find out your stupid, again? You've had a lot of those "OMG (smack self on forehead) I'm a moron!" moments. "Who knew?"

"United investigating giant rabbit's death after trans-Atlantic flight"

Business! Business, I am awed...And odd.

"North Korea faces tighter sanctions under Trump strategy"-BBC

Trump team softens war talk, vows other pressure on NKorea

After weeks of unusually blunt military threats, the joint statement by the agency chiefs said Trump's approach "aims to pressure North Korea into dismantling its nuclear, ballistic missile and proliferation programs by tightening economic sanctions and pursuing diplomatic measures with our allies and regional partners." It made no specific mention of military options, though it said the U.S. would defend itself and friends.
-ABC






That's your new strategy. I see. Good strategy, Trump, don't get me wrong, I approve, Dickhead! Not even a Wall, huh. Rooskis built one! You proposed one before you realized you were a stupid idiot. Geez, a wall along the DMZ, that'd at least slow down the North's troops...China built a wall...


So what was that all about, Trump? All sound and fury signifying...nothing? Just re-inventing the wheel?


Oh! Trump, I bet Melanoma is cucking you.
"Hard work guarantees you nothing, but without it you don't have a chance."

That's a Riley-ism, too.

"The wisdom is reaching."

That's that song...the old Subaru Ski World theme song, don't remember it's name...that Marty Balin re-recorded...written by Joe---, tune by -----, Fuck! Interviewed that guy, too (by email.).

Those things are in conflict a little, however, no? Why work, even if it pays off, if  "it always ends"? We really are struggling naked against a huge bolder and in the end it "always" rolls back over us and crushes us to death. Why struggle? (Or at least put some clothes?)...I'm thinking...I'm writing as I'm thinking, which is contraindicated both ways, in hope that I will stumble upon the shining path.

In my work as a struggler against the bolder of the Law I have become acquainted with an inmate-run project called Life Path. It was started by an inmate who is serving a Life sentence and many other of Life Path's participants are doing life. The end purpose of Life Path is to improve the community, whatever community you are in, that is the key part. Including the prison community. So Life Path participants obey all rules and laws of their community, volunteer in the kitchen, around the yard, seek donations for TV's and videos for visiting family, polish the brass, etc. IN THE PRISON.

Why? Hope is one reason. Hope that their good deeds inside will lead to mitigation of their sentence for, "without it you don't have a chance." But also to be "successful"--in whatever community you are in. You want to be thrown in the hole? Keep on the path you're goin', brother. Here's another path that leads away from discipline in solitary confinement. And, "improving the community" is a good thing since you are part of that community. Less chance of getting shanked if everybody obeys the rules and laws. And...You feel good about yourself. You discover you have talents, that you're not destined to be a loser forever. You're trying, you're putting in l'effort. You discover that Success is in the reaching. Hard work has its own rewards.
“You never think it’s gonna end. Then it always ends.”
           
Ain't it the truth, ain't it the truth. The good and the bad. The pain and the joy. Life itself. It always ends. That is Pat Riley. Riley really does have a philosophic touch in his pithy aphorisms. I read something similar that Richard Nixon wrote, I think in his book Six Crises. It was something like, "No defeat is total. No victory ever complete." Very true, too.

Tuesday, April 25, 2017

Trump, Suicide is Painless

Trump:

Ivanka Trump Is Jeered in Berlin After Defending Her Father

She didn't vote for you, Trump.

Trump:


You don't even know how to act. Do you even know where you are? Maybe in your dotage your mind wandered back to Miss Universe and you thought you heard "There she is, Miss America." OR, maybe you forgot what country and were expecting the Russian national anthem.

Do you even know where "your" "wife," the "First" "Lady," is?


Melania Trump Refuses To Move Into White House? No Signs She’ll Leave Trump Tower


She didn't vote for you either, Trump.
'Course, she couldn't as an illegal alien.

She doesn't want to be with you, Trump. She doesn't love you anymore. She doesn't want to fuck your short, stumpy, impotent dick anymore. She's cucking you, Trump. She's fucking Schwarzenegger. She hates you like everybody else.


You cornhole Bannon now. Sad!

Trump, What Have You Gotten Right?

Judge blocks Trump order on sanctuary city funding

Trump backs down on border wall funding

House oversight committee: Flynn might have broken the law


Those are just today's bird pumps, Trump.

You are a walking, talking fuck-up.

You are a chattering beast.

You are a head of swine.

You are incompetent.

You are impotent

You are a fool.

You are stupid.

You are the cause of stupidity in others.

You have the brain of a bird that can only fly backwards.

You are a liar.

You are a phony.

You put the ugly in American.

You are an idiot in search of a village.

You are the Banana in the Republic.

You are a danger to yourself and others.

You are the shit in the creek.

You are an abortion.

Commit suicide, Trump. Just do it.

Monday, April 24, 2017

There are no hockey fans like Edmonton "Oilers" hockey fans. Just watch, or, more to the point, listen to this, it's only 1:27 long: EdmontonSanJoseGame42006

Bees and Gees, this here undersigned has seen a lotta insane sports crowds in his 61 years. Until hearing that the most electric crowd I had ever been a part of was in 1984, a Monday Night Football game between the Chicago "Bears" and Miami "Dolphins." Not only did I not have my voice the next day but my palms were bruised from clapping. I had been in Miami all of two years, had the slimmest connection to the "Dolphins" but got that caught up in the game. That was the most intense, hard-hitting tackle football game I have ever witnessed. But for one peak frisson I have never heard a crowd react as insanely and as loudly (reportedly 123 decibels) as that "Oilers" crowd did in aught-six.

Brief background to the next video. San Jose fans thought they heard some boos in Edmonton's Rexall Place when the American anthem was played during that series. From what I have read, the "boos" did not occur, they were a distortion caused by TV mics. Nonetheless, the Americans in San Jose took offense and really DID boo "O Canada" as retaliation. The next game, back in Edmonton, no semblance of booing occurred during the playing of the "Star Spangled Banner." But when it came to the playing of "O Canada" the entire crowd joined in lustily singing. It so awed the "Oilers" singer that he stopped and turned his mic to the crowd to finish the anthem. That was a moment.

And so we fast forward eleven years and Edmonton is back in the playoffs for the first time in the new Rogers Place against...San Jose and this happens. Goose bumps, baby! EdmontonSanJoseOCanada2017
Trump, why is the Carl Vinson there now? Things have been real quiet! Now, you poke a stick through the bars of his cell and agitate the loon again. Makes no sense, Trump...By the way, Trump, fuck you.

"An Aurora Called 'Steve'? Strange Sky Phenomenon Investigated"-Space

Science?! Strong play, Science, strong. You can call me Al.

"Men removing condoms during sex in disturbing online trend 'stealthing' "-Fox News

Not bad, Health. Incomprehensibility is key to a funny headline and I have no fucking idea what that means, but the "credit" goes to the incomprehensible Foxes, not you Health. SOWY!
Arsenal, you will be pleased to hand over Alexis Sanchez before the start of next season. 

Sunday, April 23, 2017

Another thing: We are a root-cause determining society. "Can't cure the symptoms unless you cure the cause!" Utter bullshit.

When you go to a doctor, or to an auto mechanic, you can present with the most common complaint imaginable: "I've had a runny nose and aches for three days." "Had trouble starting the car today." What do they do? "We have to diagnose. Let's take a blood sample first." No. YOU HAVE A COLD MOTHER-FUCKER! Your blood work has nothing to do with it! Make them treat your symptoms. They make a routine of taking your blood because getting to the "root cause" is in their blood. They're gonna find something! Guaranteed. I went to the doctor once feeling fatigued, had felt unusually fatigued for an unusual amount of time. So, went to the doctor. "Let's do your blood work." My PSA came back elevated--had nothing to do with my fatigue symptoms--"You'll want to get your prostate checked." Course, turned out I had prostate cancer, WHICH HAD NOTHING TO DO WITH FEELING FATIGUED. NEVER did anything for my fatigue.

I took the rust bucket into the shop last week. "It's hesitating or jumping on the highway, back-firing or farting or something." "We have to diagnose. We don't know what's wrong with your car."
Really? I thought. You HAVE NO IDEA from those symptoms? Never heard of such a thing before? You want to come out and look at it? Maybe take it for a diagnostic test drive. Is the "Needs Maintenance" light being on for a month of any relevance to your diagnosis? No? Alright, then. "We'll put your car through our diagnostic computer, that will cost $129. Then we'll fix it. You'll have to leave the car with us for at least a day. There's an Enterprise Car Rental right around the corner." "Oh, I see" (to self). I have to go the hospital for a day for a fucking cold? No. I left. Took the rust bucket to Jiffy Lube.

FDR had so many fucking physical problems he was a medical case study. Had to go to the White House doctor every year for a check up, though. "Help him manage the symptoms" was that doc's mantra. 

The Hypocritic Oath

"I can tell you, if you're listening out there, if you have a back problem, stay away from surgery. I can say that from the bottom of my heart. Rehab, rehab, rehab. Don't let anybody get in there."
 -Steve Kerr, head coach Golden State Warriors, who has missed two games with complications from back surgery and may miss the rest of the post-season.

I wish to add more sweeping advice. DO NOT EVER HAVE SURGERY, ANYWHERE until you have spoken to specialists in other fields. You go to a surgeon for a problem, (s)he is going to recommend surgery. "If you can't cut, you can't cure" is the surgeon's mantra. You go to a specialist in another field, like rehabilitation, for the same problem, you'll get a non-surgical "solution." They recommend what they know and they think what they know is best. Get the advice of professionals in widely different fields and then choose. "If you cut, you can't cure" is as likely to be true.
"Dragons is so stupid."
"When I say whoa, I mean WHOA!"
Must have been a blast working at Looney Tunes back then. Writers be cracking each other up all day, I bet; don't know, but I'll bet.
Daffy Duck and Porky Pig never did much for me and the Roadrunner, I positively did not like. Loved Foghorn Leghorn, too.
"Whoa camel, whoa camel, WHOA camel! Ah come on whoa."

To me, the Yosemite Sam character is the funniest creation of the Looney Tunes studio and, next to the Oscar winning rabbit himself--for whom he is the perfect foil--their most enduring creation.

