Saturday, October 25, 2014

Ebola: Craig Spencer.

The condition of New York City’s first Ebola patient, Dr. Craig Spencer, worsened* on Saturday, though he remained awake and communicative, health officials said.
...
Dr. Spencer, 33, was “entering the next and more serious phase of his illness, as anticipated with the appearance of gastrointestinal symptoms,” Ana Marengo, a spokeswoman for the city’s public hospital system, said in a statement. Dr. Spencer has been in isolation at Bellevue Hospital Center since Thursday, when he reported a 100.3 degree fever.
...
The statement was careful not to convey a sense of pessimism, and patients undergoing treatment can worsen before they recover.
...
Part of the usual course of the disease is the onset of diarrhea, which can cause an enormous loss of fluids and electrolytes, shut down the kidneys and disrupt the heart rhythm. The key to treating Ebola patients is supportive care, experts say, so that they can stay alive long enough to allow their immune systems to fight off the virus. That usually begins to happen two to three weeks into the illness.
-The New York Times.

Well, that is not good, is it? No. What I cannot tell from this story in the Times is if it is bad. Well, "worsened" is bad, isn't it? Yes. How bad? That's what I cannot tell. Is it "just" bad, i.e. inevitable and we got this not to worry don't get hysterical? Or is it, "We thought our treatment in this first phase would have kept him from this "next and more serious phase"? 

The New York Times is a quasi-official house organ of the United States government and you have to read the Times as palimpsest. This is a very "neutral" report, isn't it? Yes, it is. They have clearly gotten the message to tone it down, to not create "hysteria." But they reported it! That Dr. Spencer's condition "worsened." I think to make more sense of this report, to know how bad is this bad we would have to know if Nina Pham or Amber Vinson went through this "next and more serious phase" and I don't know that. Reading the Times as palimpsest, I would guess Pham and Vinson did not enter this more serious phase. I think the last-quoted paragraph about trying ro have the patient "stay alive long enough"--I that is real bad, I bet Pham and Vinson never got this bad. That's what I bet. But I lose bets.

UPDATED 1:06 am, UTC: "Officials said the changes were anticipated but didn’t characterize whether his condition was worsening."-Wall Street Journal.