TRUTH AND CONSEQUENCES
i have proposed general war with islam. the logic of it to me is clear, the altenatives lacking. and although i have previously acknowledged that the consequences obviously would be dire i think it is important morally to spell them out in detail. writing is slower than thinking, it encourages contemplation and one should not propose something like this without being made to think about, to truly contemplate, the consequences.
to summarize my proposal. first we would tell the governments of egypt, saudi arabia and pakistan that they had some discrete time frame to kill the terrorists in their countries or we would. at the end of that period we would bomb iraq, iran, syria, libya, lebanon, and egypt, saudi arabia and pakistan if the latter three had not accomplished the task. the aim of this bombing would not be to wound or punish but to destroy and rebuild. after the military action was over we would rebuild these countries as we did japan and germany after world war II, including reform of their political systems.
the first and foremost consequence to consider of course is the loss of life. i believe in the quick use of overwhelming military force, first to minimize loss of life, second, because, as in japan, such a strike has an important stun effect that can shorten the hostilities, third to maximize the effectiveness of the operation, fourth to blunt the firestorm of protest at home and abroad that would ensue.
obviously the most effective way of doing all of the above is with nuclear weapons. but to cross the nuclear threshhold is a very dangerous step. as a civilian i do not know what conventional alternatives we have available. the "daisy cutters" used in the afghan conflict were, by all accounts devestating, but in the end in my view they were ineffective. our mission was to kill osama bin laden and al queda. we have certainly not done the latter. they have simply moved across the border into pakistan, with or without bin laden which has greatly complicated our mission. ever mindful of the horror of nuclear weapons it must still be said that our enemy would not have escaped a nuclear attack. i would want to use conventional weapons but off the experience of the afghan and gulf wars i believe nuclear weapons would in the end have to be used.
our nuclear capability today is infinitely more powerful than it was in wwII but it can also be more precise. my goal would be to bring down the governments, take out the military installations, destroy the transportation and communication networks--railroads, bridges, airports, telephone and television capabilities, secure the oil fields where applicable, in short to make the countries safe for occupation by american troops, all the while trying to minimize the loss of life. how many would be killed? hundreds of thousands died in the attacks on japan. simply to arrive at some number let's assume 100,000 per country. that's 700,000 without counting pakistan. the entire 500,000 people in the lawless western region would be killed, plus say another 100,000 for the attack on islamabad. that's 1,300,000 immediate casualties conservatively. how many others would die of radiation sickness, starvation and disease? double it maybe. 2,600,000. make it a rough 3,00,000. three million men, women and children dead. sickening.
besides the casualties, what would happen in the immediate aftermath. i propose such an attack, without warning, for maximum psychological effect on the enemy. but the psychological effect would be as great at home and among our allies. the president would be thought to have gone mad. impeachment proceedings would be begun. the country is completely unprepared for this. sneakiness goes against the american psyche. hitting first is what every school child is taught not to do. if the military end of the operation were to end quickly as i plan then the protests would not interfere with the operation. it would be over before any serious opposition could be massed. i think violence at home would be minimized.
our allies would not be so lucky though. there would be massive protests, perhaps threatening to bring down governments, say of france. our embassies would be attacked and some deaths would ensue. every european country has a sizable muslim population. these populations would revolt in the most violent way.
there might be breaks in diplomatic relations as the governments react. the u.n. would condemn us. the president might be indicted by the war crimes tribunal. perhaps there would be trade sanctions by the e.u. but in the end those would all be over a fait accompli. it would be time to move on, with helping out in the rebuilding, etc. and our explanation would be heard. it would incite some, placate others but in the end the world would get back to living.
a perhaps permanent casualty would be our moral standing in the world. we would not be seen as liberators as we were after wwII. we would be seen as murderers, perhaps forever. our position as honest brokers for the world would be ended. we would be isolated. we would be seen as a country whose policy is "might makes right," of establishing a pax americana over the world. and to some extent that would be right. we should never allow a hostile gov't or people to acquire wmd after this.
how sneaky could we be in carrying out this entire operation. granted we have the resources to do the bombing right now. but what of the occupation of the countries. it is estimated that 250,000 troops would be needed for an invasion of iraq. would it be less after a nuclear attack. our role would presumably be more as policemen than an invading army but to police an entire country would require lots of people. and we would be doing this for 8 countries. again, just to come up with a number, take 250,000 per country. that's 2 million troops. we used 500,000 in the gulf war. we would need to reinstitute the draft and there would be dodging and rioting. for that reason alone i might not get done.