Saturday, April 22, 2017

Oh man, Chelsea pummeled "Spurs" 4-2 at the Bridge. "Spurs" was the only club with any hope of catching them. Oh, well, worthy champions, Swine Chelsea, they have been excellent all season. Worthy champions.

Oh my goodness, Zlatan Ibrahimovic fucked up his knee bad in ManU's 2-1 win over Anderlecht on Thursday in the Europa League. Marcos Rios too, but I don't know who that is. Know who Ibra is. Ibra's the only reason the "Bucs" had a shot at winning that thing (auto qualification for Champs if they do). "Significant" knee ligament injuries to both. Not lookin' good for the "Bucs." Ibrahimovic has had a phenomenal year. He's an older guy, too. Very too bad. Sorry for Ibrahimovic. And United too. Bad break.

Didn't miss anything else "significant" today.
So what's news, anything? I hope not cuz I haven't been paying attention. Haven't looked in hours. Know what I've been doing?
                                                                   Looney Tunes! Never been cartoons as good as Looney Tunes in the 1950's. I've been watching them for sixty years. This one is a sequel to one called "Feed the Kitty". Love "Feed the Kitty." Same kitten in this one, which I have forgotten the name of already,.."Kitty Framed" or "Cat Framed," something like that, same Dog-Protector, the man of the house instead of the housewife in 'Feed the Kitty" and the villain, the big cat of the house. 'Toon opens with the adorable little kitty asleep on it's throw pillow.

Along comes the jealous big cat and...

That is so rude.
That's approximately what we used to do to Rusty on a cold day. Damn Rusty'd always be laying in front of the heat vent on the floor. GETOUTTATHERE!


This
Will
Not
Stand.
As the big cat goes flying from the kick, he, Bartholomew?, I think that was the dog's name, puts Kitty back in her bed...
And then reaches to grab the big cat by the throat as he falls back to earth.
Oh, no, we're not done! He's not getting off with just a kick.
Right in the kisser!
The master of the house hears the ruckus. Ah jeez. Bartholomew hears him come and takes his eye off the cat to look up at him.

Smack! with the walking stick.

Ouch! But it's worth it to pummel the evil big cat and Bartholomew won't let him go just yet...

"Just one more? Just one more little punch?"


"Just like that. It'll help him come to."


"NOOOOO!"

"NOW, PUT HIM DOWN!"

Bartholomew is on queer street but he can't let the cat off so lightly. "What did you say? Down? You want me to put him down? I didn't hear."

"Down? 
"Then he has to go UP first, as I understand it."

"Up-a-daisy, cat."

"See master, up THEN DOWN, K?"

"See, DOWN. Am I a good dog?"

LOVE that cartoon. Never had seen it before.
"This just in":

Volleyball Over, North Koreans Go Back to Work at Nuclear Site, Analysts Say

-NYT

North Korea appears to have resumed work at its nuclear test site after a perplexing series of volleyball matches were held there, according to analysts who studied satellite images of the site, renewing concerns that a major weapons test could be imminent.

Ho-ho-ho.

Friday, April 21, 2017

The Case for a Warm War on Russia

I strongly believe that the attack yesterday on police on the Champs-Elysees in Paris, is Russian-inspired as a pre-election surprise to boost Putin's candidate, Marine Le Pen. I thought the same about the Christmas attacks in Germany. And, of course, it is now generally accepted that Russia interfered in the U.S. election to harm Hillary Clinton and to aid Donald von Clownstick. It is Russia's goal to destabilize the Western democracies and how better to do that than to make people question the legitimacy of the democratic electoral process? Trump was reading from a script written in Moscow when he began claiming repeatedly during the campaign that "the election is rigged." It is also an old Soviet statecraft technique to falsely accuse, preemptively is best, your enemy of the very conduct in which you are engaged. So: the election was rigged--but by the Russians working with and for Trump. Preemptively accusing Clinton of rigging the election is psychological prophylactic. When, as there was, evidence that Trump was rigging the election, Trump beat Clinton to it. He who makes the accusation first puts his enemy at a psychological disadvantage, she now appears desperate, defensive, reactive-You're just saying that now because I accused you of it first.

If Russia can get its "useful fool" elected, as with Trump, all the better, but Russia wins simply when there are enough useful fools who believe the false accusation against their enemy. In Trump supporters, Russia hit the world motherlode of fools. Do you remember? There were pledges by Trump supporters to assassinate Hillary Clinton or "lock her up!" before her inauguration had she won. They were going to prevent it. If she had lived to be inaugurated Republicans in Congress were immediately going to begin and never let up on impeachment. Thus, even if Hillary Clinton had won, Russia would have won more. A Clinton presidency would have been DOA, figuratively and perhaps literally.

Russia has made a detailed analysis of where each of the Western democracies is most vulnerable to fomenting a legitimation crisis. In France, it clearly is the incompetence of the gendarme. In Germany, a terrorist truck attack at a Christmas market was a bold gambit by Russia to undermine the uber stability of German politics. Angela Merkel is the unquestioned leader of European stability, and hence a stalwart foe of the Russian covert mission of de-legitimization. The tool is fashioned to local conditions. With France, it was an easy call: recruit an Islamist to attack the the symbolic heart of the French Republic. In Germany, show that it could be done at all and you strike at the head, Merkel. Batter, you don't have to assassinate, the head, addle the faculties, create doubt among supporters, and you win a battle of delegitimization and live to fight more. Live on to fight more battles and the battles combine to form war.

It is convenient to Russia's strategy of delegitimization when its agents are killed. Here they have an advantage with recruiting Islamic agents. They will gladly die in a cause in which they are pawns of the Kremlin. Dead men tell no tales.

The Russians believe, and they convinced the Obama's to believe, that responses in kind to Russian cyber attacks were too dangerous. Cyber attacks of the kind Russia utilized in the American election exposed ultra-wired America to war game retaliation scenarios: hacking into flood control computers, everything in America is computer-controlled, could produce several Johnstown Floods each of greater devastation than the original and, according to a White Paper, America is five to ten years away from protecting its cyber infrastructure. Russia is better than we are, better than the U.S., because the U.S. is defenseless.

France is comparative child's play given the most elemental inability to protect against mere street attacks. Nothing sophisticated needed in France. Le Pen could win: Just ask Donald Trump.

Brexit seems to me far less Russian influenced. True, Nigel Lafarge, a Trump campaign surrogate in Mississippi, said he spoke for his British racists in UKIP when he said he and they did not see Russia as the threat. It was Europe that was the threat to their racist conception of Britishness: they were white, Putin and the Russians were white. That was their one test. Still, I did not see then, I do not see now, I have never seen, significant Russian effort in Britain over Brexit. Putin's 2015 nationalism speech was consistent with the Brexit cause, provided psychological comfort, but I would not go so far as to say it was inspiration. Brexit was an English thing and while there may always be an England there may not always be a Great Britain. Brexit though, with apparently minimal Russian aid, was a boon to Russian aims to destabilize Europe. Will certainly make the EU less attractive to the likes of Ukraine! Divide and, if not conquer, at least weaken, and keep at that on a wide front and you may conquer.

There has been no conceivably commensurate American or Western response to Russian cyber destabilization. Yet, Russia suddenly finds the bromance it had with China during the Obama years apparently cooling. That was the team that frustrated America repeatedly at the UN. Now however, China, not today of course, nothing fucking is happening with China today, but China has taken a clear step or two toward America. Which means a step or two away from Russia.

Russia has its own vulnerabilities. It has a legitimation crisis far more serious than the stable Western democracies. The attack on America's electoral legitimacy in 2016 was birthed in Hillary Clinton's critique of Putin's own rigged election in 2012. It is vulnerable to civil and political unrest. See Pussy Riot. Russia has shown herself, like France, not quite in control of herself. Putin blushed with embarrassment that Alexei Navalny was able to catch Russian police so flat-footed in the recent nationwide protests.

State security forces everywhere, in America too, struggle to prevent lone wolf attacks but the Russian and French police struggle more than do the American and British. The recent St. Petersburg metro bombing. There are zillions of Muslims on Russia's borders and they have far more reason and ability to terror attack right at the gates of the Kremlin than on the Champs-Elysees. Imagine a series of 9/11-style coordinated attacks throughout Russia. Look at the chaos Alexei Navalny caused with protests via social media. In Merkel's stock phrase, "We can do that.": And imagine the American manipulated Muslim terrorists blowing themselves up in the process. Dead men tell no tales.

40,000,000 €=$42,821,600

:o
Serious?
UEFA just gave us back $42 mil? FUCK.
Arsenal, if you have any good players left, I'd put them sumbitches in a chastity belt or something. You know what Sheikh Mansour likes to do with his money! LOVE Sheikh Mansour. Sheikh Mansour, muah.
Wow, Manchester City just got refunded 40 million € by UEFA.

How much is that in "real" money? Not in frigging Euros or Sombreros. Lira. 40,000,000 lira would be worth, what $1.16? DOLLARS, AMERICAN DOLLARS, no Canadian Looney Dollars either! Pisses me off. "Euros." Isn't the Euro some car. 40,000,000 cars even if they're Euros would be worth something. IT'S A FRIGGING CAR! Forty million cars would be worth something. Une momento por favor...
In China news some 70,000,000 year old dinosaur eggs have been found in China.

Is my news being censored or something? This whole captivating cluster of issues has just disappeared. What's the latest on Chinese bombers maintenance? I want regular maintanence updates. Where's Trump's armada? Where is the Carl Vinson? Pisses me off.
Not even any volleyball updates from 38north. I don't like this day.
There is NOT ONE Deepark article in the news today. 

Thursday, April 20, 2017

I have a vision. A dream. I see in my dream a fat, fade head:

I see the fat, fade head being batted over a net, strung along the 38th parallel. Over and over, back and forth, back and forth, in a friendly game between the People's Republic of China and the United States of America. Spike! Heh-heh-heh-heh. Night, night, hermites. Sweet dreams.
The Beeb, too! What is this world coming to.

North Korea tension: Volleyball spotted in nuclear test site

I cannot believe that the Former Quasi's have stooped so low as to steal a laugh from a poor, idiot blogger:

Activity Spotted at North Korea Nuclear Test Site: Volleyball

    Something Might Be Happening

    Teacher Shen's essay is still up.

