🕒 Last update: 12:15 p.m., Monday, August 26: There hasn’t been much high-leverage polling since the DNC, so I’m going to be transparent that this is a relatively boring update. Harris leads by 4.1 points nationally, which would be a strong position if it holds up, but the model is hedging against this with its convention bounce adjustment.
Why he is including Washington, Montana, I cannot fathom. Of course I cannot get inside his bronze head. The electoral map today according to his "forecast":