🕒 Last update: 4 p.m., Monday, September 9: We continue to see mediocre data for Kamala Harris, like a new Pew national poll with a very large sample size that showed the race tied nationally — which would probably translate to a loss for Harris in the Electoral College. Although the model’s convention bounce adjustment will get phased out as we see more post-Labor Day and post-debate data, things are going in the wrong direction for her even without the adjustment. Her lead in our national polling average is down to 2.3 points after having peaked at 4.3 points on Aug. 23.
[4.3 would deliver 270+ EVs and the presidency for Kamala. 2.3 would almost certainly result in 270 for trumpie and the presidency.]
Bronzer has Pa. Kamala +0.3, Mi. Kamala +1.5. trumpie has flipped Ga. into the trumpie column, also +0.2. NC is trumpie +1.2, Wi. Kamala +2.2; Az trumpie +1.8, Nv. Kamala +0.5; Va. Kamala +4.6; NH Kamala +6.2; Mn Kamala +7; NE-2 Kamala +4.9.
Bronze EC map based on above. By Bronze's computations Kamala wins the presidency with 276 EVs.
