Tuesday, November 03, 2026
Democrats!
Abdul El-Sayed is not going to win Michigan by 11 points (final NYT/Siena poll).
El-Sayed led Haley Stevens by 10.2 points in the final primary polls. He won by 1%. It is the greatest polling error in my memory and I cannot account for why the polls missed so badly.
In RCP's six polls (of varying quality) taken Oct. 26 and later, El-Sayed leads by an average of 5.83%. None of these most recent polls account for any substantial effect of Stevens "despicable betrayal" by endorsing MAGA Mike Rogers.
It says here that we are deluding ourselves that Stevens will have no effect in tomorrow's voting. But there are those of us who believe that it helps El-Sayed. My fellow true blues, that is not reasonable. It hurts is reasonable.
I am left haunted by the unaccountable, extreme polling error in the primary, the nearest analog to the polling in the general election. El-Sayed's support could be over-stated by five ponts and he would be Senator-Elect. But if his support is overstated by 6%, MAGA Mike is the Senator-elect.
This race, imho, is going to be tighter than a twm-year old's asshole. El-Sayad will win or lose by 1%-2%. Close does not count in elections. We should not care if El-Sayad wins by one vote.
Hedging is the forecaster's cowardly streak. I am no braveheart but I will predict a winner: El-Sayed by 1%-2%. The outcome could so easily be the opposite but the polls in the midterms in the last few cycles have been accurate. ...I just can't explain those primary polls.
So I have chosen: El-Sayed close, by 1%-2%. Just my judgment by available light. I wear my nickname "Mr. Wrong, Always Certain" with a bow to reality. This is what I truly believe and I've given it enough thought to be satisfied that I can't do any more.
Good night, if I was religious I would pray for El-Sayed to win, but I don't do that prayer crap. Good luck Abdul, I am with you. But Democrats, steel yourself against a closer, much closer outcome than in our hopes. I love you all Blues.
Monday, November 02, 2026
"Threats, Gaffes and Men’s Posteriors: Trump’s Talk Gets Wilder"
•"I don’t do this with men very often,” Mr. Trump said at a rally (https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/transcript/donald-trump-speech-midterm-political-rally-youngstown-ohio-october-12-2026/) with Senator Jon Husted, Republican of Ohio, on Oct. 12. “I started examining his body because I didn’t know he was a great athlete. And I looked and I watched up and down. I looked at his ass.”
•Five days later, he repeated his appreciation of Mr. Husted’s backside. “I examined his ass,” Mr. Trump said at a rally in Kentucky (https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/transcript/donald-trump-speech-midterm-political-rally-highland-heights-kentucky-october-17-2026/#99). “I never did that with, no, I never did that with a man before.”
•Three days later in North Carolina (https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/transcript/donald-trump-speech-midterm-political-rally-greenville-north-carolina-october-20-2026/#33), he praised Mr. Husted’s derrière again. “His ass is, it’s like a pile of muscle,” he said.
•In Chillicothe (https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/transcript/donald-trump-speech-midterm-political-rally-chillicothe-ohio-october-28-2026/#99), he did it again: “I started by looking at his ass, and it was strong as hell.”
Mr. Husted is not the only object of Mr. Trump’s manly approval. Among the others:
•Senator Tim Scott (https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/transcript/donald-trump-speech-midterm-political-rally-pendleton-south-carolina-october-21-2026/#99), Republican of South Carolina: “As much as I can fall in love with a man, which isn’t that much, I fall in love with him, and his name happens to be Tim Scott.”
•Representative Mike Collins (https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/transcript/donald-trump-speech-midterm-political-rally-dalton-georgia-october-16-2026/#2), Republican of Georgia: “Mike Collins is a good-looking man. And he’s all man.”
•The spouse of Senator Darline Graham (https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/transcript/donald-trump-speech-midterm-political-rally-pendleton-south-carolina-october-21-2026/#99), the other South Carolina Republican: “He’s a good-looking husband.”
•Robert F. Kennedy Jr., (https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/transcript/donald-trump-speech-midterm-political-rally-fort-myers-florida-october-23-2026/#154) the health and human services secretary: “He’s got the body of a 30-year-old.”
Seriously
Look at this photo from today, nyt:
And the same voluminous, bulky compression wrap around his lead ankle is on his trailing leg.
Public Occurrences November 2, 2026
Trump Delivers a Closing Midterm Message. Mostly About Landscaping.
On the eve of the election, the president held forth in great detail on columns, drain pipes and granite at the newly refilled Reflecting Pool.
...so quickly that it did not even ask California for its views first...