    Then there was this from an April 17 op-ed in the Formerly Quasi Official New York Times:

    Most observers forget that North Korea’s nuclear arsenal is aimed at China as well as the United States and its allies.

    :o Really? Aimed at China? Some observers of the idiot blogger persuasion never knew. China does not like to be encircled, now!

    Around the same time was the change in Chinese tone noted by idiots and 38northers both.

    Then this very early today (normal people time):

    (CNN)China may be getting fed up with continued nuclear bluster from long-time ally North Korea and tilting toward the United States.
    ...
    [Chinese] spokesman Lu Kang praised recent US statements on the North Korean issue.

    "American officials did make some positive and constructive remarks... such as using whatever peaceful means possible to resolve the (Korean) Peninsula nuclear issue. This represents a general direction that we believe is correct and should be adhered to," Lu said.


    LUUUUU!

    NOW, just within the last hour or so, THIS:

    US official: With eye on North Korea, China puts bombers on 'high alert'


    (CNN)Chinese air force land-attack, cruise-missile-capable bombers were put "on high alert" on Wednesday as the US sees evidence that the Chinese military is preparing to respond to a potential situation in North Korea, a US defense official tells CNN.

    The official said the US has also seen an extraordinary number of Chinese military aircraft being brought up to full readiness through intensified maintenance.

    These recent steps by the Chinese are assessed as part of an effort to "reduce the time to reacte to a North Korea contingency," the official said

    But then, there is this:

    "Nobody thinks the Chinese are going to press North Korea militarily or bring the regime to its knees, but the strategy looks to China to find a political solution more than anything else," one senior administration official said.

    Well, what the fuck are they doing if not "pressing North Korea militarily"?! They're damn well pressing SOMEONE militarily and it doesn't seem in context it would be the U.S. and South Korea.

    The gestalt key shift here is the DPRK's nukes being aimed at China, too. Combine that gem with Chinese fear of encirclement, and good shift happens! If China, rather than the U.S., prevents another DPRK nuclear or missile test, then China will have prevented their encirclement. Instead, they will have encircled from the west, with South Korea to the south and America to the east, the DPRK, the last remaining loop in their feared Magic Kingdom East of Japan, Taiwan and a unified, Americanized Korea. That loop will be kept forever open, as will un's asshole for China's personal use and abuse, for China will then own un, they will make un their bitch and they will get to keep Kim Enterprises racist, dwarf Hermit Kingdom for their very own.

    This is an extraordinary moment.

    DPRK: "Super-mighty preemptive strike" will reduce U.S., South Korea to "ashes"

    You still gotta get one of those to not blow up on the pad, fade boy.

    Wednesday, April 19, 2017

    I Swear to Fucking God


    [1] Volleyball is a popular sport in North Korea and satellite imagery often identifies games in progress throughout the nation. Personnel playing volleyball at the Punggye-ri nuclear test facility have also been identified on a number of occasions as far back as 2006 prior to the first nuclear test and more recently in February. To date, however, there have been no instances of three concurrent volleyball games.
    3Volleyball8North

    "After listening for 10 minutes, I realized it’s not so easy."

    Personal record for Trump, listening for 10 minutes. That's how long it took China's Xi to convince America's Jeeh! that "it's not what you think," China's power over North Korea.

    This 38North is a good site for DPRK-specific news and you know how much I want to transform Public Occurrences into an "all North Korea, all the time" site. It's not so easy

    The article that the link takes you to offers informed suggestion on Chinese thought and action, and that I am always interested in, for real. The knowledgeable 38North writer confirms what this idiot blogger thought, and wrote, in the previous post: that there really has been a change in Chinese tone. Now, why? Peter 38 North offers three suggestions:

    1. If there were war, there goes the neighborhood: nuclear fallout, refugees, yada yada, and China lives in that 'hood.
         A. I'm going to make this a separate sub-suggestion because in my opinion it deserves it but respect Peter's enumeration: China is not down with a reunified Korean peninsula because it will be unified as an American peninsula and combined with Japan and Taiwan to become a platform for the U.S. to confront China. China would rather go halfsies with us even if that means they get the racist dwarf half. That sounds stupid but it is true and Peter thus concludes his first suggestion. Uncle Ben wishes to add that Chinese thinking here taps into an ancient Chinese anxiety: the fear of encirclement. The soul of China, the animating principle of their thought and behavior, is survival. Encirclement makes them fear for their survival. Yes, that is stupid, too, I just wanted to add that level of Chinese stupidity to Peter's. Next!

    2. China is more batshit now than in previous Korean crises because they really do think the DPRK and the U.S. could rumble with nukes this time. I also thought that and wrote it in the previous post. Peter suggests however that the Chinese fear is not that those crazy DPRK-niks bird pump and set off a glow in the dark peninsula but that the Americans are going to! China really believes, really most sincerely believes, that there has been a consensus in America, not just in the current illegitimate, mutant, pseudo official America, but in Official America, and for some years, that the DPRK was NOT going to be allowed to develop ICBM-tipped nukes which could make Seattle and L.A. glow in the dark and that therefore the real danger now is in a preemptive American nuclear strike regardless of whether the DPRK does another underground nuclear test or test fires another missile. You can debate that all you want, I'm not going there again, the De Facto's redebated this last Friday, General McMaster was clear on Sunday but who knows what Trump told Xi in Florida, Pence said today "the sword is at the ready," the point is, this is what the Chinese think, suggests Peter 38 North.

    3. China needs a "constructive" relationship with the U.S.

    Okay, so on that last one, I don't know. That's the shortest paragraph of Peter's suggestions. Did they not want a constructive relationship with the U.S. in the past? When would that have been? Do they REALLY want a constructive relationship now? What does that mean specifically? If Xi convinced Trump in 10 minutes, 600 seconds you know, that Chinese "power" over the DPRK "is not what you think," that "it's not easy" for China to influence the DPRK, then that sounds like a pretty damn constructive relationship Xi constructed, Trump is satisfied, and the Chinese need do no more.

    What it sounds like to me.

    "Trump's lie over the Carl Vinson"

    “Trump’s lie over the Carl Vinson,” read a headline on the website of the newspaper JoongAng Ilbo on Wednesday. “Xi Jinping and Putin must have had a good jeer over this one.”

    “Like North Korea, which is often accused of displaying fake missiles during military parades, is the United States, too, now employing ‘bluffing’ as its North Korea policy?” the article asked.

    The episode raised questions about whether major allies of the United States, like South Korea and Japan, had been informed of the carrier’s whereabouts, and whether the misinformation undercut America’s strategy to contain North Korea’s nuclear ambitions by using empty threats.
    ...
    “We’re sending an armada,” President Trump said 10 days ago. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/19/world/asia/aircraft-carrier-south-korea.html?_r=0

    There also is a change:

    North Korea tension: China 'seriously concerned' about nuclear threats

    -BBC

    There is a change in the frequency of Chinese expressions of concern, and in their tone. China is REALLY concerned. 

    "If the US is planning a military attack against us, we will react with a nuclear pre-emptive strike by our own style and method," [DPRK] Vice-Foreign Minister Han Song-ryol told the BBC on Monday.

    The BBC's Stephen McDonell in Beijing says the Chinese government appears to be becoming increasingly frustrated with North Korea, its traditional ally.

    "I have noted the recent report," Mr Lu said, referring to the BBC interview. [Translated, "We are going batshit crazy in Zhongnanhai with those fucking racist dwarfs."]

    "China expresses serious concern with recent trends about North Korea's nuclear and missile development.

    "China is unswerving in its commitment to realising the denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula, maintaining the peace and stability of the Korean peninsula, and continue to solve matters through dialogue and negotiations."

    [China, on whom the DPRK is heavily dependent on trade, suspended coal imports after the "Citrus Summit." And then there is that article by Shen Zhihua, published March 22, still up on his university's website and Shen not struggled. Maybe "yet" should be appended to both clauses of that sentence. If it is correct to view DPRK actions over the last 60 years from an anthropological perspective then the DPRK is rational...for a paranoid psychopath. There is a method to their madness. They don't really want to be blown up. They do want to attack the South, again, would love to attack the U.S., but don't want to do those things if the cost is being blown up. China is not taking the recent statements and actions by the DPRK and the U.S. as palimpsest, however. They're taking them at face value. Since the Chinese are themselves masters of misdirection, I pay particular attention when they are direct. Here, they are direct, are sincerely alarmed. Which means: 1. That nuclear war is still "on the table" for both sides and 2. That China wants to end this crisis before anybody gets blown up.]
    Do you get a "Would you like to translate this page?" pop-up in the upper right on the front page? Don't bother. Really good translation, Google. Thank you very not much. 

    Tuesday, April 18, 2017

    SHEN ZHIHUA, CHINA'S FOREMOST KOREAN HISTORIAN,URGES BREAK WITH DPRK

    “Judging by the current situation, North Korea is China’s latent enemy and South Korea could be China’s friend. We must see clearly that China and North Korea are no longer brothers in arms, and in the short term there’s no possibility of an improvement in Chinese-North Korean relations.”
    ...
    “The fundamental interests of China and North Korea are at odds. China’s fundamental interest lies in achieving a stability on its borders and developing outward. But since North Korea acquired nuclear weapons, that periphery has never been stable, so inevitably Chinese and North Korean interests are at odds.”
    ...
    “Many people have asked me, ‘Teacher Shen, why hasn’t your speech been taken down?’ At least it shows that there can be different views about the North Korea issue. It’s up to the center to set policy, but at least you can air different views in public, whereas before you couldn’t."

    Teacher Shen, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea is a tin can tied to the tail of the People's Republic of China. And through the pages of history it shall ever rattle and bang. If Zhongnanhai waits until the end when the tin can is forcibly removed China will thereby be rendered a "tailless dog."

