*

*Gamblers Anonymous update

On no credible intel whatsoever the odds at post time are:

Polly: Biscayne Bay 36%, Lake Mistake 28%, Broad Street 16%, San Fran Bay 14%

Kalshi: B.B. 35%, L.M. 29%, S.F. 17%, B.S. 14%.

The darts continue to be very "precise". "Accurate"? 🤷

July 17:

Gambling Anonymous update:

On no credible intel whatsoever the odds at post time are:

Polymarket Lake Mistake 29%, Biscayne Bay 25%, San Fran Bay 23%, Broad Steeet 19%.

Kalshi Lake Mistake 31%, Bisayne Bay 28%, San Fran Bay 23%, Broad Street 15%.

July 16, 11:56 pm:

I'm a believer in betting markets as an accurate predictor of the future...in some subjects. In a presidential horse race, for example, they are as accurate as survey research polling. In similar long lead time one v. one matchups in sports, for another: Ohio vs Michigan, "Knicks"-"Spurs" in the NBA Finals. In the NBA regular season on the other hand, the games coming every other day on average, the line is interesting but I would not bet on it, so to speak.

Now, in the NBA and on other subjects, you can bet on just about anything. "Props" bets, i.e. an individual player's stats for a game, are just one example of how exotic sports futures investing has become. Mindless too. What data inform a wager that Terry Rozier will score under 12 points in a game against New Orleans? You're an addict if you make props bets. Easily manipulated too. 

The markets on LeBron James' next team are mindless. There is no data to make an informed investment. It's all hunches, guesses, wishes, and fears. So right now Polymarket investors have Golden State a close second, at 33.6%, to Cleveland (34.2%). Over on Kalshi, the odds are 32% and 36%. Yeah, the polls in two of the last three presidential elections were similarly precise. "Precise" has a meaning in statistics: your data is closely clustered together, just not around the bulls eye. "Accuracy" is the statistical term for darts that land near the bulls eye. There is no meaningful data on Golden State and Cleveland; no meaningful data on Miami or Philadelphia. Yeah, it's a little interesting--in the absence of data, to see where people put their money, but this isn't a horse race, there is no "track record" that can be checked for any of these horses, and the only intel is basically limited to what Shams Charania puts out. For what it's worth, and I do think Shams is worth a lot, it's among Cleveland, Miami, and Philadelphia (that is alphabetical listing only). Don't tell the dudes gambling their lives away at Polymarket and Kalshi that.

Public Occurrences July 18, 2026

 No "Unconditional Surrender?"

How the US and Iran dragged each other back toward war 

AP

Right? That is a precisely correct headline. War usually requires at least one side to make a fundamental miscalculation. Miscalculation presupposes calculation as alternative and calculation is a rational process. Here, I won't say never, I'll say I never heard of both sides not calculating, of being irrational...Well, that's the Toilet Nation. Is Iran calculating? No. This is irrational on Iran's part too. Maybe this is a near-first and these two lobotomy patients will stumble into peace? Probably not.

The cornball-iest, most fun cat in the world

Sound on:

Public Occurrences July 17, 2026

Trump blames Canada for wildfire smoke, says he will add cost to tariffs

OTTAWA, July 17 (Reuters) - President Donald ‌Trump on Friday blamed Canada for wildfire smoke spreading across the United States and said he would add the "incalculable cost" of dealing with the pollution to existing tariffs on Canadian goods.

"We are holding Canada responsible for the fact ⁠that they are not properly maintaining their Forests ... and the United States is being unnecessarily invaded by filthy, polluted, and unhealthy air," he ​said in a Truth Social post.

"This is Willful Negligence, and becoming a yearly occurrence, costing the United States Billions of Dollars, which cost of ​this pollution must of necessity be added to the TARIFFS Canada is currently paying."

Reuters

4:50 pm:

Good day! The undersigned Idiot Blogger was a total lazy bones today. Now to the public occurrences...

US and Iran escalate strikes across Mideast; bridges and a water plant hit

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — The United States and Iran escalated their attacks across the Middle East on Friday, trading strikes aimed at infrastructure and military targets as their battle over the Strait of Hormuz intensified.

The U.S. expanded its attacks against Iran by hitting more bridges and energy sites and collapsing a tower at a key Iranian port...In response, Iran launched missiles into U.S.-allied nations in the Mideast, including Qatar, a mediator in the war, and Kuwait, where one of the desert nation’s water desalination plants was damaged.

