"King of the North", Andy Burnham, former Manchester Mayor is Britain's New Prime Minister
Monday, July 20, 2026
Sunday, July 19, 2026
LeBron Le Watch
Kalshi: Miami 47%, Cleveland 35%, GSW 13%
Polymarket: Miami 48.2%, Cleveland 31.3%, GSW 13.1%
Saturday, July 18, 2026
July 2026
If Pat Riley pulls this off, landing both Giannis Antetokounmpo and Lebron James in the same month, I give up, that's the NBA executive GOAT right there.
He will have gotten LeBron in essentially a two-superstars-at-one-price deal for Giannis, requiring no additional personnel assets, for only (deeply discounted) money. The combined deal would be Giannis, Bobby Portis and LBJ for Tyler Herro, Kel'el Ware, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Kasparas Jakučionis, the rights to Nate Ament, two first round and two second round draft picks.
Public Occurrences July 18, 2026
US military says 2 troops are dead and 1 is missing after Iran attacks a base in Jordan
The U.S. military on Saturday announced its first troop deaths due to direct Iranian fire since the opening days of the war, with two killed and another missing in an attack on a base in Jordan after days of intensifying exchanges of fire.
...
remarks read out on state TV and attributed to Mojtaba Khamenei...called President Donald Trump’s signature “worthless and invalid.” An Iranian negotiator said Tehran was suspending its commitments to the interim deal signed about a month ago and aimed at permanently ending the fighting.
Very ominous.
9:49 am:
No "Unconditional Surrender?"
How the US and Iran dragged each other back toward war
APRight? That is a precisely correct headline. War usually requires at least one side to make a fundamental miscalculation. Miscalculation presupposes calculation as alternative and calculation is a rational process. Here, I won't say never, I'll say I never heard of both sides not calculating, of being irrational...Well, that's the Toilet Nation. Is Iran calculating? No. This is irrational on Iran's part too. Maybe this is a near-first and these two lobotomy patients will stumble into peace? Probably not.
*
*Gamblers Anonymous update
On no credible intel whatsoever the odds at post time are:
Polly: Biscayne Bay 36%, Lake Mistake 28%, Broad Street 16%, San Fran Bay 14%
Kalshi: B.B. 35%, L.M. 29%, S.F. 17%, B.S. 14%.
The darts continue to be very "precise". "Accurate"? 🤷
July 17:
Gambling Anonymous update:
On no credible intel whatsoever the odds at post time are:
Polymarket Lake Mistake 29%, Biscayne Bay 25%, San Fran Bay 23%, Broad Steeet 19%.
Kalshi Lake Mistake 31%, Bisayne Bay 28%, San Fran Bay 23%, Broad Street 15%.
July 16, 11:56 pm:
I'm a believer in betting markets as an accurate predictor of the future...in some subjects. In a presidential horse race, for example, they are as accurate as survey research polling. In similar long lead time one v. one matchups in sports, for another: Ohio vs Michigan, "Knicks"-"Spurs" in the NBA Finals. In the NBA regular season on the other hand, the games coming every other day on average, the line is interesting but I would not bet on it, so to speak.
Now, in the NBA and on other subjects, you can bet on just about anything. "Props" bets, i.e. an individual player's stats for a game, are just one example of how exotic sports futures investing has become. Mindless too. What data inform a wager that Terry Rozier will score under 12 points in a game against New Orleans? You're an addict if you make props bets. Easily manipulated too.
The markets on LeBron James' next team are mindless. There is no data to make an informed investment. It's all hunches, guesses, wishes, and fears. So right now Polymarket investors have Golden State a close second, at 33.6%, to Cleveland (34.2%). Over on Kalshi, the odds are 32% and 36%. Yeah, the polls in two of the last three presidential elections were similarly precise. "Precise" has a meaning in statistics: your data is closely clustered together, just not around the bulls eye. "Accuracy" is the statistical term for darts that land near the bulls eye. There is no meaningful data on Golden State and Cleveland; no meaningful data on Miami or Philadelphia. Yeah, it's a little interesting--in the absence of data, to see where people put their money, but this isn't a horse race, there is no "track record" that can be checked for any of these horses, and the only intel is basically limited to what Shams Charania puts out. For what it's worth, and I do think Shams is worth a lot, it's among Cleveland, Miami, and Philadelphia (that is alphabetical listing only). Don't tell the dudes gambling their lives away at Polymarket and Kalshi that.
