I first-guessed him. A punt never entered my mind. I gave 10% consideration to a 61-yard game-winning FG but that seemed a tough ask and a miss would have given DET the ball at the 44. I thought, and wrote that the play was to go for it. Granted picking up a first on 4th and 14 was low-percentage but it seemed McVay went by analytics and discounted the game flow. They were moving at will on the last two drives. On the penultimate, a 15-yard run, a 9-yard pass, an 11-yard pass, a 12-yard run, 22-yard pass, ending in a FG.
On their last possession, a 35-yard pass, a 15-yard pass, the devastating penalty that took them out of FG range and set up 4th and 14 and the Decision. The way I looked at it the “Rams” had gotten an average of 15.3 yards on 7 plays. They needed 14 for the 1st and that would have put them at the “Lions” 30 1st down and in FG range.
What McVay did was reasonable by the book but ignored the red-hot, big-play “Rams” O. He gave up the initiative and gave it to Detroit and counted on his defense to get the ball back in time. Not unreasonable! but he sacrificed control over the situation and there was only 4:15 left in the game.
In the event the “Lions” got two HUGE first downs to put the game away. The “Rams” D didn’t stop them. What McVay did was reasonable but went against the game flow.
I thought then that a coach who really sensed the game would have seized the moment and gone for it. My decision may not have worked but McVay’s was proven not to have worked and on his decision the game was lost.