    通知公告

    学术论文

    档案目录


    沈志华:从中朝关系史的角度看“萨德”问题


    发布者:冷战中心发布时间:2017-03-22浏览次数:223315


    【本文系沈志华教授2017年3月19日在大连外国语大学的讲座记录】


    【根据录音整理,经过本人校订】


    昨天讲了中苏关系,都是解读档案,今天主要谈谈中朝关系,也是我近年来研究的重点。最近“萨德”问题很热闹,或许我们也可以从历史的角度观察这个问题。当然一个小时的时间根本讲不完,我的这本中朝关系史的书,是从1919年一直写到1976年,整个是讲中朝关系的历史脉络和变化曲线。时间不够,但是有一些精髓的东西,就是我认识到的、归纳出来的问题,我想和当前的“萨德”问题联系起来谈谈,可能会有一点启示。


    首先要谈的是学者的责任,从一个历史研究者的角度,怎么看待朝鲜半岛的问题。我们现在承接了国家特别委托项目,《中国周边国家对华关系档案收集与历史研究》,大外也是一个工作站,那么,我们学者的责任是什么?现在,教育部、中宣部一天到晚地让老师们给中央建言献策,这个是不错的,发挥智库作用,为国家的发展战略和具体政策提一些建议。但是,中国做的有点走样。为什么说是走样?两个问题。


    一个问题是我们现在是“一窝蜂”地上,出了点事就让大家都写报告,都出主意。但是没有搞清楚智库的作用和功能,没有把学者特别是做基础研究的学者的作用与国家职能部门的功能分清楚。学者是做基础研究的,理论分析。你要做的是,从历史的角度,从国家关系理论的角度,对外交战略问题提出自己的思考,而具体的对策不是一个学者能够做出来的。就拿“萨德”举例。“萨德”监测范围到底是500公里还是2000公里?什么设备能够针对萨德?我们有没有这样的设备?有的话,有多少,在谁手里?怎么使用?我们都不知道。如果你什么都知道,那就说明有问题了,肯定是泄密了。国家有各个职能部门,外交部、国防部、安全部、商贸部,他们都掌握着非常详细的信息、秘密的情报,他们也掌握着资源。所以,具体问题如何应付,在外交、经济、军事各方面怎么操作,人家比咱们强得多,你不要抢别人的饭碗,而且你也抢不过来。不过,他们也有问题,就是职能部门只是限于某一个方面,大概看不到全局,而且他们没有时间进行基础研究和理论分析。相反,这才是学者的职责和责任。你所做的事情,应该是超越具体的应对方案、措施,去考虑更高一层的战略性问题、理论性问题。提出建议,供决策者思考和选择。大政方针确定后,具体办法,我想国家职能部门有的是办法。我认为,智库和学者的责任是为国家决策者提供战略和方针的选择方案,这是我们还没有做到位的一点。

    第二个问题更严重,就是身为学者不敢说实话。现在我们很多学者,生怕写的东西上级不满意,不接受,在写之前就到处探听风声,“揣摩圣意”,这就错了。其实,国家培养你,让你当这个学者,就是要你把研究的结果和认知提供给决策部门、决策者,至于采用不采用,人家有更全面、更长远的考虑,也就是说他会综合各方意见然后加以考虑,最后选择一个对策。你只管说实话就好。当然这个原因有很多,有些官僚部门、利益集团,也有自己的顾虑和担心,搁置不报,层层阻隔,也是有的。那个我们也管不了,但是你作为一个学者,你摸摸良心,人家让你写个东西,你先探听别人怎么想,那要你干嘛啊。如果知道了领导的意图,还用的着你写吗,随便找个博士生都能写。所以,讲真话讲实话,这是作为智库和学者的本分。


    如果这一点我们能够达成了共识,那么对于中朝关系问题,包括“萨德”问题,我就谈谈我的实话,我所考虑的问题。

    首先我们要搞清楚,中国现在的目标是什么。有了明确的目标,才能有明确的战略,有了明确的战略才能制定政策和策略。现在,中央提出来的“一带一路”是一个发展战略,未来数十年中国的发展战略。这是从中国的国情国力出发,确定的未来发展方向,这是没有错的。中国这么大一个国家,不向外发展,不向欧洲、非洲发展那是不大可能的。你向东,是没有发展余地的。向东是太平洋,太平洋那面是美国,你向美国发展?所以说这个战略方向是对的。但是具体做法,现在有些问题。有一个出发点我们现在没有考虑清楚,就是你走出去的战略,前提和基础是什么?是周边稳定。如果周边都不稳定,你能走得出去吗?就算你走出去,你回不来怎么办?所以,“一带一路”的战略首先是一个稳定周边的问题,你应该把左邻右舍关系搞好。中国有句古话:“远亲不如近邻。”您这周边关系都没搞好,周边国家都不安定,您就想跨过他走出去,那是不可能的。不管是搞港口也好,搞高速公路、铁路也好,你都得从脚下第一步走起。但是我们现在的情况是,危机四伏。现在中国周边国家,日本、越南、菲律宾、印度尼西亚、缅甸、印度,特别是朝鲜半岛,没有一个是消停的、安稳的,没有一个能让中国省心的。就算是蒙古,你看起来大草原十分宁静,实际上也潜伏着危机。我去过蒙古,感觉非常不好。我来到一个喇嘛庙,来来往往人很多,都是自由出入,而我走到门口却被人拦下,让我买票去。我非常不解,别人都不买票,为什么单单要我买票?“因为你是中国人”。这就反映一个问题。乌兰巴托有各种餐馆,招牌都做得不错,韩国餐馆写着韩文,日本餐馆写着日文,但是中国餐馆的招牌没有中文。我问老板为什么,老板说:晚上有人来砸。很能说明问题,就是蒙古人对中国人有一种怨恨、恐惧。我们不想想这种情感是怎么造成的,中国应该怎么消除这个问题,这个不是给政府一点钱就能解决的问题。我去温都尔汗,考察林彪坠机的地方,路上看到很多地方在修公路,蒙古司机告诉我,这是韩国修的,这是日本修的。我说:中国修建高速公路很有经验,又便宜又好。他说:不行,我们是不会引进中国的公司来做的。所以,你想想如果周边现在是这种状况,是不是会影响到中国总体的发展战略。

    说到朝鲜半岛就更是一个严重的问题,朝鲜半岛从朝鲜战争到现在六十多年,就从来没有消停过,这是二战之后世界两大火药桶之一,一个在中东,一个在远东,就是朝鲜半岛。情况很相似,就是周边都是大国,大国利用当地的国家在这里搅和。不同的是,中东地区民族和宗教冲突色彩比较严重,而朝鲜半岛是同一个民族内部的冲突,再就是中东是常规战争,而朝鲜半岛已经进入核武器的层级,所以这个更危险。您就别说他扔原子弹了,就算他自己安全没搞好,自爆了,那中国也受不了啊。我们刚从延边过来,上次朝鲜核武器实验的时候,

    延边就“地震”了。学生从教学楼里都出来了,以为发生地震了。你想,他下次当量再增加,那问题不就更严重了?对于中国来讲,在朝鲜半岛的目标就是稳定,平静。现在中国有人提

    出的概念是:不统,不战,不闹。什么意思呢?不统就是不要统一,不战就是不要发生战争,不闹就是不要闹事。要我说,这就是维持现状,这本身就是矛盾的。南北双方都要统一,不统一才要闹事,甚至打仗。维持现状对中国是最不利的,现状就是分裂,分裂双方就都想统一,统一就要吃掉对方。所以这个战争升级的危险是随时存在的,你不能任由他维持现状,必须尽快改变现状。说实话,现在都觉得晚了。我们的目标应该是彻底解决朝鲜半岛问题,不是维持现状。否则一带一路向往西开展,你屁股后面就着火了。你说要是拉丁美洲出事了,美国还怎么搞这个亚太再平衡,你先回老家处理你们家后院的事吧。如果我们是这样的看待中国的方针和目标,那就引出了下一个问题:怎么解决半岛问题。

    毛主席早就说过,谁是我们的朋友,谁是我们的敌人,这个问题是革命的首要问题。在东北亚的外交格局中,这也是首先要搞清楚的。究竟谁是朋友,谁是敌人?敌我都分不清楚,怎么斗争,跟谁斗争?当然,朋友之间也会有矛盾,与敌人有时也会妥协、合作,否则毛泽东就不会提出正确处理人民内部矛盾的问题了,人民内部也有矛盾,但性质是不一样的。那么用来什么分辨敌友呢,就是目标和利益的一致性,就是他们所追求的战略目标和根本利益是否一致。具有共同的目标和利益,那就是朋友,甚至可以结成同盟。当然,同盟的意义还有不同。同盟一般都是在战争或危机的情况下形成的,战争结束了,危机过去了,朋友还可以做,但同盟就不必要了。顺便说一句,中朝同盟条约直到现在还具有法律意义,这是很奇怪的。这世界千变万化,几十年都过去了,你们俩老是同盟,怎么可能啊!国际关系理论当中有一句名言:只有永恒的利益,没有永久的同盟。这世界都是变化的,但是各自国家的利益是永远要保卫的。

    在东北亚的外交角力中,美国、日本的目标都是遏制中国,中国要发展,他们要遏制,中国要安定,他们要激化矛盾,目标和利益是背离的。这一点比较清楚。问题是朝鲜和韩国,看不太清楚。我们现在就来看一看,朝鲜和韩国,谁是中国的朋友,谁是中国的敌人。表面上看,中朝是同盟关系,美日支持韩国对抗朝鲜,这是冷战的遗产。但是,我认为,经过这几十年的争斗和国际环境的变化,情况早已发生了根本的改变。我有一个基本的判断:就目前的格局来看,朝鲜是中国潜在的敌人,韩国是中国可能的朋友。我来说说会为什么做这个判断:

    先说朝鲜问题。说朝鲜是中国潜在的敌人,意思就是现在它没有显露出来,在外交上,在两国领导人谈话中,都没有什么特别敌对的言辞。但这是不算数的,你不能看言辞,要看根本利益!就是看中国的根本利益和朝鲜的根本利益是不是一致的,有没有一致性。这就要从我研究的中朝关系的历史说起了。中朝过去的确是朋友,是盟友,那时的中朝关系,是毛泽东和金日成等中朝两国老一代领导人缔造的一种特殊的友好关系。不过,与人们想象的不同,这种特别的友谊不是从1950年中国出兵朝鲜开始的,而是从1958年中国志愿军撤出朝鲜开始的。这一点特别重要。一直到1976年毛泽东去世,就维持着这种状态。中国出兵朝鲜没有在中朝两国之间结成友谊,朝鲜战争留给朝鲜人特别是朝鲜领导人的,是一种怨恨的情绪。朝鲜战争这三年,中国抗美援朝在老百姓当中、社会当中、军民当中建构了一种友谊,而且感情很深厚,这个是没有问题的。因为中国的确向朝鲜提供了巨大帮助,付出了巨大牺牲。还有,要特别注意到,毛泽东一再指示中国人民志愿军不要干涉别国内政,要爱护朝鲜的一山一水,一草一木。但是,另一方面,在整个战争的过程当中,在几乎所有重大的战略问题

