12: ... the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz each day...compared with 130 before the war.
18: ...American military personnel killed so far in the war.
This was March 11. The Iran War was eleven (my favorite number) days old:
Now look at this. Look at the date.
Trump's ("four to six weeks") War of Choice Now at Six Months, Goals Unachieved, Iran Emboldened but Vulnerable, U.S. Weaker
In the runup to the war, the Islamic Republic appeared more vulnerable than at any point since Saddam Hussein’s Iraq invaded in 1980.
Iran’s currency had cratered, setting off some of the biggest anti-government protests in its history, which were brutally suppressed in January, with thousands killed. Israel and the U.S. had pounded its military and nuclear sites during a 12-day war the previous summer, and its militant allies had been throttled in the wars that followed Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023, attack out of Gaza.
But the tide changed shortly after the initial U.S. and Israeli strikes, as Iran’s leaders were quickly replaced and its people — sheltering from the war — ignored exhortations from the attackers to rise up again.
Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz...
Iran is now determined to exert permanent control over the strait, to use it to ward off future attacks and secure other concessions, while giving no ground on its disputed nuclear program. It’s a risky gamble, especially as the U.S. tightens its blockade and vows new sanctions on Iran’s already battered economy.
“Tehran’s danger is confusing its ability to survive with victory and demanding more than its leverage can deliver"...
APPE-EW! I STUNK today. 15%, less than a random walk down Medicine Street. I knew it, too! As I was doing the test with Ana I knew I was bombing. I MISSED THE FIRST 16 IN A ROW! Embarrassing. BUT...Ana's is the only important score and she got 55%.
*I was wrong. I ONLY GOT TEN PERCENT RIGHT!
Jim Sciutto (https://x.com/jimsciutto)
@jimsciutto (https://x.com/jimsciutto)
New: In a phone call with me after U.S.-Canada trade negotiations collapsed, President Trump suggested the US had added conditions late during talks.
“That sounds like me,” Trump responded, when asked about Canadian officials' assertion about US late-stage demands.
It's common strategy for predator-businesspeople:
1) Big Fish sets an artificial deadline for Little Fish to comply or be eaten;
2) Little Fish negotiates feverishly in good faith, obeying Big Fish's artificial deadline;
3) Big Fish announces "DEAL!" but for "details";
4) At 11th hour Big Fish makes new demands, betting that Little Fish will fall prey to momentum and bite off the new demands to not miss out on the whole feast;
5) Little Fish is eaten by Big Fish.
The first four steps in this common predator strategy occurred in the Toilet Nation-True North trade negotiations. But at step five the Little Fish, recognizing the strategy, swam away, not without a bite out of his tail, and not without a nibble of his own out of bloated Big Fish. Now Big Fish has set a new artificial deadline, conveniently after (switching life form metaphors from fish to fowl) Big Fish, already a Lame Duck, could suffer a Quack Attack in November), with a bigger, much bigger, chomp out of Little Fish as punishment for further disobediance. To switch fowl metaphors, it is now a game of Chicken. Will Big Fish-Lame Duck become a TACO consumed by Little Fish?
Before the Latin Cafe this morning:
Me, to friend, 7:17 am:
i know this is short notice. if you want to break your fast on my dime, i'm going to latin unless you choose roasters toasters.
Him:
Oh man wish I could just got out of the pool
How about Thursday or Friday
Me:
no prob buddy! so glad to hear you're swimming in morning.
with my weirdo constitution i can't plan ahead, the expectation/obligation burden crushes me. i have to be spontaneous. another time when i have no food in the house.😂
Him:
😂😂😂😂
I had breakfast at the Latin Cafe this morning.
There are only two sit-down restaurants on 41st Street, a major, major artery, on Miami Beach. There were more, a Chinese restaurant right across from me, and a delightful French cafe, but all but two have mostly been turned into BANKS. There are banks of every race, color and creed on 41st Street now.The other extant restaurant is Roasters Toasters, formerly Arnie and Richies, a Jewish-style deli. Roasters Toasters certainly has the better food and I prefer it for a good, hearty meal, but it is more upscale (as upscale as a deli can be). The Latin is a People's restaurant. I took this photo this morning because early as it was there are always working class people there just before their shift. The far corner, where two police officers are seated, is usually the Otis Elevator peoples' table. There are usually four to six employees there. In the near table are three other employees of the City of Miami Beach, sanitation department as I recall. The Latin is inexpensive and I can get Cuban coffee there. I go there maybe once a week and have been going there for years and years.
