Could there be a Kamala Harris landslide in November? The data scientist who correctly called the last election is betting yes

Miller’s approach vastly differs from the most of political prognostications by relying not on polls, but the prices established by Americans wagering their own dollars on the candidates they reckon are most likely to prevail. “Political betting sites are the best at predicting the wisdom of the crowd,” he told Fortune. 

He states that while polls tell you about the past, the odds on the betting sites map the future. ...

...Miller reckons that a better question than “Tell us which candidate you’ll vote for?” is “Which candidate do you expect to win?” And while the pollsters don’t pose that query, it’s just how the bettors are making a market.

[I agree that that is the better question, and agree that betting markets are better forecasters than polls.]

...

For the 2024 presidential race, Miller is once again relying on Predictit. He praises the site for “having a more stable group of investors” than the populations screened by pollsters. ...

...

It was the onstage battle in Philadelphia that wrecked the 78-year old former POTUS, according to the Miller numbers. 

 

[I agree that the race turned there. "Wrecked", no.]

 

Within a day after the candidates left the podium, Harris had jumped to exactly over 400 electoral votes. The Harris endorsement from Taylor Swift, secured the day of the debate, probably helped sink Trump’s chances, according to Miller. Since then, Harris has maintained for 400-plus vote total.

[Get the fuck outta here. No matter how brilliant you are or how clever your methodology, you lose all credibility when you predict nonsense like that.]

If the situation persists, Trump faces an absolute rout. “It would be somewhere between the defeats of Barry Goldwater by Lyndon Johnson in 1964, and Bob Dole by Bill Clinton in 1996,” says Miller. “We’re talking about a blowout where Harris gets over 400 electoral votes and wins Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and every other swing state.”

 

[The problem with eggheads is that they take themselves so seriously to the point of reductio ad absurdum point. Has he even looked at an Electoral College Map? Does he know that even if Kamala wins all ten swings she ends up with 319 EVs?. I'm going to create a map that gets Kamala "over 400 electoral votes" and post it in the next post.]

...“It’s gone from a drastic landslide in Trump’s direction to a drastic landslide for Harris,” he marvels. ...

[No it has not and you have a bone in your brain.]

As a coda, he recalls a slogan the Johnson campaign used to bash Goldwater: “In your gut you know he’s nuts.” 

 

["Weird" is 2024's equivalent of nuts and I agree that that '64 slogan fits trumpie-Couch at and since the debate and has left them with a weirdo ceiling of ~46%]

Miller’s markets-based analysis posits that the people betting their own money are right in predicting that by the time the candidates left the stage on September 10, millions of voters likely to back Donald Trump abandoned the ex-President, starting the shock waves that could cause an avalanche for Harris that as of now, few see building.

 

[That reasonably could be. The race has turned demonstrably.]