Not that 37-45 is the goal, just for comparison. After 30 games last season we were 16-14. After the Jimmy Butler trade we promptly lost four straight and six of seven. In March we lost ten straight. Then we won six straight.
To equal last season's 37-45 again this season, we would go 22-30 the rest of the way. I think we'll do at least that. We won two games in the play-in to make the 'loffs, which earned us a best of seven with Sensitive City. Spolestra has mentioned repeatedly how high and invigorated the team was after their two play-in games, how they expected to compete, really compete, push Cleveland. Instead we lost four games by a combined 122 points, an average loss in each game of 30.5 points.
The Cleveland series caused a paradigm shift in Erik Spoelstra. We did not compete, we could not compete playing our standard bump-and-grind, pick-and-roll style, the style of Pat Riley from 1995 to 2025, 30 years of that style. So Spo imported Noah LaRoche from Memphis and installed the Wheel offense. 0-6 in the pre-season, but 14-7 out of the gate in the regular. The Association "adjusted", they stymied this "system." 1-9 followed.
What's realistic? Well, define the +'s and -'s. I think our eleven, going on twelve, year average of 44-38 is realistic. I think we'll get back to winning slightly more than we lose. I think we'll be closer to 44-38 than to 37-45. And that, in the embarrassing East may be enough to make the playoffs without going through the play-in. But, to state the obvious, no contender, not even in the embarrassing Eastern Conference, can lose 9 of 10 games, not at any stretch of the season. Someone will prove me a liar, but I say this with complete conviction: the "Heat" are not capable of competing at the very top of even this minor league conference.
We have to define the +'s and -'s rather than take a grand historical approach. There are so many negatives with this team right now, itemized as best I could piece them together in an earlier post, and I don't see +'s right now. The "Heat" are a mess. But I have to consider a more general problem first, the lack of caring "enough", Spo's words. Words I never thought I would hear Spoelstra say. There is a lack of player leadership. That starts with Bam Adebayo. But I wonder at a comment I read last season when the JBIII for Andrew Wiggins, et al, trade was made. I just googled "andrew wiggins lack of competitiveness" because that is what I remember the criticism of Andrew to be. Google AI answer:
"The perception of Andrew Wiggins' "lack of competitiveness" has been a persistent narrative
throughout his NBA career...
Origins of the Narrative
"The criticism largely stems from his time with the Minnesota Timberwolves, where, despite averaging over 19 points per game in his first five seasons, the team consistently lost. Pundits and fans often cited his inconsistent motor, passive demeanor, and occasional defensive lapses as a lack of "killer instinct" or effort. As the number one overall pick with immense athletic potential, the unmet expectations fueled this narrative."
Andrew is described elsewhere as "shy" and introverted.
"Lack of...effort", you see that? "Effort" is not quite synonymous with not caring enough, but it's pretty close. There's not enough "will", another word Spoelstra used. When your care but not enough, you care less when you lose than you should; similarly you don't have the will to win when you should
Andrew is not a vocal, emotional leader, that is obvious, however you parse "effort" and "caring." We're not going to get leadership from Andrew.
We should be getting it from our captain, Bam. He has (to me), inexplicably, morphed into almost a scrub. We have no superstar, he is our most decorated, most consistent player, and he's our captain. If Bam wouldn't shake this, but he will, then you can talk about the Dead Heat.
I have to fault Erik Spoelstra, too, and this may be a first. The Cleveland Catastrophe concentrated his mind wonderfully, as being shot at sunrise concentrates the mind. But Spo, realizing that change was necessary, changed this franchise's post-1995 defensive identity to a tried and discarded system used in Memphis last season, one that got respected coach Taylor Jenkins fired. You gotta be careful changing your identity. "I'm going to cut off my testicles and get breast implants and become a woman." Careful there, hoss. You better be right, because it's hard to go back to being a man without a dick.
I think Spo learned the lessons of Cleveland too well. Spo seems not to believe that the "Heat" lack talent, it's just a matter of tinkering, and system whiz-bangs and we can compete with Oklahoma City for a title with...
No, actually we cannot. Why are the "Heat" 15-15? Why are they 44-38 every year for eleven straight years: We don't have the talent.
I think we will finish 44-38 or close thereto. We may reasonably avoid the play-in and finish in the top six. If we did, if we finished sixth, as the standings are now, we would play a first round playoff series against Beans. Friends and enemies, we could reasonably win that series! Not probably, but "reasonably could".
First Spoelstra has to get the team out of this mess in their heads and on the court and get some dubs. I'm pretty confident Spo can do that. The Golden Ring of 44-38 beckons.
