Why no cyber attacks? We don't know. “This is
mostly business as normal as to the levels of Russian targeting. The normal level is actually never
zero." But those attempts have not markedly increased in the
past several days, as Russia has invaded Ukraine. However, Microsoft stopped one.
Last Wednesday, a few hours before Russian tanks began rolling into Ukraine, alarms went off inside Microsoft’s Threat Intelligence Center, warning of a never-before-seen piece of “wiper” malware that appeared aimed at the country’s government ministries and financial institutions.
Within three hours, Microsoft threw itself into the middle of a ground war in Europe — from 5,500 miles away. The threat center, north of Seattle, had been on high alert, and it quickly picked apart the malware, named it “FoxBlade” and notified Ukraine’s top cyberdefense authority. Within three hours, Microsoft’s virus detection systems had been updated to block the code, which erases — “wipes” — data on computers in a network.
Then Tom Burt, the senior Microsoft executive who oversees the company’s effort to counter major cyberattacks, contacted Anne Neuberger, the White House’s deputy national security adviser for cyber- and emerging technologies. Ms. Neuberger asked if Microsoft would consider sharing details of the code with the Baltics, Poland and other European nations, out of fear that the malware would spread beyond Ukraine’s borders, crippling the military alliance or hitting West European banks.
Before midnight in Washington, Ms. Neuberger had made introductions — and Microsoft had begun playing the role that Ford Motor Company did in World War II, when the company converted automobile production lines to make Sherman tanks.
... Even if American intelligence agencies picked up on the kind of crippling cyberattacks that someone — presumably Russian intelligence agencies or hackers — threw at Ukraine’s government, they do not have the infrastructure to move that fast to block them.
That is pathetic by our intelligence agencies. Thank you, Microsoft!
“We are a company and not a government or a country,” Brad Smith, Microsoft’s president, noted in a blog post issued by the company on Monday, describing the threats it was seeing. But the role it is playing, he made clear, is not a neutral one. He wrote about “constant and close coordination” with the Ukrainian government, as well as federal officials, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and the European Union.
...
Company executives, some newly armed with security clearances, are joining secure calls to hear an array of briefings organized by the National Security Agency and United States Cyber Command, along with British authorities, among others. But much of the actionable intelligence is being found by companies like Microsoft and Google, who can see what is flowing across their vast networks.
[Cyber] attacks have given Russia a reputation as one of the most aggressive, and skilled, cyberpowers. But the surprise of recent days is that Russia’s activity in that realm has been more muted than expected, researchers said.
Most early tabletop exercises about a Russian invasion started with overwhelming cyberattacks, taking out the internet in Ukraine and perhaps the power grid. So far, that hasn’t happened.
Shane Huntley, the director of Google’s threat analysis group: “This is mostly business as normal as to the levels of Russian targeting.”
“The normal level is actually never zero,” he said. But those attempts have not markedly increased in the past several days, as Russia has invaded Ukraine.
“We have seen some Russian activity targeting Ukraine; it just hasn’t been the big sets,” said Ben Read, a director at the security firm Mandiant.
It is not clear to American or European officials why Russia held off.
It could be that they tried but defenses were stronger than they anticipated, or that the Russians wanted to reduce the risk of attacking civilian infrastructure, so that a puppet government they installed would not struggle to rule the country.
This is where the previous post from Reuters becomes so useful. Russia clearly today has changed from "artillery mode" to air attacks. Cyber moves through the air.
But American officials said a massive cyberattack by Russia on Ukraine — or beyond, in retaliation for the economic and technology sanctions imposed by the United States and Europe — is hardly off the table. Some speculate that just as Moscow steps up its indiscriminate bombing, it will seek to cause as much economic disruption as it can muster.
I would join to "speculate" that. Why is that even "speculation"?
U.S. and European sanctions are biting harder than expected. [Sen. Mark] Warner said that Russia could respond “with either direct cyberattacks against NATO countries or, more likely, in effect unleashing all of the Russian cybercriminals on ransomware attacks at a massive level that still allows them some deniability of responsibility.”
Russian ransomware criminal groups conducted a devastating series of attacks in the U.S. last year against hospitals, a meat-processing company and most notably, the company that operates gasoline pipelines along the East Coast....
But President Biden has stepped up his warnings to Russia against any sort of cyberattack on the United States.
“If Russia pursues cyberattacks against our companies, our critical infrastructure, we are prepared to respond,” Mr. Biden said on Thursday.
It
was the third time Mr. Biden had issued such a warning since winning
the election...any Russian attack on the U.S. seems like it would
be a reckless escalation...