    上,中朝意见都是分歧的,如军队指挥权的问题、铁路管理权的问题、战俘的问题、停战谈判时间的把握问题,特别是南下战略,就是第三次战役攻陷汉城以后是不是继续南下的问题,双方严重分歧。最后都是斯大林支持了中国的意见,压制了朝鲜的意见。所以金日成感到非常憋屈,情感上有一种阴影。中国是一直压制在他头顶上的一块大石头。1955年4月苏共中央关于朝鲜的一个报告写道,在朝鲜劳动党上层流传着一个普遍的说法,朝鲜战争未能实现祖国统一是中国志愿军造成的,因为他们不愿意让我们统一。这就是朝鲜对抗美援朝战争的历史记忆。

    战争结束了,虽然中国给了朝鲜很大的援助,1953年底,中国提供的无偿援助金额,甚至超过了苏联和东欧国家对朝鲜援助的总额,而且免除了三年战争所有的借款费用。但是,这些都没有能够安抚金日成这颗心。因为中国还有军队在朝鲜国土上,虽然一百多万人最后撤到了四十万人了,但四十万人对朝鲜来讲也是不得了的。这就是1956年八月事件后中朝冲突的一个根源。苏共二十大批判斯大林,引起朝鲜劳动党内部斗争激化,金日成采取残酷斗争的手段,打击延安派和其他反对派,全部开除出党,撤职查办,甚至关进监狱。毛泽东为此勃然大怒,联合苏联干涉朝鲜内政,甚至一度想利用志愿军在朝鲜的机会,以强硬的手段制服金日成。因为毛泽东作了一个判断,认为那时候金日成要摆脱中国甚至要摆脱社会主义阵营。那就像匈牙利一样,金日成就是东方的纳吉,朝鲜可能在东方打开一个缺口,这是不能允许的。但是后来苏联不配合,赫鲁晓夫不同意,最后毛泽东就来了一个一百八十度大转弯,主动向金日成承认错误,而且把志愿军一个不剩全部撤回国了。




    正是因为毛泽东采取了这样一种政策,所以金日成非常感激。1958年金日成到中国来以后跟毛泽东谈得非常好,所以从1958年10月志愿军全部撤出朝鲜以后中朝关系就进入了一个特殊的蜜月时期。虽然后来经历了很多风风雨雨,比如中苏分裂、文化大革命也影响到了中朝关系,但是总的状态没有发生变化。用毛主席的话讲,我们就是朝鲜的大后方,朝鲜缺什么尽管到我们这儿拿,还说东北这里要人有人,要粮有粮,将来要是打起仗来,东北就交给你啦。你不但要熟悉这里的山川地形,还要熟悉这里的干部。所以金日成才跟金正日讲,说东北就是朝鲜的。毛的意思是什么,将来打起仗来,东北和朝鲜连成一片了,这就是东北战区,封金日成做东北战区司令。他没有说这个领土是你的。但是另一方面,在毛的领土观念当中,他也不大重视这个。什么边界划分,什么哪块领土,其实这个都不重要。我举个例子,我们比较一下,你就知道当时毛是怎么看待与朝鲜的领土问题了。雍正六年的时候,安南王和云贵总督打起来了——安南王就是越南王,为了一块地,大概120里一块地。后来雍正王大笔一批,说80里给安南王,40里给云贵总督。就这么分就完了。云贵总督上一个折子,说“我无所谓啊,40里就40里。但我听说安南王不满意,他想把我这40里也要过去。”雍正就不高兴了,就批了一大段话说:朕统御寰宇……,什么什么,反正意思就是天下都是我的,我愿意给谁给谁,我给安南王就是外藩,给云贵总督就是内地,如此而已,区区40里地有什么可争的呢。刚批完,安南王的折子到了朝廷,人家安南王其实很满意,说朝廷这么关照我们,还给了我们80里地,我们世世代代要守好这块地,不让朝廷分心。雍正一听,哈哈大笑,大笔一挥:这40里你也拿去吧,替朕永守之。毛泽东其实就是这个意思:东北你拿去,替朕永守之。这就是毛的领土观。所以,他在处理和朝鲜的关系的时候,做了种种让步。长白山为什么划出去,天池为什么划出去,东北几万人口偷渡移民,中国都认可了,都没有处理。经济援助就更不要说了。他要的就是一个,你朝鲜跟着我就行了。因为那时中国非常孤立。就是昨天我讲的,社会主义阵营分裂以后,东欧国家以及蒙古都跟着苏联,越南和朝鲜是脚踩两只船,中国是彻底孤立了。所以,毛泽东绝对不能让朝鲜也跟着苏联反对中国,那对中国的安全来说就很危险了,那整个东北就被包围了,蒙古、朝鲜、苏联,还了得。所以从毛来讲,只要你跟着我,你要什么都可以给你,无所谓,你都是我的,给你点地算什么。那么在这种情况下,就是当时,朝鲜之所以能够在一个火药桶中生存,在一弹丸之地,生存了几十年,谁也奈何不得他,为什么?背后有一个苏联,有一个中国,两个大国在支撑着他。他怕什么啊。所以朝鲜那点钱都花去搞国防了。要吃要喝要衣裳穿,自有人送。他不在乎。甚至到70年代朝鲜的经济还要超过韩国。这就是毛时代的中朝关系,有这么一种特殊性,朝鲜要什么给什么,百般呵护,中国报纸上从来没有说过一句朝鲜的坏话。所以那个时候,中朝是朋友,是盟友,尽管是不那么协调的,不那么对称的,但仍然是朋友,是盟友,也签有条约。正是因为这种关系,毛泽东可以管住金日成。

    最典型的就是1975年的4月份,金日成到北京来。当时是因为越南实现了统一,柬埔寨红色高棉取得了政权。金日成很着急,马上要发动第二次朝鲜战争,一统天下。但是他必须取得苏联和中国的支持、援助。第一步,先到中国找毛泽东。毛泽东当然知道他干什么来了,欢迎的规格场面那都是前所未有的,规格非常高,声势非常大,但实质问题根本不谈。你看人大会堂金日成和毛泽东的谈话记录。金日成憋了一肚子话,把整个代表团全给轰出去了,就留了他还有吴振宇,国防部长,俩人跟毛谈,就是想谈这事儿,中国能够同意他采取第二次军事行动,朝鲜完成革命运动,实现统一。但毛根本话都不让他说出来,一会谈天谈地,一会问身体怎么样,天南海北谈半天就不谈正事,金日成急的,好不容易逮到一句话,毛问金日成同志最近忙什么呢?最近我们南方形势非常紧张,刚说到这,毛说,我现在耳朵不好,听不见了,眼睛也不好,看不见了,咱们今天就不谈政治问题了,走了,根本就没让金日成把话说出来。中国不同意,苏联也别去了,因为主要是中国的意见,所以那个时候中国是可以管住朝鲜的,对朝鲜做了这么大让步就求得一个朝鲜能听中国的话,在大事上中国是能把握方向的。这个情况到邓时代发生了根本转变,特别是到冷战结束的时候,这种中朝之间毛泽东和金日成缔造的特殊关系已经结束了。中朝关系已经彻底瓦解,这可以从三个方面来看。

    第一是外交。从70年代初中美关系解冻开始,中朝联盟的外交基础就动摇了。原来中朝结盟对付美韩,目标一致,但是现在中美要联手了,中朝在外交战略关系上出现裂缝,朝鲜想拉苏联抗击美国,中国想拉美国抗击苏联,外交指向已经不同了。不过,那时这个问题没有显露出来,一则,毛泽东还是世界革命的领袖,美国在口头上还是革命的对象,毛泽东提出三个世界的理论,美国也是两霸之一。二则,中国在与美国谈判中充分照顾盟友的利益,处处为朝鲜着想,为朝鲜缓解压力,比如取消联合国韩国统一复兴委员会,解散联合国军司令部等。但到邓小平时代就不同了,中美关系直线上升。毛泽东缓和与美国的关系是策略,是必须采取的安全策略,在邓小平那里就是战略问题了。中国要搞改革开放,就必须依靠美国,西方的资金、技术,还有国际市场,没有美国带头,中国无法获得。所以邓小平说,二战以后跟着苏联的都穷了,跟着美国的都富了,改革开放就是向美国开放。在这种情况下,再加上1985年中苏关系正常化,中美关系全面升温,中朝关系越拉越远,他们在外交战略的取向上已经没有一致性可言。

    第二是经济。过去联结中朝经济关系的,靠无产阶级国际主义的链条,毛主席说过,我们之间只算政治账不算经济账,我们和苏联不一样,苏联给你们武器还要钱,我们不是军火商,我们不是做生意。到邓时代变了,市场经济不能不算经济账。企业承包,都有成本,都要算经济账。1983年朝鲜送了一批飞机到中国进行大修,这些飞机都是以前毛主席白送的。现在过了十年八年,需要大修了。沈阳飞机制造厂说了,大修是可以的,可是你得给钱啊,这是需要费用的。朝鲜人就不明白了,这飞机都是毛主席白给的,修一下还要钱吗,咱还是兄弟吗?那不行啊,这工厂我们已经承包了,你不给钱谁给钱啊?结果闹到了外交部,航天部,最后送到邓小平手里了,您看着这事怎么办,谁给钱?邓小平提笔在文件上批了两行字:我们也是军火商,我们也要做生意——邓小平。这就是个典型的例子,我不是说,邓时期中国对朝鲜没有援助,但是数量急剧下降,他要按市场规矩办事,这个无产阶级国际主义现在是不灵了,不能白给了。于是,维系中朝关系的那种特殊的经济链条,也断裂了。