AP

That is a win for the Toilet Nation. Those are strategic sites hit in Iran. Their response was to throw a temper tantrum and pick on the little kids. That's not wise nor strategic nor a winning move. Iran is irrational here.

It's Friday Night...

 

Jaylen-Optionality Trade

Since I mentioned that, Shams Charania reported yesterday the one consideration that makes this all make more sense now: Jaylen Brown is eligible this summer, right now, for a 2-year contract extension at $70M per. Shams: 

"They knew they were not gonna offer (that)... and that would have caused a reaction. This could have gotten ugly."

NESN

Which is Team Joy?* # **

**Update.  I neglected to mention one factor working against Golden State: playing in the Western Conference. You notice that all of the Lebron contenders except Peaceniks are in the Least: Lake Mistake, Biscayne Bay, Broad Street, Ice?  LeBron said after his "Lakers" were eliminated by OKC that they "out-talented us". La-La Lake-Lake finished fourth this season just past. Peaceniks finished TENTH, yeah, just like the "Heat" in the Least, with a WORSE RECORD, 37-45, than the "Heat". Didn't make the playoffs from the play-in, just like Miami. This off-season Peaceniks have done bupkus. The "Heat" got Giannis Antetokounmpo! That's MORE than nothing. Phila. was nowhere on LeBron's radar until Beans traded Jaylen Brown to them for "optionality". 

There is no way in haill that 41-year old LeBron James can lift Peaceniks, with co-stars Steph Curry (38) and Draymond Green (36) into contention with OKC and San Antonio. Frigging NO WAY. So while it is probably true that LeBron is not ring-chasing, he also does not want to slip from irrelevance into retirement.

End of ** update.

#Updated Update: 

Steve Kerr to a fan today: "We need LeBron." Kerr: "Oh we got him." Kerr is a good-humored, humorous guy and as you can hear the fan and those with him started laughing. Kerr being funny? Idk.

https://www.instagram.com/reel/Da1YkYnOWxT/

And then...

Fullcourtpass
@Fullcourtpass

There is a sense LeBron James could make his decision after NBA summer league is over, per @JakeLFischer 

The final day is this Sunday (7/19)

*Update. That was well-reasoned wasn't it? Thank you. But Shams said, after I posted this shit, that it's down to Lake Mistake, Biscayne Bay, and...Broad Street. Golden Pond is NOT among the three finalists. Apologize for any inconvenience.

LeBron James' agent has stated that James' next team will be chosen on where he can find the most happiness to end his career.

1) LBJ is a basketball billionaire. He does not care who has the most money to offer him.

2) LBJ has won three rings. Winning a fourth is not his top priority. 

3) Happiness/Joy = less pressure + lifestyle

Criteria one rules out Miami.

Criteria two rules out Cleveland.

Criteria three rules out Miami (ALWAYS pressure in "Heat Culture")... 

Jimmy Butler left Miami to get "joy" back

JBIII: "anywhere but Miami"

...and Cleveland (they have to win a title).

So the consensus top contender, Cleveland, is ruled out. The up-until-recently second top contender, Miami, is ruled out. On Rich Paul's stated criteria, which team is going to get LeBron? 

"Heat" wound too tight; Golden State Joy

Golden State Joy

Where did JB III go to get his "joy back"?

Golden State Joy

Golden State.

                                                  (Miami is 11% on Kalshi.)

Of Tails Wagging Dogs

Паблік Океренсес», 16 липня 2026 року

Just another turd in the Toilet Nation toilet bowl, sharing the criteria for diagnosis, "American": mentally ill, violent, white, stupid.

AP Exclusive: ICE officer in Maine shooting has history of violent behavior, family and records say

AUGUSTA, Maine (AP) — The Immigration and Customs Enforcement officer who shot a Colombian man in Maine this week is an Army veteran who has struggled with serious mental health issues since early childhood and never should have been given a badge and gun to patrol American streets, several of his close relatives told The Associated Press.

David Brouillette has a history of terrifying and violent behavior, according to those relatives. They accuse him of attacking women in his life over the years, and one shared a voicemail with the AP from last winter in which he told her that he thought someone should slit her throat.


8:58 am:

Uh Oh: Street Protests in Ukraine as Zelensky Forces Out Young, Popular Face Of Ukraine, Drone Innovator Fedorov

Mykhailo Fedorov, 35, was the Minister of Defense who thrilled Ukrainians and impressed the world with his spectacularly successful drone warfare innovations and soldier-consumer armament procurement program. 

