Wednesday, November 03, 2021

CDC Forecasts Nov. 3+4

 Cases














Apparent leveling between weeks ending Nov. 24 and Dec. 1. The first red circle, corresponding to the week ending Nov. 10 equates to 66,599 forecast new cases/day; the second, for week ending Nov. 17, to 62,983; the third, week ending Nov. 24, 58,312/day, and the fourth, Dec. 1, 57,571. My 20/400 eyes deceived me. No leveling, a consistent (forecast) drop of 9k/day from Nov. 10 through Dec. 1. Woo hoo!

Deaths














No leveling there. Nice steady, sharp drop. For the week ending Nov. 10, CDC forecasts 1,182 deaths/day; for the second, Nov. 17, 1,099; for Thanksgiving week, 996, and for Dec. 4, 934 deaths/day. So, a (forecast) decline of ~250 deaths/day. Good.

73.8% of all Americans 12+ now with at least one shot. 

Over 46,000,000 have contracted COVID-19 and almost 747,000 have been killed by it. When you're away from it for a while and go back and look at the raw numbers it is shocking, surreal, isn't it? On Nov. 3, 2019 coronavirus and COVID-19 were terms completely unknown to Americans. If we had a crystal ball then and could see two years into the future, and saw this--that more Americans would be sickened by this thing than the entire population of California, the largest state, and that more would be killed than live in Seattle, the 20th largest city in the country--we (I anyway, and I think if you're honest, you, too) would have asked seriously the question, "Did the country survive or did it end?"