    最后一点,在政治上,1992年中韩建交,彻底摧毁了中朝关系的政治基础。1990年苏联宣布与韩国建交,朝鲜非常紧张。9月,金日成到沈阳见邓小平和江泽民,就一件事,说现在戈尔巴乔夫和韩国建交了,这是对我们的出卖。因为原来朝鲜就两个大国在背后支撑着,一个苏联,一个中国,当时双方都要拉朝鲜,现在苏联不顾朝鲜的劝阻,突然和韩国建交了,这不就是把朝鲜卖了?所以金日成请求中国无论如何不能和韩国建交,如果中国和韩国建交了,我们就彻底孤立了。除非美国承认朝鲜,否则中国不能与韩国建立正式关系。当时,邓小平和江泽民都向金日成保证,中国不会与韩国建交,也就是做点生意,最多我们在汉城建个贸易办事处。但是,不到两年,突然宣布中韩建交了。中国与韩国建交,也是迫不得已。八九风波以后,美国带领西方国家再次封锁中国,邓小平要坚持走改革开放的道路,就必须打破这种封锁,韩国就是一个突破口。但是在金日成看来,当然就是中国出卖了朝鲜。




    所以到了1992年,冷战结束的时候,老一辈缔造的中朝关系,中朝同盟,已经不存在了。在实际关系中,一切都发生了变化。外交、经济、政治,无论哪个方面,中朝之间的利益已经背离,同盟的基础已经瓦解。中朝同盟条约就是废纸一张了。这时的中朝关系,就是一般的、正常的国家关系了。然而,这个正常的国家关系很快就悄悄地发生了变化,走向了敌对。这就是因为朝鲜开始了他的核战略。

    客观地讲,朝鲜的拥核政策,核战略,起因于中朝关系的根本改变,起因于中韩建交。原来朝鲜有两个核大国的支持和保护,他自然可以签署核不扩散条约,现在,这两个大国都先后离他而去,正像金日成讲的,朝鲜彻底孤立了。完全没有安全感了。怎么办?只有抓住核武器这个救命稻草。朝鲜先是失去了苏联这个支柱,现在又失去了中国这个支柱,你说他这样一个小小的国家怎么生存?周围的国家都比他强大,比他先进,他要生存,只有一个办法——掌握核武器,依靠大国靠不住,没有核武器很快就会灭亡。1992年8月中韩宣布建交,半年后,1993年3月朝鲜就宣布退出核不扩散条约。以后,朝核危机便不断升级。所以我想,核战略的发展是朝鲜的根本,他绝对不会放弃,这是根本利益,是生存的基础 ,他是不可能放弃的。不过,我看当时中国大概对这个问题没有想清楚,中国的政策也是非常模糊的,没有把握时机,采取主动的姿态对待和处理这一问题。实际上,中国之所以必须与韩国建交,就是从自身的发展战略、国家利益出发的,现在朝鲜拥核,不断搞核试验,就是朝鲜半岛危机不断升级的根源,也是在中国周边制造不安定状态的根本原因。但这是朝鲜的根本利益要求的。这样,在客观上,中朝的根本利益就发生了对立。中国的根本利益是要求周边稳定,对外发展,但自从朝鲜有了核武器,周围就没安稳过,所以中朝利益必然是对立的。我国外交部发言人认为,朝核危机是美朝对立引起的,作为外交辞令,这样说未尝不可,但是作为学者,我们要清楚,朝鲜改行拥核政策,是中朝关系变化引起的,而朝鲜的核试验引起了韩国、日本的恐慌,美国借题发挥,采取了强硬措施,又导致朝鲜核试验不断升级,危机频繁出现。这两件事有关联,但不是一回事。在解决朝核危机的问题上,中国应该采取主动,关键是不能站在维护朝鲜的立场上解决这一问题。

    我们要看清楚,中国与朝鲜已经不是战友了,在短期内,中朝关系不可能改善。现实的情况是,朝鲜搞一次核实验,美国对东北亚地区的军事力量就增加一分,一会儿弄无人飞机过来,一会儿弄个航母过来,要不就搞个军演。而美国的军事压力,又导致朝鲜再一次核试验。你试验一次,他增兵一次,循环上升。结果呢?真正受到压力的是中国和韩国,最后倒霉的也是中国和韩国。你想,美国派飞机航母什么的过来,包括这个萨德,你说他真的是针对朝鲜,保护韩国么?我想更大的用意是指向中国。美国真的不担心朝鲜,朝鲜想要向美国发射导弹,谈何容易啊,就算他有这个能力,还有几道拦截网拦着呢。美国在亚洲的主要军事基地都在日本,日本也不用担心。所以,美国就是找个借口把舰队放到你家门口来,不就是你家门口闹事你管不了,我来管。所以朝鲜闹事的结果是给中国增加压力与威胁。退一步讲,就是朝鲜的原子弹自爆了,造成核泄漏、核污染,受害的是谁呀?还是中国和韩国,日本隔着一道海,美国还隔着一个太平洋呢!




    回过头来我们看韩国,我为什么说韩国是“可能的朋友”,主要是因为,中韩建交以后,结束了中国和美韩之间的冷战的状态,这已经成为历史了,过去了,你跟美国也建交了,也是合作关系,你跟韩国当然也就不是敌对关系了,不能用传统的观念,传统的立场来看韩国。这是首先要分清的,这二十四年以来,总体来看,中韩关系的发展是正常的,而且是对双方都有好处的,经济上的交流和互补,文化上的交往,我是不看什么韩剧了,但是韩流在中国风靡,说明中韩文化交流很深。其实你到韩国之后会发现,在韩国中华文化的底蕴是非常深厚的,你要是研究古代朝鲜,那古朝鲜文献都是中文,而且都是古汉语,其实这两个民族之间有非常深厚的历史的,文化的联系,源远流长,经济上就更不用说了,朝鲜和韩国与中国的经济联系上差的不是几倍,而是几十倍。而且,在我看来,韩国有些技术在世界上是数一数二的,韩国的管理,别的不讲,就讲医疗系统,你到韩国去看看,还有教育系统。所以,从这些方面,从现实眼见的这些方面,中韩之间的互补性非常强,那这个我就不讲了,关键我们要看清楚,在外交上,在战略安全上,韩国是对中国的威胁呢,还是中国破解威胁的一把钥匙呢?我们是不是能这么来看待这个问题。真正在朝鲜半岛对中国构成威胁的是美国和日本,这种想法没有人否认,但是美国政策的核心他是想干什么呢,他是想把韩国拉进来,因为韩国毕竟在亚洲大陆上,美国隔了十万八千里,一个太平洋呢,日本也隔着一个海呢,所以它要稳定地形成对中国压倒性的威胁,就一定要构成“美日韩铁三角同盟”,而这个铁三角同盟中最弱的一方就是韩国,韩国有两个因素是中国完全可以利用的:一、就是从民族情绪上日韩的对立,这个跟中国人的历史情感是有很多相似之处的,总而言之这是一笔账,是可以利用的;再有一个就是韩国有两股势力,一股是亲美的,一股是反美的。这是很明显的从历任韩国总统,到如今已经下台的朴槿惠,他们是有不同的主张的。所以,如果你外交手段玩得好,你就能够调动韩国内部的反美情绪,反美的势力,来解构美日韩这个铁三角。搞好中韩关系,就是撬动美日韩同盟的一个杠杆。你不能做敌人想让我们做的事,所以我对现在中国处理萨德的做法非常反感,我不知道是谁出的主意,你看干的事,把人家韩国店全给闹得关门了,然后又去砸这个,又去砸那个,中国知网把有关韩国的学术论文都给删除了。我来之前,我们召开了一次国际会议,我还专门想讨论这个,我请韩国的亲华派,一个很有影响力的学者,北韩大学的一个副校长,也是我们冷战史学界长期的朋友。飞机票都买好了,结果没有拿到签证,说现在中国不让韩国人来,哪有这么干事的!说高了,你是完全没有外交头脑,你干的这个事就是敌人想让我们干的事,你现在把韩国向美日韩铁三角推了。说低了,你还是不是一个文明大国,你还是不是一个文明古国,咱们至于这样吗?你让周围邻国怎么看中国?你就知道拿一个公司撒气,你不动动脑子,有点智慧没有啊?我们这样做,伤的是韩国的民心,而对待一个民主国家,争取民心和民意是最重要的。你只是搞定一届政府,那是短期行为,长远的必须争取民心。我们现在做的事,是美国人和朝鲜人最想看到的。朝鲜人也非常高兴,就是现在这个萨德闹到这个结果,中韩关系的破裂,第一高兴的是美国,第二高兴的是朝鲜,朝鲜就想等着中韩分裂,你最后没办法了吧,你就得帮助他,所以我们现在做的都是亲者痛,仇者快的事。我就说国家养我们这么多学者干什么的呢?关键时候您得出来说话,所以我觉得我们对韩国的这种定位,如果是把他作为一个可以争取的、未来可能的朋友的话,那是不是我们整个的这个外交策略、外交战略就要调整,现在敌我分明了吧,如果你能认可我这个看法,我们现在朝鲜半岛危机的起源是什么,各方的目标是什么,敌人和朋友我们都搞清楚了,我们是不是应该重新制定一个对朝鲜半岛的策略呢?