Friday, July 17, 2026
Public Occurrences July 17, 2026
Trump blames Canada for wildfire smoke, says he will add cost to tariffs
Reuters
US and Iran escalate strikes across Mideast; bridges and a water plant hit
OTTAWA, July 17 (Reuters) - President Donald Trump on Friday blamed Canada for wildfire smoke spreading across the United States and said he would add the "incalculable cost" of dealing with the pollution to existing tariffs on Canadian goods.
"We are holding Canada responsible for the fact that they are not properly maintaining their Forests ... and the United States is being unnecessarily invaded by filthy, polluted, and unhealthy air," he said in a Truth Social post.
"This is Willful Negligence, and becoming a yearly occurrence, costing the United States Billions of Dollars, which cost of this pollution must of necessity be added to the TARIFFS Canada is currently paying."
4:50 pm:
Good day! The undersigned Idiot Blogger was a total lazy bones today. Now to the public occurrences...
US and Iran escalate strikes across Mideast; bridges and a water plant hit
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — The United States and Iran escalated their attacks across the Middle East on Friday, trading strikes aimed at infrastructure and military targets as their battle over the Strait of Hormuz intensified.
The U.S. expanded its attacks against Iran by hitting more bridges and energy sites and collapsing a tower at a key Iranian port...In response, Iran launched missiles into U.S.-allied nations in the Mideast, including Qatar, a mediator in the war, and Kuwait, where one of the desert nation’s water desalination plants was damaged.
That is a win for the Toilet Nation. Those are strategic sites hit in Iran. Their response was to throw a temper tantrum and pick on the little kids. That's not wise nor strategic nor a winning move. Iran is irrational here.
Jaylen-Optionality Trade
Since I mentioned that, Shams Charania reported yesterday the one consideration that makes this all make more sense now: Jaylen Brown is eligible this summer, right now, for a 2-year contract extension at $70M per. Shams:
"They knew they were not gonna offer (that)... and that would have caused a reaction. This could have gotten ugly."
Which is Team Joy?* # **
**Update. I neglected to mention one factor working against Golden State: playing in the Western Conference. You notice that all of the Lebron contenders except Peaceniks are in the Least: Lake Mistake, Biscayne Bay, Broad Street, Ice? LeBron said after his "Lakers" were eliminated by OKC that they "out-talented us". La-La Lake-Lake finished fourth this season just past. Peaceniks finished TENTH, yeah, just like the "Heat" in the Least, with a WORSE RECORD, 37-45, than the "Heat". Didn't make the playoffs from the play-in, just like Miami. This off-season Peaceniks have done bupkus. The "Heat" got Giannis Antetokounmpo! That's MORE than nothing. Phila. was nowhere on LeBron's radar until Beans traded Jaylen Brown to them for "optionality".
There is no way in haill that 41-year old LeBron James can lift Peaceniks, with co-stars Steph Curry (38) and Draymond Green (36) into contention with OKC and San Antonio. Frigging NO WAY. So while it is probably true that LeBron is not ring-chasing, he also does not want to slip from irrelevance into retirement.
End of ** update.
Fullcourtpass
@Fullcourtpass
There is a sense LeBron James could make his decision after NBA summer league is over, per @JakeLFischer
#Updated Update:
Steve Kerr to a fan today: "We need LeBron." Kerr: "Oh we got him." Kerr is a good-humored, humorous guy and as you can hear the fan and those with him started laughing. Kerr being funny? Idk.
And then...
