For twelve straight years the Miami "Heat" have been an average 44-38 during the NBA regular season. They were 43-39 last season.
The current roster, therefore, is nearly identical in terms of talent to those of the previous eleven seasons. It finished 17 games behind the Eastern Conference leader.
It is impossible for a 43-39 roster to make up 17 games and jump eight other teams with better records and rosters through organic growth and better health in one season. With the exception of the Jimmy Butler years, 601 Biscayne has tried that approach for the other seven years. And failed.
The foregoing is apodictic. What follows is not.
It is impossible for one "whale" to make up 17 games and pass eight other better teams in one season.
Pat Riley hasn't landed a "whale" in 16 years, since 2010. And then he landed two, LeBron and Chris Bosh. Riley's most recent whaling excursion was after Giannis Antetokounmpo. He failed. The chalk is that he will try again this summer. I don't believe that Giannis wants to come to Miami, but let's say he does. I don't believe that the "Heat" will make that great leap up the East that incentives whalers after subtracting the players traded to Beer to get Antetokounmpo. Free agency is dead in the NBA. The draft, unless you beat prohibitive odds, is not an option. Whales don't fall to 13th. The only way to harpoon a whale is by trading bait fish. This is not to overvalue Miami's roster! It is dreck. You can get replacement dreck in the G League. This is to say that one whale + 14 minnows and medium-sized fish will not float the boat. Has not, demonstrably, for twelve straight seasons.
I would stair-step. 601 Biscayne won't because 601 Biscayne doesn't stair-step (yes, it's circular). The fan base, so long sold on great-grandfather Riley's whaling nous, will not be happy with the years-long timetable that stair-stepping takes. Whatevs. In the current NBA I would use a minnow as bait to lure a slightly bigger fish, use that fish to get a bigger, keep climbing that ladder step-by-step until you have a roster to which a whale can be attached that can float your boat to Larry O'Brien Island. If you can hook a beautiful blue marlin like Jimmy Butler with your minnows, mazel tov. But if you are so fortunate, don't think you're done. Keep climbing those steps. Jimmy Butler won as many NBA championships as the undersigned idiot blogger has won. 601 Biscayne should have stair-stepped for twelve years rather than hunt Moby Dick. But they didn't. They refused to "sell high", they gladly let some pretty good catches (most recently Caleb Martin, Gabe Vincent, Max Strus) go without compensation! They let their minnows and bigger catches go until they ran themselves to death or broke pack and went elsewhere for nothing.
I have no idea what bigger fish may be lured by this "Heat" roster. No clue if there is another Jimmy Butler swimming out there who can be had for Josh Richardson. But 601 Biscayne should know.
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