Monday, January 31, 2022

Thank you, Omicron

For the two weeks Jan. 17 through 30 cases (99.5% of which are O) are down a whopping 35%. Hospitalizations are also off 85. Deaths are up 28%. Since the death interval is ~four weeks that is sensible. Deaths are still rising because cases on December 30 were still rising. We are, though, getting nearer to the beginning of the O wave in the U.S., which began in mid-December. Deaths are going to keep going up for about two more weeks before starting to fall for good.

The seven-day (Jan. 24 through 30) averages tell a very similar story:

                                                                                  Cases:

On average 519,421 per day.

                                                                      Hospitalizations:
143,902/day.

Deaths:
"Very similar" because it looks like Deaths have begun their descent, doesn't it? Reporting artifact: Sunday and Monday are reporting lag days, the 30th was a Sunday, it is in fact lower by 48 than no lag-Saturday and Friday. Plausible that Deaths tonight, for today will be slightly lower. Average daily deaths over a week were 2,524 yesterday. Given the clear history of cases in the U.S. and in other countries, notably South Africa, it is unlikely that Deaths will reach the Trump peak of 3,342.peak. That is one hand clapping, and barely that. The responsibility for Omicron, and for Delta, is 100% on the Bidens.