Fullcourtpass
@Fullcourtpass
There is a sense LeBron James could make his decision after NBA summer league is over, per @JakeLFischer
The final day is this Sunday (7/19)
(Miami is 11% on Kalshi.)
*Update. That was well-reasoned wasn't it? Thank you. But Shams said, after I posted this shit, that it's down to Lake Mistake, Biscayne Bay, and...Broad Street. Golden Pond is NOT among the three finalists. Apologize for any inconvenience.
LeBron James' agent has stated that James' next team will be chosen on where he can find the most happiness to end his career.
1) LBJ is a basketball billionaire. He does not care who has the most money to offer him.
2) LBJ has won three rings. Winning a fourth is not his top priority.
3) Happiness/Joy = less pressure + lifestyle
Criteria one rules out Miami.
Criteria two rules out Cleveland.
Criteria three rules out Miami (ALWAYS pressure in "Heat Culture")...
Jimmy Butler left Miami to get "joy" back
...and Cleveland (they have to win a title).
So the consensus top contender, Cleveland, is ruled out. The up-until-recently second top contender, Miami, is ruled out. On Rich Paul's stated criteria, which team is going to get LeBron?
"Heat" wound too tight; Golden State Joy
Where did JB III go to get his "joy back"?
Golden State.
Thursday, July 16, 2026
Паблік Океренсес», 16 липня 2026 року
Just another turd in the Toilet Nation toilet bowl, sharing the criteria for diagnosis, "American": mentally ill, violent, white, stupid.
AP Exclusive: ICE officer in Maine shooting has history of violent behavior, family and records say
David Brouillette has a history of terrifying and violent behavior, according to those relatives. They accuse him of attacking women in his life over the years, and one shared a voicemail with the AP from last winter in which he told her that he thought someone should slit her throat.
8:58 am:
8:58 am:
Uh Oh: Street Protests in Ukraine as Zelensky Forces Out Young, Popular Face Of Ukraine, Drone Innovator Fedorov
Mykhailo Fedorov, 35, was the Minister of Defense who thrilled Ukrainians and impressed the world with his spectacularly successful drone warfare innovations and soldier-consumer armament procurement program.
Those made him popular with the soldiers but also the face of the opposition to Zelensky and unpopular among generals. Telling personal aides he could no longer manage the conflicts, Zelensky fired him.
Wednesday, July 15, 2026
😳
Well, I, er...Okay, okay! I did it a few times--WORE SOME SHIRTS THAT WAS ALL! WE DID NOT HAVE A RELATIONSHIP! I do NOT now nor did I EVER have a relationship with Mr. Lauren OR his sponsorships. I am "FAMILIAR, but (DECIDEDLY) NOT INTERESTED."
"...for those of us here in the sclerotic and collapsing United States...
The Mitch McConnell mystery is solved. But it doesn't look good for America
The senator is alive, a key requirement to maintain one’s job in the US Senate
lolLike any good proof-of-life photo, it featured that day’s newspaper. After a nearly month-long disappearance, when it was clear that he had been rushed to the hospital but not clear why or in what condition, Mitch McConnell broke his silence, as they say in the tabloids, by releasing a photograph of himself sitting upright in a hospital bed.
...
One almost has to feel gratitude to Lindsey Graham, the South Carolina senator, who had the decency to die out in the open, without inflicting a mystery on the public. In McConnell’s case, the circumstances bordered on absurd. Think of it as Schroedinger’s Republican senator: for a while, sealed in his box of secrecy, the former Senate majority leader was both alive and dead.
Excellent, excellent, excellent. Oh, such good writing.
Now that mystery has been resolved. But the episode reflects a grim reality of US politics:...American leaders are so old that it is plausible that they could drop dead at any moment, and so unaccountable that it’s not clear anyone would bother to tell us if they did.
Oh my goodness. lol.