Those made him popular with the soldiers but also the face of the opposition to Zelensky and unpopular among generals. Telling personal aides he could no longer manage the conflicts, Zelensky fired him.

😳

 

Well, I, er...Okay, okay! I did it a few times--WORE SOME SHIRTS THAT WAS ALL! WE DID NOT HAVE A RELATIONSHIP! I do NOT now nor did I EVER have a relationship with Mr. Lauren OR his sponsorships. I am "FAMILIAR, but (DECIDEDLY) NOT INTERESTED."

"...for those of us here in the sclerotic and collapsing United States...

The Mitch McConnell mystery is solved. But it doesn't look good for America

The senator is alive, a key requirement to maintain one’s job in the US Senate

lol

Like any good proof-of-life photo, it featured that day’s newspaper. After a nearly month-long disappearance, when it was clear that he had been rushed to the hospital but not clear why or in what condition, Mitch McConnell broke his silence, as they say in the tabloids, by releasing a photograph of himself sitting upright in a hospital bed. 

...

One almost has to feel gratitude to Lindsey Graham, the South Carolina senator, who had the decency to die out in the open, without inflicting a mystery on the public. In McConnell’s case, the circumstances bordered on absurd. Think of it as Schroedinger’s Republican senator: for a while, sealed in his box of secrecy, the former Senate majority leader was both alive and dead.

Excellent, excellent, excellent. Oh, such good writing.

Now that mystery has been resolved. But the episode reflects a grim reality of US politics:...American leaders are so old that it is plausible that they could drop dead at any moment, and so unaccountable that it’s not clear anyone would bother to tell us if they did.

Oh my goodness. lol.

Think, for a moment, of the peculiarities of Mitch McConnell’s job, which he has now occupied for 41 years. He is among the most powerful men in the country...If you’re anything like me, your own job probably involves much less privilege and much less power, and you spend your days doing things that might be more honorable but are undoubtedly of less consequence. Now ask yourself  [I love that]: could you, with your lesser powers and lesser responsibilities, simply disappear from your job for four weeks without notice or explanation? And when you re-emerged from this abandonment, do you think you could claim that you are entitled to remain in that job, even if you can’t perform it, by the simple virtue of being technically alive?

My jelly belly is shaking, this is so good.

The entitlement is staggering, and so is the reality that McConnell is not even the worst example of what is a thoroughly bipartisan phenomenon. A weak and senescent Dianne Feinstein...Joe Biden was so addled and confused...Chuck Grassley, a sitting Republican senator from Iowa, is 92... And of course, there’s Donald Trump: never the sharpest tool in the shed, the president... has devoted himself less to policy...than to the kind of idle vanity projects that might serve to distract a retiree, like pool beautification and home remodeling.

😂

...What is offensive about the gerontocracy is how transparently it reveals the rot at the core of the American political system, how plainly it demonstrates that our elected leaders do not serve the people, but serve only their own gratification, only their own power. It is not difficult to imagine a different country, one where elected leaders considered themselves public servants, and one where it does not seem unreasonable that the voters – nominally, those politicians’ boss – might want to know where they’ve been. This is not some great fantasy of a utopian model of self-governance. But for those of us here in the sclerotic and collapsing United States, it is apparently out of reach.

Moira Donegan, The Guardian

Oh, young Ms. Donegan, you write too well and insightfully for one of your years, and...for one who is American. (?) Are you really? You're a Guardian U.S. columnist, but were you birthed and swam your entire life among us turds in the toilet bowl of the The Toilet Nation? You read as too normal to be "wretched refuse".

Public Occurrences July 15, 2026

“Self-defense does not include indiscriminately bombing homes."

Representative Joaquin Castro, Democrat of Texas. 

No, it does not. You do not have to be a lawyer to understand the distinction between self-defense and retribution. But "if that's as far as Israel is allowed to go, then I have no use for international law," said my best Jewish friend, even though a career-long prosecutor.

Almost Half of House Democrats Vote to End Aid to Israel

The measure failed, but the level of support among Democrats exposed a stark shift in the party away from backing the Jewish state.

The measure...sought to cut all $3.3 billion in military and humanitarian aid to Israel...

NYT

👏👏🙌🥳

5:17 pm:

Trump Leans Toward Expanding U.S. Military Operations in Iran

While preferring diplomacy, Trump was briefed this week on options, including use of ground troops and bombing Pickaxe Mountain

WASHINGTON—President Trump is leaning toward expanding U.S. military operations in Iran after days of briefings from top aides, U.S. officials said. Options include stepping up airstrikes, sending ground forces to seize Iranian islands near the Strait of Hormuz and bombing a fortified site that could be used for covert nuclear work.