Wipeout
THE FINAL 2026 RATINGS: Democrats Favored to Capture House, Senate, and Gubernatorial Majorities
Senate: 6 flips to D, 53 Seat Majority
The Senate
Suggesting that Democrats enter Election Day as narrow favorites to flip Senate seats in Kansas, which has the longest streak of electing Republican senators in the country, and Texas, which has the longest streak of electing Republicans in all statewide races, just seems, on a gut level, insane. And perhaps it is.
But the horrible electoral environment for Republicans paired with the astoundingly weak candidacies of Sen. Roger Marshall (R-KS) and state Attorney General Ken Paxton (R-TX), plus the impressive showings from pastor Adam Hamilton (D) and state Rep. James Talarico (D), makes this a possibility. We have been stunned at how many people we respect think Democrats will win both of these races (this is both from our own discussions and also what we have gleaned from others’ reporting).
...
While we had moved toward favoring Democrats in the Senate over the past several weeks, we have more Leans Democratic races than we expected we would (as recently as six days ago, we wrote that we thought we would land at a more modest 51 or 52). It wouldn’t take much—some understatement of Republicans in polls combined with strong GOP Election Day turnout—for Republicans to save some of these races, and even their majority. But the bulk of the evidence we have points to the Democrats in the Senate, and not just by a single seat.
House: 24 flips to D; 239 Seat Majority
Governors
The last time Democrats held a majority of the nation’s governorships was during a stretch in the late aughts, beginning with the blue wave of 2006, when they captured 28 states, and ending with the red wave of 2010, which left them with just 20. Our ratings suggest they could get to a majority once again, and then some.
AND I WOULD BE REMISS...
I think I have a chance.
GOOD MORNINGA AIPAC🖕
GOOD MORNINGA HALEY🖕
GOOD MORNINGA JASON🖕
IT'S THE FIRST DAY OF THE END OF YOUR LIVES AND I JUST WANTED TO SAY GOOD MORNINGA🖕
The Final Polls Show a Blue Surge. Can We Trust Them?
New Times/Siena surveys show Democrats leading in all the key battlegrounds that will decide Senate control.
Maine and Michigan
Ohio, Iowa and Alaska
The first was in 2018. Our final polls showed Democrats gaining across the board, including in races that had barely been on the radar. Democrats surged by double digits in just a few weeks to build startling leads over longtime Republican incumbents in districts that supported Mr. Trump in the previous election. Democrats even led in Georgia’s Sixth, which had badly disappointed them in a special election one year earlier when Jon Ossoff lost.
Weighting is not a panacea. That’s because nonresponse bias can run much deeper than what can be observed and corrected in the data. A poll might be weighted to have the right number of Trump supporters but still have the wrong kind of Trump supporters — and particularly the kind of Trump supporter who might be voting Democratic.
- Michigan: D+16 (today’s actual published result is D+11) [Bullshit]
- Alaska: D+6 (actual D+2)
- Iowa: D+4 (actual D+1)
- Kansas: D+10 (actual D+5) [Bullshit]
- Maine: D+5 (actual D+6)
- Ohio: D+11 (actual D+5) [Bullshit]
- Texas: D+9 (actual D+7) [Total fucking bullshit and horsecrap]
Sunday, November 01, 2026
I LOVE WHEN ANYBODY SAYS FUCKFUCKFUCK IN ANGER AND HATRED🤣*UPDATE!
XMAS TIME... ENGAGE!
@chrisvrennashairdo.bsky.social
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It's fucking insane. ABSOLUTELY INSANE, that they don't fucking get how much everyone just wants fucking boring governance, that gets fucking shit. Just get shit done, help people, and don't make a fucking mess.
2:03 AM · Oct 31, 2026
I will be SO impressed if this Chris is a woman. but I don't think they are. :(
*UPDATE SHE IS A SHE!!!
I LOVE WHEN XXs SAY F*CK!
I have watched this like ten (fucking) times. ELEVEN (ooh Eleven) FUCKS! I LOVE IT!
I LOVE YOU JJFJ!!!!!!!
Public Occurrences November 1, 2026
Why Haley Stevens Can’t Stop Talking About Abdul El-Sayed
In a frank interview, she described her disappointment and also said she was considering converting to Judaism. Her fiancé had thoughts, too.
Oct. 31 nytimes
1:38 pm:
Rep. Haley Stevens Breaks With El-Sayed, Dems, Endorses MAGA Mike Rogers Two Days Before Michigan Vote
Gen Z-led Cost-of-Living Protests Turn Violent in Germany
This follows close on the heels of similar unrest in France.



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