She has now not only made up ground in public polls in the swing states in her campaign for president, but has now actually taken narrow leads in three critical states that would put her at just enough electoral votes to win the White House, according to polling averages.
NPR’s analysis now has all seven of the most closely watched swing states as toss-ups, moving all of the Sun Belt states from Lean Republican previously. NPR’s analysis in this map is not based strictly on polling, but also on historical trends and conversations with campaigns and party strategists.
For the state polling, NPR's analysis is based on an average of surveys aggregated by FiveThirtyEight and The Hill/DDHQ. If a candidate has a lead of 1 percentage point or more in an average of the two, then the state is marked as red or blue. If the margin is tighter than 1 point, then it is marked as a pure Toss-Up.
Harris has now taken a consistent, though narrow lead in the Blue Wall states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. She holds an average lead of about 3 points in Wisconsin and Michigan, but only 1 point in Pennsylvania, where both campaigns are spending the most.