Trump hosted a Situation Room meeting Tuesday evening to discuss the potential seizure of Kharg Island and other territory along the Strait of Hormuz using U.S. troops...

Wally

I'm thinking his Nobel hopes are are on life support.

Public Occurrences July 14, 2026

Trump retreat over Hormuz toll suggests he is struggling to end Iran War

BBC
Well, he already has, according to him. Thirty-eight times per CNN (via Hunter Biden).

Trumpie is going to be the first anthropoid to win the Nobel Peace Prize 39 times in one year.

Donald Trump walks back proposed 20% Strait of Hormuz fee Google News Aggregate

Didn't even know the Florida Felon proposed that. It was a moronic idea and he's a moron, so it would have been plausible. He resumed the blockade of Iranian ports.

$113,300,000,300

https://iran-cost-ticker.com/

US attacks Iran and Tehran retaliates across the Middle East, threatening a return to all-out war

AP

5:36 pm:

Trump notifies Congress of new war against Iran

😂

Politico

Hunter Biden: Note

"He's so great", she said in a whisper to a colleague as I stood at the podium next to her.

Ball

 

🙄

That's my grandchild!

Good-lookin' kid, huh? 😄

USMLE Today

I understand the language of God better than I do the language of the god Aesculapius.

For all the world to see, this is who the Ukrainian people are

July 8, 2026:

Every day for 1,595 days (and counting), at exactly 9:00 am, Ukriane comes to a stop. For one minute, Ukrainians, whatever they are doing, stop in place for a moment of silence. Every day since February 24, 2022.

June 27:

Is the odious World Cup over?

The Good Morning Shimmy

I sheathed the knife...

...and she jumped back up and...

...yeah, knocked my Adderall bottle down. YOU'RE THE HAZARD, MISSY!

YIKES!

 

BE CAREFUL WITH THAT KNIFE!!!!!

Public Occurrences July 12, 2026

Twenty-Seven Killed in Bangkok Bar Fire

The BBC describes video of flames pouring out of the bar and people running "two of whom are on fire." Ugh.

Tits for Tats: Iran, Toilet Nation, Still at it Sunday

11:07 am:

Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-South-Carolina-Must-Be-Destroyed, Dead at 71

Soo Russia

Eleven in her bed

Eleven puts herself to bed when she sees me going to bed.

In the morning, I haven't been able to capture it in a photo yet, but when I turn the lights on and open the blinds and say "HI HONEY!" she writhes in delight like a baby does when her parents come to get her out of the crib. 

We communicate seamlessly and know each other exceedingly well. It is a special relationship. 

Good night darling. Good night Publoccians. 🫶

Public Occurrences July 11, 2026

Aspiring to Regional Domination, Iran Is Ready to Escalate Over Hormuz

Tehran sees itself as a winner in the war that would establish a new Pax Iranica in the Middle East

DUBAI—For the Iranian regime, keeping a chokehold over the Strait of Hormuz has turned out to be more important than the tens of billions of dollars in sanctions relief from the Trump administration.

That is because Tehran is playing a long game. Iranian officials believe the country has finally emerged as a regional hegemon, after the U.S. and Israel failed to achieve their main goals in the war they unleashed in February. And, as long as Tehran cements this new status by securing permanent arrangements to control the vital waterway—and dominating the Persian Gulf economies along with it—then the rest, including American sanctions relief, will eventually follow.

Wally

That is a longgg view, Iran. I can't see it from here.

Iran Republican Guard Navy: Strait of Hormuz Closed until Further Notice

There clearly is a power struggle going on in Iran.

3:21 pm:

Democratic Congressman Ro Khanna Detained by Armed Israelis on West Bank

LAS VEGAS -- National Basketball Players Association executive director David Kelly criticized the NBA's salary cap and luxury tax system on Friday, arguing that the newly implemented "second apron" must be "softened" or removed.

"We are not fans of the second apron," Kelly said. "We did not propose the second apron. We should have done a better job of fighting back against the second apron. In the future, we will have a much more unified union, and we will do a better job of fighting back. ... We're seeing [the apron system] decimate teams and force decisions to be made that are not basketball decisions." [a reference to the Jaylen Brown trade]

July 10, 2026 ESPN

Chuck Cooperstein, Las Vegas Mavericks play-by-play guy, July 3, 2026, replying to Kyle Kuzma:

Has anyone ever asked why Tamika Tremaglio, who negotiated this deal as the executive director of @TheNBPA stepped down immediately afterward. No sports union head ever leaves after negotiating only one such deal.

