Friday, May 26, 2023

G5: Joe Vardon, The Athletic

Bam Adebayo is buckling under Celtics pressure. Heat need to fix this, and other problems, by Game 6

[Agree. First “Heat” play, Bam turnover]

The Miami Heat find themselves in the uncomfortable position of needing to make serious adjustments to avoid unmitigated disaster in the Eastern Conference finals.

…the Boston Celtics weren’t all that competitive. They are now, after beating Miami 110-97 in Game 5, having fully committed to Derrick White...

...a smaller lineup that has made the Celtics much quicker with better spacing on offense and a much more disruptive defense.

[Vardon is right. This was a major, brilliant move by JoeMaz to go away from the Two Bigs of iii and The Coach to small. green white and minnies collapsed on Bam and harried him into a turnover on the game's first play. Erik did not counter.]

It’s the Heat’s turn to make changes, probably to the lineup and definitely to how they’re playing on offense. Thirty-two turnovers in the last two games isn’t going to cut it.

“They jammed us up several times in the paint with quick hands, strip-downs, things of that nature,” Miami coach Erik Spoelstra said. “We have to shore that up. That’s two games in a row of that.”

[I don't know why it took Spo two games. He had a wildly effective counter to Beans' Two Bigs G1-3 but when Beans went small in G4 he started Kevin in both halves and again in G5.]

Ten of those turnovers have come from center Bam Adebayo, whom the Celtics have committed to bothering by collapsing on him in the lane. They use Marcus Smart or White to sink down from the perimeter and apply the extra pressure, and the Heat have been too slow to counter.

The counter to the Celtics’ defense can be any number of tactics, and probably more than one. Adebayo could go into his room quicker after he catches the ball, before a second defender can get to him. He can catch the ball at different places on the court, or even bring it up as an initiator – something he’s done off and on throughout his career. Or he can also pass it out to the perimeter, but that would depend in part on the movement of his teammates. If they’re stagnant and watching Adebayo struggle, he may not see them in time.

[Now that Vardon mentions that, the "Heat" O did have a stand-around look in the G4 that I watched. The emphasis was on spacing with Heaters standing on five points of a star, the middle--and beyond--wide open. It was a weird look.]

The Heat have been outscored by 44 points in the last two games with Butler on the court.  

[Whoa! That is unreal!]

After a blistering start to this series for Butler, he also has seen more double teams and hasn’t been able to get to his spots on offense with the same command we are used to seeing from him in the playoffs.

[That is something the casters repeatedly urged on JoeMaz in G1-3]

Miami didn’t need much from him in a blowout win in Game 3. But in that game is where the Celtics eventually got around to defending Butler with more help, and he hasn’t recovered. He took 21 shots in Game 4 and made just nine, and 10 shots in Game 5 is simply not enough.

[Those are meaningful stats that underpin the double-team point "And he hasn't recovered." Powerful observation. Jimmy won't take a bad shot so if it isn't there, as it won't be with doubles, he has to pass, like Bam when mini greens collapse on him, which both Heaters are capable of, and the effectiveness of that depends on offensive movement by the other four Heaters to illuminate the open man in the gap in the defense caused by the doubles--and on the open Heater's ability to make the basket. What I saw in G4 was stagnant offensive sets by Miami.]

Playing Lowry and Kevin Love together as starters proved problematic on defense – the Celtics sprinted out of the gate in the first quarter…

[Yes, it has. I blogged in real time during G4 that Spo quickly yanked Kevin after like 5 mins of play time.]

With the Celtics having committed to playing White with the starters and reducing Robert Williams III’s minutes, it may be time for Spoelstra to go away from Love all together and start Martin – with perhaps more minutes for Haywood if this has become a series for quicker wings.

[Again the altogether proper emphasis on JoeMaz' move away from Two Bigs to smalls and Erik Spoelstra's too slow counters that have now cost us two games. JOEMAZ SUPERSTAR!]

But if Vincent (sprained left ankle) can play in Game 6, it at least in theory would restore order to the method in which the Heat were operating when things were easier.

[Whale...Gabe played into the 4Q of the G4 rout.]

“We’ll see, we’ll see who is available, see if Gabe is available. I can’t answer that right now,” said Spoelstra, when asked if he needed to make a permanent lineup change. “But it’s always good when a guy (Haywood) comes in and plays some productive minutes and sees some good things happen. But we’ll see.”

[He doesn't sound confident Gabe will play in G6.]

The Celtics’ offense is flying high and bombing 3s at a rate much closer to the regular season, when they were the league’s second-most prolific team from deep. 

[YES! And we elide over that crucial point and the key to Miami's identity, D-FENCE, at our peril. Why, how, have Beans gotten so many good, open looks on 3's in G's 4-5???]

the Heat weren’t exactly making it tough on any of the Celtics’ better offensive players after enjoying great success there through three games. 

[So, we weren't playing great defense on the perimeter, Boston just wasn't hitting. I take that to be Vardon's point. Weird because in G1 or G2, I forget, Spo was mic'd up and told the team "The only way they beat us is if they make 3's."]

Miami is still employing a zone at times to try and slow the game down and junk up Boston’s rhythm. The Celtics have obviously found ways around it in the last two games, 

[A zone should HELP on the perimeter. That's the way you beat a good-shooting team: station three guys on the arc...Oh, but if you're not playing man, you're playing an area on the court and the snipers are necessarily going to be at some little distance away. With Beans' snipers any distance afforded is fatal when they are on target.]

but the Heat are using an occasional zone 

[Repetition: "at times", "occasional". There is a whole lot between zone and man. There are a lot of variations: matchup zone, box-and-one, there are so many variations.]

because they don’t think they can win playing man for 48 minutes.

[An obvious reversion to the narrative of the talent disparity. I agree that atomizing a team to its individuals Boston has more talent. This isn't tennis singles, though. To this point it has been proven beyond all doubt in these playoffs that Miami has been a vastly superior team to all that they have played.]

“We stopped playing defense halfway because we didn’t make shots that we want to make,” Butler said. “But that’s easily correctable.”

With the series at 3-2, and Game 6 to be played in Miami, now is the time for the Heat to be making those corrections.

[That is the end of the article and Vardon ends it on precisely the right note. Spoelstra must make corrections.]