    当然,在这里边呢就涉及到一个更大的问题。因为你想破解这个美日韩三角同盟关系,你想寻求朝鲜半岛的长期的平稳和和平,彻底的解决朝鲜半岛的问题,还有两个迈不过去的门槛,这两个问题如果中国没有一个清醒的认识,没有一个解决认识的办法,也是不行的。因为这是躲不开的问题。第一个问题,朝鲜半岛的统一问题。第二个问题,跟美国的关系问题。

    对朝鲜半岛的统一中国应该持什么立场,应该持一个什么态度。我个人认为还是和平统一。当然这个口号,这个方针,五十年代毛泽东就是这么说的。后来邓小平也是这么说的。一贯的中国政府都是这么说的。但是过去很大程度上是宣传性的,是口号性的,是策略性的。你看看文件你就知道了,提还得提和平统一。从金日成到金正日时代,他对统一的问题大概是这样的,就是把和平统一作为一个口号一个策略提出来,但是呢,私下秘密的武装,武力统一的准备一直在做。他基本的做法是鼓励南朝鲜的革命运动、学生运动。这个在五十年代、六十年代,甚至到七十年代,光州事件,那个时候都有这种可能性。就是只要南方的群众一起来反政府,然后他里应外合就把韩国政府消灭,消灭了他就统一了。这是金日成到金正日的时代他们的南北政策的核心。那现在出了什么问题呢?现在韩国革命还有可能吗?没可能啦!你到韩国去看看,谁革命啊?我这次去了,参加了一百万人的烛光游行,我有一个深刻的体会,我跟着他们的游行队伍走,我觉得韩国不会再闹革命了。你就看着百万人的游行,纪律这么好,这么安静,路线、时间,有条有井,它完全进入了一个社会法治的体系,韩国它已经变了。它已经不是民众反抗,社会走向撕裂的时代了。那个时代金日成还有可能武装统一,现在已经不可能了。他没这个机会了。除非他决心与美国开战。如果要和平统一的话,是没有可能让朝鲜来主导这个统一的。你说韩国可能接受让朝鲜主导吗?我们已经从军人专制走向了一个民主社会,有宪法,有选举,就弹劾一个朴槿惠都这么费劲呐,我们再请来一个皇上?不可能的!所以这个可能性排除了。战争的可能性也可以排除。我可以这样讲,美国是不可能主动发动战争的。你别看他军演,那么折腾,要是中国不点头答应,美国绝不敢发动战争。美国事先不跟中国打招呼,不问中国和俄罗斯的态度,就在这里发动一场战争,那就意味着世界大战的前声。他必定要考虑整个问题。所以你说中国能打这么个仗吗?中国肯定不会答应啊 。中国要是真答应了,那后边这个故事就大了。朝鲜主动发动战争的可能性也不大。为什么?很简单的一个道理。这美国人就等着你干呢!美国人的武力是完全没有问题的。他如果要打击朝鲜就必须站在一个道德制高点上。有理,让全世界谁都说不出什么来。所以你说这点他金家不明白? 他当然明白。他动手那天就是他灭亡之日。美国就等着你呢,你发动战争,美国可能付出一些代价让世界知道,战争是谁发动的,然后翻过手就灭了他。所以我想战争的可能性是不大的。那么就是和平统一,而且是以韩国为主导的和平统一。我个人觉得这应该是个比较好的出路,也应该是中国持有的立场。

    为什么这样?一个问题,朝鲜半岛统一对中国到底是有利还是不利?过去有一种说法,一直说不能让朝鲜半岛统一,因为朝鲜半岛统一是对中国有威胁的。我就很不理解说这些话的人。第一,你一天到晚嚷嚷着要统一祖国,你就不让人家统一,凭什么啊?你统一就一套理论,怎么统一,应该统一,到了朝鲜半岛你就换啦。就算是对中国不利,你也不能只站在中国的角度来看这个问题。这是原则问题,就像咱们处理海洋问题,黄海和南海,你不能持有一个统一的原则,你将来会自相矛盾。另外,真的朝鲜半岛统一就对会中国造成威胁吗?不会的。领土问题都是无稽之谈,我就特别反对那些东北工程当时搞的,完全是胡闹。韩国是不是有人提出来渤海国问题和高句丽问题,是有。但是,他不是学术界的正宗的派系,就是学术圈以外的一批右翼的人在鼓噪,你理他干嘛啊,根本用不着你管他。我们这中央下一文件,来一东北工程,恨不得全国力量都弄进来,一下研究高句丽的全国好几百人上千人,不就为瓜分国家那点钱吗。那造成什么结果呢?造成整个韩国觉得中国就拿这个事欺负人。反过来看,我们中国十亿人里网民说错误话的少吗?今天收回这个,明天收回那个,什么外蒙古是我们的,一百五十万平方公里收回来,这痴人说梦的事有的是啊,人家苏联搞过一百五十万平方公里工程啦?所以咱们应该动动脑子,边界是没有问题的,个别的调整是可能的。中国许多网民这个民族主义情绪是完全没必要的,完全是错误的。你跟蒙古是签了国际条约的,那是经过公投的,你想收回来就收回来啊,那是不可能的。为什么人家这么怕你啊,不就是这原因吗,还让修铁路,修着修着修你们家去了。你说普京嚷嚷半天开发远东,为什么不敢利用东北的资源,劳动力、技术、设备,很大一个问题就是这个领土问题。1954年,赫鲁晓夫来的时候,他就提过这事,那时赫鲁晓夫给了中国很多援助,又是钱、又是设备,还主动归还了旅顺口。毛主席也是很感激他,说赫鲁晓夫同志你看你们需要什么,我们也应该帮你们,赫鲁晓夫说我们就是缺点劳动力,毛说好那没问题,我现在给你派一百万人过去。赫鲁晓夫没管过外交,你想他刚上来,他原来在乌克兰管农业,后来到了莫斯科市委书记,所以他不知道这里面利害关系,马上就答应啦,说好啊,毛主席咱俩说定啦。一回国,人家外交部就说,不能这样,这原来远东就是中国的,他再来一百万人,在这儿生儿育女,这不就拿回去了吗?后来这事就搁下了,一百万人改成十万人,最后就去了不到一万人,后来就不了了之了。这很敏感的。我说这的意思就是边界是不可能改变的。韩国如果有头脑的话他也不会提出边界要求,作为一个政府,作为一个宪政的政府,怎么可能,就是老百姓不懂的这个道理,政府是懂得的,这不是问题。第二,就是难民的问题。这个问题中国已经经历过好几次了,我想它也是个技术问题,不难解决。从这个九一八事变到二战,从日本占领东北,到打败日本解放东北,到朝鲜战争前后,再到五八年大跃进,中朝之间的移民来来回回走动已经是很平常的事了,没有什么大不了的。所以那些认为统一了会对我们中国不利是没有什么道理的,杞人忧天。

    关键是,以韩国为主体实现统一会不会对中国造成威胁呢?我们前面的分析对韩国的定位,他是一个潜在的朋友,如果定位正确的话,我觉得他的统一只会对中国有好处,而且受益最大的就是东北。东北为什么发展不起来?主观上说领导干部的观念有问题,那怎么沿海其他省市都这么发达,东北老是这样,很多都是他观念有问题,但这是一方面,我也不是指责他们,我们就是客观的分析。我说的是从经济发展战略上讲,朝鲜就像中国喉咙里一块骨头在这堵着,一旦朝鲜半岛打通了,是个什么结果?东北这盘棋就全活了,从经济上,一下四通发达,港口也起来了,交通运输物流。现在韩国就绕着东北,本来东北离他最近,应该最受益的,是谁耽误了东北?就是朝鲜。所以打通了这个通道,朝鲜半岛统一对中国只有好处,特别是对东北。这是一个问题,就是朝鲜半岛统一的问题,我觉得没有什么过多值得顾虑的。

    应该顾虑的,是第二个问题,要费脑筋的应该是和美国的关系。这中美关系呢,其实,它的一个转折点就是六四,就是八九年这个事,在此之前,中美关系非常好,那是真正的战略互信。但是,八九以后,就出现了一个比较大的问题,美国不再相信中国了。所以,为什么中韩建交,中国也要推动,其实中国也是要把韩国作为一个突破口。因为第二轮对中国的封锁,所以从那以后,中美关系就开始走下坡。不稳定,虽然后来又恢复,又搞一些合作,但是总是磕磕碰碰的,就是没有再回到原来的那个高度,那个起点。随着中国的逐渐发展,实力膨胀,美国的这种防范的心理,也是越来越强烈。那么这出了个问题,中美这种纠纷也好,或者是这种纠葛,怎么解?能不能解?在什么层面上,中国应该跟美国,达成一种默契和共识。我有一个想法,我是学历史的,我提个什么想法呢,就是“重回雅尔塔”。




    雅尔塔体系,同学们是不是都了解啊?就是二战结束的时候,召开这个雅尔塔会议,美国,英国,苏联,大国领袖在那里为确定一个战后国际秩序而召开的一个会议,制订了许多文件。简单地说,特别是它的原则,就是把世界划分成四大块。美国管北美,中国管亚洲,苏联管东欧,英国、法国管西欧。然后,五个常任理事国,在联合国,执行大国一致的原则,凡世界上大事,这五个国家必须一致同意才能执行,才能通过。然后,每个国家,管好你分内的事,亚洲出事找中国,美洲出事找美国,东欧出事找苏联,各自负起责任,这个世界就安宁了。同时,不越界干涉,亚洲发生了事,用不着美国管。这个结构,我个人认为,不公平,但是很现实。说到现在这个时候了,为什么还要让大国搞划分世界范围啊?因为你不这样做,这个世界就不得安宁。特别是有了核武器这个因素,所以这个大国一致的原则和这个核不扩散,是勾连在一起的。你说要是全世界各国,咱们在座的每位手里有颗原子弹,你说这世界还了得吗?所以核不扩散这是有道理的,小国搞原子弹不安全。雅尔塔体系的构建,虽然很快就被破解了,因为冷战的兴起,就把这个结构给打破了。但是我个人认为,罗斯福和斯大林他们一致达成了这种构想,是有它的历史合理性的。现在我们是不是应该重新考虑一下?再开一次雅尔塔会议,再构建一个大国划分势力范围,各自负起责任。那如果是这样,中国、美国、俄国和欧洲,达成一个共识,剩下的就是划线的问题。原来,按着雅尔塔协议,台湾和朝鲜半岛就不在美国的防御线内,那跟美国没关系(那是我们家的事,我们自己管),包括台湾,1950年1月5日,杜鲁门发表声明,明确讲了,台湾不在美国的势力范围内,台湾是中国的内政。国务卿艾奇逊也讲,朝鲜半岛不在美国的防御线之内。这是美国人自己说的,我们还回到原点上。包括南海,跟美国没关系,但是双方要是谈好了,包括公海航行什么的,这些都得谈好。但是是谁的势力范围,就是谁的责任,如果说1945年,中国没有能力负起这个责任,但是我觉得现在,完全有这个能力了。有没有这种可能性呢?我觉得现在的机会是有的。你看,美国这个新总统是非常务实的,是讲实际利益的。俄国现在对东北亚心有余力不足,安倍家里着火了,韩国的左翼党派很可能当政,机会不错。但是技术上是不是能把握的好,这个我还不太敢说,中国这个外交技巧,比起美国和英国,还差得比较远,这个咱也不能不承认。