Think, for a moment, of the peculiarities of Mitch McConnell’s job, which he has now occupied for 41 years. He is among the most powerful men in the country...If you’re anything like me, your own job probably involves much less privilege and much less power, and you spend your days doing things that might be more honorable but are undoubtedly of less consequence. Now ask yourself [I love that]: could you, with your lesser powers and lesser responsibilities, simply disappear from your job for four weeks without notice or explanation? And when you re-emerged from this abandonment, do you think you could claim that you are entitled to remain in that job, even if you can’t perform it, by the simple virtue of being technically alive?
My jelly belly is shaking, this is so good.
The entitlement is staggering, and so is the reality that McConnell is not even the worst example of what is a thoroughly bipartisan phenomenon. A weak and senescent Dianne Feinstein...Joe Biden was so addled and confused...Chuck Grassley, a sitting Republican senator from Iowa, is 92... And of course, there’s Donald Trump: never the sharpest tool in the shed, the president... has devoted himself less to policy...than to the kind of idle vanity projects that might serve to distract a retiree, like pool beautification and home remodeling.
😂
...What is offensive about the gerontocracy is how transparently it reveals the rot at the core of the American political system, how plainly it demonstrates that our elected leaders do not serve the people, but serve only their own gratification, only their own power. It is not difficult to imagine a different country, one where elected leaders considered themselves public servants, and one where it does not seem unreasonable that the voters – nominally, those politicians’ boss – might want to know where they’ve been. This is not some great fantasy of a utopian model of self-governance. But for those of us here in the sclerotic and collapsing United States, it is apparently out of reach.
Oh, young Ms. Donegan, you write too well and insightfully for one of your years, and...for one who is American. (?) Are you really? You're a Guardian U.S. columnist, but were you birthed and swam your entire life among us turds in the toilet bowl of the The Toilet Nation? You read as too normal to be "wretched refuse".
Public Occurrences July 15, 2026
“Self-defense does not include indiscriminately bombing homes."
Representative Joaquin Castro, Democrat of Texas.
No, it does not. You do not have to be a lawyer to understand the distinction between self-defense and retribution. But "if that's as far as Israel is allowed to go, then I have no use for international law," said my best Jewish friend, even though a career-long prosecutor.
Almost Half of House Democrats Vote to End Aid to Israel
The measure failed, but the level of support among Democrats exposed a stark shift in the party away from backing the Jewish state.
The measure...sought to cut all $3.3 billion in military and humanitarian aid to Israel...
👏👏🙌🥳
5:17 pm:
Trump Leans Toward Expanding U.S. Military Operations in IranWhile preferring diplomacy, Trump was briefed this week on options, including use of ground troops and bombing Pickaxe Mountain
WASHINGTON—President Trump is leaning toward expanding U.S. military operations in Iran after days of briefings from top aides, U.S. officials said. Options include stepping up airstrikes, sending ground forces to seize Iranian islands near the Strait of Hormuz and bombing a fortified site that could be used for covert nuclear work.
Trump hosted a Situation Room meeting Tuesday evening to discuss the potential seizure of Kharg Island and other territory along the Strait of Hormuz using U.S. troops...
Tuesday, July 14, 2026
Public Occurrences July 14, 2026
Trump retreat over Hormuz toll suggests he is struggling to end Iran War
BBC
Well, he already has, according to him. Thirty-eight times per CNN (via Hunter Biden).
Trumpie is going to be the first anthropoid to win the Nobel Peace Prize 39 times in one year.
Donald Trump walks back proposed 20% Strait of Hormuz fee Google News Aggregate
$113,300,000,300
US attacks Iran and Tehran retaliates across the Middle East, threatening a return to all-out war
AP
5:36 pm:
Trump notifies Congress of new war against Iran
😂
Hunter Biden: Note
Monday, July 13, 2026
For all the world to see, this is who the Ukrainian people are
July 8, 2026:
Every day for 1,595 days (and counting), at exactly 9:00 am, Ukriane comes to a stop. For one minute, Ukrainians, whatever they are doing, stop in place for a moment of silence. Every day since February 24, 2022.
June 27:
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