Kyle Kuzma, Milwaukee Male Deer, July 3, 2026:

 ...the @TheNBPA has to operate with elite business acumen, elite negotiating strategy, and real foresight.

The owners and the league walk into these meetings with killers that continue to run circles around us time and time again with elite lawyers, economists, cap experts, media strategists, and long term business operators. Players deserve a PA that is just as sharp, just as prepared, and just as aggressive about protecting our upside.

Too often, it feels like players are informed after the fact instead of being truly educated and empowered before decisions are made. That cannot continue.

The next CBA [2030] is a do or die moment for us as players. It's only going to get worse for us. We need transparency, accountability, and a serious re evaluation of who is representing us and how they are representing us.

Almost invariably I side with the working man in labor disputes, even when the working man is making $50M per. I side with them here. The current CBA went into effect on July 1, 2023. It is a disaster for players and team managers. It killed free agency. The second apron essentially is a hard cap. The CBA was a complex tome that confused even experienced team experts (e.g. Andy Elisburg leading to Terry Rozier trade), and as David Kelly refers, it's effects are retrospective. Players who signed contracts before or around the CBA's effective date, i.e. before the full implications of "aprons", etc. were understood, are almost untradeable, their contracts essentially void. (Jaylen Brown's contract was signed July 26, 2023. Brad Stevens has less of an excuse for Jayson Tatum's contract, July 1, 2024.)

How in hell did this come about? The undersigned had an ominous sense that the NBPA was going to get rolled when Michelle Roberts stepped down after seven years as executive director of the National Basketball Players Association (NBPA) in 2021. At that time NBA Commissioner Adam Silver was obsessed with the new CBA. The NBA's future was held up until the new CBA was reached. Adam is a brilliant man and was at this time an experienced Commissioner. The CBA was his top priority of and he was laser-focused on it. Adam also represents the team owners. He has all of the elite legal talent and experts that Kyle Kuzma mentions at his disposal. Sitting across from Adam and his go-gos was Tamika Tremaglio, who succeeded Roberts in 2021 and stepped into the negotiations with no experience, and as I sensed, she, the union, and the players got rolled. Tremaglio negotiated the CBA that went into effect July 1, 2023 and stepped down half-way through her four-year term "in a surprise move" in November, 2023. The CBA was controversial from the start. The union "should have done a better job of fighting back against the second apron", as David Kelly states. The NBPA was not "unified" under the tutelage of Tremaglio and the undersigned has no doubt, but also no facts specifically, that Tremaglio was encouraged by the players "to pursue other opportunities". Her legacy is aprons, first and second, the latter of which effectively is a hard cap, the decimation of free agency, and "optionality".

Here We Go (Again)!

Windy: LBJ Has "Done Deal" with team other than Cleveland

“I’m hearing stuff in another cities too. I’m not gonna say who, but I had somebody on the phone with me today that I consider a good source who was swearing it’s a done deal in another city a couple hours ago,” Windhorst reported during an appearance on ESPN Cleveland. “I am being very, very cautious. Right now it’s too scattered. I also know how LeBron has operated, they’ve kept their circle very tight.

“I’m hearing rumors all day long. And all of them make some level of sense, and all of them make some level of nonsense. I’m just telling you, Cleveland is not the only place where there are rumors.”

Google AI

Following reports that LeBron James will leave the Los Angeles Lakers, the Miami Heat have surged to the top of next team prediction markets. The Cleveland Cavaliers closely follow as top suitors. [1, 2]

yellow by Googs, black by unsigned. THAT IS NOT SO: THERE IS NO SURGE TO THE TOP OF THE TWO MOST-CITED PREDICTION MARKETS, POLYMARKET AND KALSHI:

Polymarket at 12:31 am: Cleveland 37.6% Miami 26.4%

Kalshi at 12:32 am: Cleveland 40% Miami 28%

Brady Hawk
@BradyHawk305

If you told me a month ago Giannis Antetokounmpo would be on the Miami Heat, they have a real shot at LeBron James, and Bam Adebayo punched Tyler Herro….. 

I’d tell you to seek help

9:57 PM · Jul 10, 202659.9KViews