According to Hopkins there have been 736 Deaths reported today. I want to show you this:
That's a grab off the JHU U.S. page. When you see it in miniature it is clear that we have made enormous progress since April. When you look at the big graphs you can lose site of the forest for the trees. It looks like a roller-coaster, doesn't it? You start off on the ground and just go about as straight up as it is possible to go--and at speed. You're pressed back against your seat by the thrust. You reach the top and the roller-coaster levels off to give you a chance to recover. And then the roller-coaster goes down, slow at first then picking up speed and more speed, not as fast or as steep as going up but you feel it as much because it looks like you're going to crash into the earth. You get butterflies in your stomach. Not much rest at the bottom before you start climbing again and now you're really nervous at how high and fast you're going but not to worry, not too high, not too fast, you dip and rise and bob like a cork on the ocean but you get the distinct feeling this isn't going to be a repeat of a Saturn V launch as at first, nor a seeming free fall as in the first descent and you're right, this is more like slalom skiing than soaring and free-falling and you have a bumpy little ride up in July and then an easy plateau into and through most of August, then a not fairly gentle drop into September and some mild up-and-down but more plateau than sustained up and down and then a gentle decline in the end of September, which is where we are now. Take out April and May and you would be inclined to buy another ticket and take the ride again. The most terror-inducing by far was that vertical lift off in mid-March to the first of April.
This is the NYT Cases graph. the line is the 7-day average. That's a scarier ride. A very steep (but not nearly vertical as with JHU's) climb from your starting point in mid-March to about April 1, then a rest plateau for two-three weeks, then a noticeable but fairly gentle drop to about June 1. But then a prolonged steep incline until about mid-July. "How high is this thing going to go?" you say to yourself and you get more terrified when it doesn't level off. From mid-June to mid-July you ride up and up and up. You level off in about the third week of July and now you start to drop, precipitously and gaining speed and maybe you want to tap out. Your descent lasts seemingly forever, from the last week in July through the entire month of August and the ride bottoms out in the first week in September. You reach for your safety harness to disengage and you are immediately thrust back against your seat for a steep but short climb again. You start to whimper. The ride's rise eases in the third week and the rise is gentle through the third week in September, where we are now. But you're still going up goddamn it and what goes up must come down in roller-coasters, maybe not in Trump Plagues. You are back at the elevation you were on August 22, more than a month ago with no end in sight.
You're frazzled and your frazzle is born out in the NYT 14-day changes:
You have been on a 22% increase in elevation in Cases and a minuscule 1% decline on the Death ride.
All thing considered, your're not buying another ticket to either of these rides.
Another way of looking at these graphs and numbers and lines from a human perspective. Good night.
