🕒 Last update: 2 p.m., Wednesday, September 4: The model’s convention bounce adjustment is one thing — and something you’re welcome to debate — but the fact is that most polls we’ve seen over the past week are coming in below our current polling averages for Kamala Harris. (Our polling averages don’t make any convention adjustments — those come at a later stage of the model.)
For instance, the latest YouGov weekly poll (Harris +2 nationally) or this one [44.7% of participants supported Trump, the former president, 43.5% backed Harris] from a high-quality pollster in Michigan (Trump +1). This batch of CNN polls was better for Harris — but not in Pennsylvania, where CNN showed a tie even though the poll went into the field the day after the DNC ended in what should have been the post-convention afterglow period for Harris.
As a result, the forecast is still in toss-up range, but Trump’s chances of winning are his highest since July 30. And the chance of an Electoral College-popular vote split working against Harris has risen to almost 18 percent.
Nathan today, Sept. 4, nationally: Kamala 48.9% trumpie 45.5%.
Nathan's swings (spoiler: we're still getting killed in Montana :()
EC Map per Nathan Sept 4:
