The Actual Electoral Map Is Three States
If the former president wins the East Coast trio of Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia, he will go back to the White House.
PHILADELPHIA — There are really only three states that will decide the presidential election: Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia.
If Vice President Kamala Harris can’t carry Pennsylvania, her only hope is on a Southern strategy. Harris must win either Georgia or North Carolina. She has no other path to the White House.
Wait a minute now. That is true so far as it goes. The path for a D in 2020 and 2024 is the Blue Wall, Pa., Mi., Wi. with Pa. the keystone. However. But. The Blue Wall path assumes that NH, Va., Mn., and NM go blue also. That really isn't a Blue Wall anymore. You're dipping into far North New England, into Tidewater, into the Mid-South, the True North and into the SW. Those other states will go blue too, but without them there is no path for Kamala. (I don't know because I haven't read that far what Polly does with Az.)
The point is, Polly is unintentionally showing how the electoral map has expanded for kamala. NC is up for grabs? It's gone for the R in nine of the last ten presidential elections and the one time it went blue was by 14,000 votes! Ga.? Republican eight of ten!
If you look at the electoral map as the undersigned did a couple of nights ago, there are 216 electoral votes in play. Kamala has to win 69 of them, trumpie has to win 138. Kamala in an enviable position and trumpie in dire straits with far less money. In short there are multiple paths for Kamala where trumpie, as the sub-lede to this article states, has to win Pa., NC, and Ga.
This isn’t to say the other four battlegrounds — Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada and Arizona — aren’t important. If Harris loses Pennsylvania, which her aides acknowledge is a highly challenging state, she’d still need to pick up one of the two Western states as well as one of the two Southern states to win — so long as she carries Michigan and Wisconsin.
That's tangled. The paths are multiple. Yes, she could win carrying the traditional Blue wall, Pa., Mi., Wi. (along with Mn.) OR Mi., Wi. Mn., Nv., Az. and Ga. or NC, and so on. trumpie has to win Pa. and hold NC and Ga. OR if he lose Pa. he would have to win NC, Ga., and one of Mi., Mn. or Az. Okay, I've read Az. now. Az. is in play this year. But, it has gone blue dos times in the last ten prez elections. Az., NC, and Ga. should be locks for trumpie! That they are really, most sincerely in play is demonstration of Kamala's multiple branching paths and trumpie's one-way street.
Yet none of those other four battlegrounds are relevant if Trump first blocks her in Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina.
Correct! And if she "blocks" him in Pa., NC, and Ga. he would have to win Mi., Wi., Mn., Nv., and either Az. or Va.
It’s the most obvious route for the former president and a reminder of the advantage the Electoral College can confer on a Republican.
Yes, It's "the most obvious route", but I disagree per above that in 2024 there is an Electoral College advantage for trumpie. He really only has that one route where Kamala has a few.
