On July 21, the date that President Biden withdrew, the RCP national average was Trump +3.1. Today it is Trump +1.7.

The last Pa. poll (PPP) exclusively pre-withdrawal (7/10-7/11) Trump was +6. The latest poll (Fox, 7/22-24), Trump v Harris is a tie.

Wisconsin pre-withdrawal, current

Trump +1, Trump +1

Michigan:

Trump +2, Tie

Georgia:

Trump +10, Trump +2

Arizona:

Trump +6, Trump +5

Nevada:

Trump +10-NA

North Carolina:

No poll since mid-February (Trump +9)

 

Kamala has improved on Biden's standing nationally and in every state except Wisconsin (margin unchanged) where there is current polling.

She has not chosen a vice presidential candidate yet. The Democratic national convention is Aug. 19-22. I would expect her to get a bump in the home state of the veep nominee and nationally after the convention.