This is what has changed, to me (maybe not in reality) in Prime Minister Carney's approach. This is what I meant in my initial reaction to Carney's walk-away from the talks, that it was a "human" reaction. To a gray banker, the other side's "attitude" should not matter. Do you know how many times in court I got insulted by the other lawyer, or I insulted the other lawyer? No, of course you don't know. The answer is "a lot". There are going to be personality conflicts. That should not influence you in whether the deal, or the plea offer, is objectively good, bad, acceptable. And Donald Trump is a serial winner of the Recent Assholes award. Seethe all you want about the 51st State, "artificial border", "Lake America", but don't let that influence you rationally. Do not condition a "return to the negotiating table" on Donald Fucking Trump or Howard Nutlick turning into Mr. Congeniality. Tain't gonna happen. If these assholes irritate you out of all rationality, can you not negotiate in writing? Why do negotiations have to be in person. Especially when the other side are All-Asshole.
"Change in attitude" is not a rational strategy. It's no strategy at all.
Hours after Trump’s new auto and steel tariffs Monday, the prime minister said Canada would return to the negotiating table if there’s a change in attitude from the American side.
“There is a mutually beneficial deal possible here,” he said in Lévis, Quebec.
But a path to a mutually beneficial deal is now more challenging, according to former trade officials, and it could be months before both sides are willing to reopen negotiations.
“I think the U.S. may just not be able to get back to the deal that was on the table last Friday, and that’s just something that both sides are going to have to contend with,” said a trade lobbyist, granted anonymity because they were not authorized to speak on record. “The president was still prepared to go forward with that deal, and then the Canadians rejected their best offer. I think that makes it really hard for the U.S. side.”
The consensus of econ. types is that the 50% tariffs of 12:01 Saturday will cost an estimated 90,000 Canadian jobs, mainly in the timber sector of the economy.
The consensus on the 50% automotive industry tariffs scheduled for Jan. 1 is that they will shut down the Canadian auto industry which will move to the U.S. where their factories and businesses can operate tariff free. The Toronto Star.
Carney, and others say that it was Trump's intent for the last year to "break" Canada in order to "own it," and that the New Year's tariffs were predictable. My judgment is that there is more truth in those statements than the other way around. However, if the 12:01 tariffs and the Jan. 1 tariffs were predicted then I would have expected a ready-made plan for the foreseen inevitable. I don't see that so far.
I trust Mark Carney's judgment. But the judgment of even the most sober and erudite can be wrong. That I can see, only the Energy Bombs can flip the tables on the Americans. But Alberta's Premier has said no way Jose to that. Other than the Energy Bombs, I don't see an effective Canadian plan.
Stephen Marche wrote today:
For nearly a decade, I was a columnist at Esquire magazine. During that time, one of the greatest discrepancies I noticed between Canadians and Americans — and Canadian and American men in particular — was in their basic idea of what earned respect. For Americans, the capacity to project power, the ability to make things happen and to win are the primary virtues. For Canadians, the defining virtue is toughness, the capacity to endure.
I take Mr. Marche at his word, although it is difficult. Is that regardless of level of suffering? A-bombs? tariffs? alike, same response, "We will endure"? Marche's characterization and contrast is anecdotal, not scientific. I don't know to what degree Marche is accurate but if totally accurate endurance of pain is not a strategy to mitigate pain. It seems to me that a government, if possible, should work single-mindedly to reduce pain on its citizens. Maybe I'm wrong. But I still don't like "the capacity to endure" as a strategy for an advanced empathetic nation under attack by a hostile foreign government. Imo, Prime Minister Carney should look to avoid pain for Canadians at almost all costs and to ameliorate unavoidable pain. I see suffering. Marche does too: "But we will suffer." I'm not Canadian but I always thought I was close enough. I didn't realize, if it was to be realized, that "the capacity to endure" "suffering" is Canadians' "defining virtue." A virtue it may be, I'll shelve that for argument's save, it is not a strategy. Inflicting reciprocal pain on Americans at least brings company to misery. I strongly lean towards the Energy Bomb.
Eight days after 11M. It's a phenomenon that has never occurred here before, not even close. It is redundant but polite and necessary to express thanks deeper than you can appreciated. If there is a God, and there is not, but I'm hedging my bets as an agnostic, by (S)he bless you for bringing this happiness to an aged Idiot blogger. I know almost none of you but I say sincerely, I love you.
Trump ups the Ante
The White House Felon says he is going to increase tariffs on cars, trucks and auto parts to 50% on January 1.
Back to you, Prime Minister Carney.