PAC Man seems to be hedging the bet he placed on PAC survival just last night. It's now no better than a tossup.
The future of a 108-year-old college athletic conference could be determined in the next 24 hours as the Pac-12’s existential crisis reaches its tipping point.
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But how will it end?
If the proposal carries satisfactory revenue and media partners, the schools are expected to plow forward together for the remainder of the decade, perhaps with replacements for the three outgoing members, USC, UCLA and Colorado.
If Kliavkoff is unable to secure a media deal that satisfies the presidents, the conference as we know it would cease to exist.
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The Pac-12’s current deal, which began in 2012-13, expires next summer and pays an average of $20.8 million per school over the term ["It's $19.7M per team..."]. The benchmark for the new agreement is approximately $31 million, which would mirror the deal signed by the Big 12 last fall.
In addition to the valuation level, the current Pac-12 schools are anxious to see which media partners are involved. While there could be a streaming component (Amazon or Apple), the presidents are believed to desire a strong presence on linear television (ESPN) ["...and perhaps now 100% streaming on Apple."].
Neither the valuation or the media partners in the next contract cycle was viewed as a challenge for the conference until USC and UCLA opted to leave the Pac-12 for membership in the Big Ten starting next summer.
With the loss of its top football (USC) and basketball (UCLA) brands and the massive L.A. media market, the conference entered an existential crisis that could have remained unresolved well into August.
But Colorado’s departure to the Big 12, announced last week, expedited Kliavkoff’s timeline for presenting the presidents with a contract offer.
Will it compare favorably with the Big 12’s figure? [Not if the earlier report is true.]
How deeply will it interlock the Pac-12 with the sports streaming giants, Apple and Amazon? [100% per Swaim Show!]
To what extent will ESPN and other linear networks be involved? [Not at all! ditto]
Resolution should come this week, with the future of the conference in the balance.
Jon Wilner was asked by a reader of his "Hotline" whether he felt "deceived" by his sources in the PAC. "Not at all", he answered concisely and then went on to explain inconcisely. He has been deceived if the Swaim Show report is at all accurate. It will be the end of the conference.