    说到这了,我就要再强调一句,同学们都是学外语的,但是外语只是一个工具,除了专门研究语言,外语是做好各行各业的工具。你们将来有人要搞外事,外交,外贸,那就不是只学好外语就行了。新中国的外交官是两代人,革命的一代和翻译的一代,这两代人都不是职业外交家。不是说他们人不好,是说这个外交官的构成,那时的环境造成的。你是外交家,你当然应该懂外语了,但是革命刚成功,懂外语的这些外交官都不可信,不是反革命,就是投机分子,就是英美训练回来的,信不过别人,自己又没有,那当然就是革命家来了。所以你看我们驻各国大使,都是将军,一个字看不懂,一句话听不懂,但是他们有革命经验,至少是搞过情报的。文化大革命,是个断层,文化大革命以后,上来的外交官,基本上一色的外语翻译出身,就原来给领导当翻译的,现在领导退休了,他们当大使了,当外交官了。他们的缺陷呢,就是缺乏革命经验,知识结构有问题,他外语非常好,能听懂别人的话,但是别人听不懂他的。不是语言听不懂,就是你说的话,你的历史知识,你对外交技巧的掌握,你对国家政策的分析,法律的了解,各个方面,都欠缺。所以中国下一代的外交官,都处在你们当中,包括你们外国语大学,还有外交学院。外语当然很重要,但这是最低要求,最起码的。如果真的想当好中华人民共和国的外交官,需要学历史、法律、国际关系。国家的大政方针确定下了,如何落实,如何执行,那就需要外交技巧,外交智慧了,这就是职业外交家责任了。

    说到我们学者的责任,就是要对基础的东西,对历史,对法律,对国际政治,做好深入的研究,把我们的研究成果报给国家。这也是很重要的,学者研究,就要尊重学术规范,不能掉以轻心。我再给你举个例子,我们有一位南海问题专家写了一本书说:1952年日本出版的地图上,就将南海划给中国了,标了中华人民共和国的字样,而且这个地图是日本外相推荐给全国的,证明这是官方的立场。这个情况对中国在南海问题上的说法很有说服力、很重要。外交部发言人,各报纸上都这么讲,我们还要把这本书翻译成日文,好好教育一下日本人。翻译这本书的学者是我们周边研究团队的,他立刻给我写了封信,他说至少要将那个地图找出来啊,没有原地图怎么敢这么说呢。于是找来找去,找到1952年的那张地图,但在南海的地方没有标记中华人民共和国的字样。他觉得很奇怪,这个东西无法造假,学者疏忽的可能性比较大,他分析有可能在别的地图上,所以他就翻来覆去,把所有有关南海的日本地图都找出来了,最后发现,在1957年的地图上,标着中华人民共和国,但是1957年的地图呢,他是1952年地图的改版,加上了中华人民共和国的字样,中文,英文,但是这个已经不是1952年外相推荐的那张地图了,这里面是有很大差别的。这就是我们学者的工作疏忽,没有认真地核对,核查原地图,这要是翻译成日文,传出去,中国可太丢人了,外交上会多么被动!日本人最善于抠细节,很精明。你本来以为抓住人家一个把柄,结果反而给人家送一条枪去。所以我的意思呢,作为一个学者,考虑问题都要非常细致,全面,以免因为我们自己的行为给国家利益带来损害。

    好了,关于中朝关系就讲这些吧。关于朝鲜半岛问题,我是把我想了很长时间的一些想法说出来与大家交流,未必对。我是从历史的角度看问题,研究结果告诉我,朝鲜已经不是盟友了,而韩国已经化敌为友了。可能有些东西我也想回去给上面写个报告,听不听是他们的事,讲不讲是我们的责任。反正我是特别着急,照这样下去,中国处理朝鲜半岛问题会越来越被动。如果我们定位定好了,大势看清楚了,敌我友分明白了,政策的制定就比较清楚了,至于制定那些具体的方针措施,我想中国人有的是方法。比如萨德这个问题,闹到现在你怎么转换,双方都要找台阶下。咱们现在是把怨气撒到韩国头上,撒到韩国人民头上,撒到韩国公司头上,错了!你就应该说,这个错误的决定,都是朴槿惠干的,所以她的下台是应该的!现在韩国总统大选,文在寅可能上台,他也可以把责任推给前任政府,可以这个事交给国会讨论,他退到后面,如果民主党控制了国会的多数,要是国会不通过,他也不得罪美国人。无论如何,韩国人有韩国人的智慧,中国人有中国人的智慧。只要有准确的定位,分清敌友,至于执行这些方针政策的具体办法与措施,我想国家的职能部门会有很多考虑。总之,我们学者给中央提供的应该是有学术基础的、有战略性考虑的建议与意见。

    I'd give him the Nobel for that.

    The incompetent person in the Trump administration has to live in that stupor shroud every day.

    So I hope the Trump team learns to delegate — carelessness in one office, backbiting in another. I hope the president continues to play golf (I don’t get those progressive critics who say Trump is ruining the world and then they complain because he takes time off). I hope his team continues to take advantage of the fact that it takes only one inexperienced stooge to undo the accomplishments of 100 normal workers.
    ...
    One of the things I’ve learned about incompetence over the past few months is that it is radically nonlinear. Competent people go in one of a few directions. But incompetence is infinite.

    The human imagination is not capacious enough to comprehend all the many ways the Trumpians can find to screw this thing up.

    DAVID BROOKS! DAVID BROOKS! DAVID BROOKS!

    Modest, endearing. Brooks' best.

    But even Trump will eventually hit the limits of human endurance. I know what it is like to be profoundly incompetent, and it is exhausting.

    Just to take a small example by way of illustration, in the days before GPS I was (and remain) profoundly incompetent at comprehending driving directions. I would ask for directions and all would start off normally: “Go down Fourth Street and take a right on Poplar.”

    But then all would slide into a fog of incomprehensibility and I would keep nodding furiously to try to persuade the person that I could follow what was being said: “Then you toggle over that spur of the thruway that goes under the overpass before the six roundabouts of the gargle.”

    By this time entire hemispheres of my brain had shut down, and as the person kept talking, my entire existence slipped into a catatonic mist: “After that it’s just six wheedles up the perplex and after a quick stop at the bolint it’s the 27th driveway on the right.”

    DAVID BROOKS! DAVID BROOKS!

    This column will never be forgotten. It will live forever. This is an instant political classic.

    Trump’s greatest achievements are in the field of ignorance. Up until this period I had always thought of ignorance as a void, as an absence of knowledge. But Trump’s ignorance is not just an absence; it is a rich, intricate and entirely separate universe of negative information, a sort of fertile intellectual antimatter with its own gravitational pull.

    It’s not so much that he isn’t well informed; it’s that he is prodigiously learned in the sort of knowledge that doesn’t accord with the facts of our current dimension.

    It is in its own way a privilege to be alive at the same time as a man who is the Albert Einstein of confirmation bias, a man whose most impressive wall is the one between himself and evidence, a man who doesn’t need to go off in search of enemies because he is already his own worst one.

    OMG DAVID BROOKS!

    Now I’m not underestimating the president’s own capacity for carrying on in an incompetent manner almost . I don’t think we’ve reached peak Trump.

    The normal incompetent person flails and stammers and is embarrassed about it. But the true genius at incompetence like our president flails and founders and is too incompetent to recognize his own incompetence. He mistakes his catastrophes for successes and so accelerates his pace toward oblivion. Those who ignore history are condemned to retweet it.


    David Brooks!

    But can this last? By midsummer, during the high vacation and indictment season, we could see empty hallways in the West Wing and a disorienting incompetence shortage emanating from Washington.

    DAVID BROOKS

    Twice. I laughed out loud twice at the end of that opening paragraph. I lol'd twice more through the rest of it. This is David Brooks at his best.

    But still, I worry that at the current pace the Trump administration is going to run out of failure. So far, we’ve lived in a golden age of malfunction. Every major Trump initiative has been blocked or has collapsed, relationships with Congress are disastrous, the president’s approval ratings are at cataclysmic lows.

    David Brooks

    I just read that the Trump administration has filled only 22 of the 553 key positions that require Senate confirmation. This makes me worry that the administration will not have enough manpower to produce the same volume and standard of incompetence that we’ve come to expect so far.

    ILiterallyLaughedOutLoud

    Trump's Lies: No U.S. Destroyers Near Korean Peninsula

    'Powerful' USS Carl Vinson steams toward North Korea

     President Donald Trump on Wednesday told the Fox Business Network, “We are sending an armada, very powerful. We have submarines, very powerful, far more powerful than the aircraft carrier.”
    ...
    The “armada,” officially called the U.S. Navy’s Carrier Strike Group 1, is currently making its way toward North Korea. The strike group is led by the flagship U.S.S. Carl Vinson...


    Nothing to see here: US carrier still thousands of miles from Korea

    For more than a week, media reports in the U.S. and around Asia routinely have mentioned the approach of the aircraft carrier Carl Vinson's carrier strike group, seemingly implying an attack on North Korea could be imminent.
    ...
    On Saturday — according to photographs released by the U.S. Navy — the carrier passed north through the Sunda Strait, the passage between the Indonesian islands of Sumatra and Java. It's about 3,500 miles from Korea. 
    ...
     Off the record, several officials expressed wonderment at the persistent reports that the Vinson was already nearing Korea. “We’ve made no such statement,” said one official. 
    ...
    Officials did, however, flatly deny reports that three U.S. carrier strike groups were being directed to mass off the Korean peninsula in a few weeks. TrumpLied

    Aircraft Carrier Wasn’t Sailing to Deter North Korea, as U.S. Suggested


    As worries deepened last week about whether North Koreawould conduct a missile test, the White House declared that ordering an American aircraft carrier into the Sea of Japan would send a powerful deterrent signal and give President Trump more options in responding to the North’s provocative behavior.

    The problem was, the carrier, the Carl Vinson, and the four other warships in its strike force were at that very moment sailing in the opposite direction, to take part in joint exercises with the Australian Navy in the Indian Ocean, 3,500 miles southwest of the Korean Peninsula. TrumpAlwaysLies