I will say it again:
Sen. Raphael Warnock will crush Herschel Walker Tuesday
There, you have it in writing, again, and are free to beat me over the head with it if I am wrong. Now, define "crush": Okay, fair ask. >/=4 points. Maybe that doesn't sound crushing to you but in context, Warnock won the November election by 0.9%. I'm predicting 4x that.
So what I don't understand is the dearth of predictions--either way!--from the punditocracy. The most you get is that the runoff will be "close." Maybe ~4 is their definition of close? No, it's not. Some, looking at you, New York Times, even have "How Walker can still win" articles. The RCP average is Warnock +3.2 and RCP has been wrong so much this cycle they are doing a reverse impersonation of 538 in 2016. RCP projected three of the zero GOP Senate pickups and zero of the one POG pickup:
Their final average: Oz would win by 0.4%; toss up, but in the end, GOP Hold. Big John won by 4.5% It was not close. That is not close, 4.5 is crushing; RCP was not close, they were off by 4.9%. That is throwing-darts-and-missing-the-board-and-hitting-the-wall wrong.
RCP's final average in Georgia for November was Walker +1.4%. Warnock won by 0.9%. That's a significant error. 2.3% is being off significantly. (Georgia was one of the infamous three GOP Senate pickup projections.)
If you add RCP's November error rate to RCP's current runoff average Warnock wins by +5.4%. That is more crushing than my crushing projection.
The media are not doing basic reporting on this. They're not calling up people they trust in both camps and getting candid assessments. They're not on the ground talking to party officials, county chairs, etc. They're doing data analysis from their offices in the Times bldg, the Journal bldg (WSJ today has one of those maddening interactive blue-and-red-dots-dissolving,-resolving,-reforming graphs--I thought I was reading the Times.) Where's the beef, Wally? What does all of that hocus pocus mean to you as a political analyst? "Uh gee, I don't know. Pretty cool, though, right?" At one point in the text they said that Walker had an "opportunity" in the districts where Georgians voted for Kemp for governor but left their Senate choice blank. You think Herschel has an opportunity to get those R voters who for reasons unfathomable to you didn't vote in the Senate race in November at all to go to the polls again and vote in the Senate runoff for him. Like it could have been a mistake. "Whoops, I forgot to fill in my Senate box. Will do Tuesday!" You think there's a fair number of R's who did that such that it's a good opportunity for Herschel? Not that they were so embarrassed by the fool that they couldn't even with Republican conscience vote for him? Or that they reason that with the Party of God already controlling the Senate, "What's the point of voting in the runoff?" Or maybe you think Herschel's eloquence since November has shown them the light? You don't know anything beyond your resolving, dissolving lights, do you?
I don't mean to pick on just Wally. The Times is just as dull boy and I had to sift through all of that goddamned on-the-one-hand-on-the-other nonsense in Politico before I struck a nugget (GOP pollster: “It looks like Sen. Warnock is building up a substantial lead.”)
Publocc readers, you're going to have a big ol' club to bash me with, but this is the truth: The early voting is coming overwhelmingly from Party of God precincts; Sen. Warnock has 90% of the Black vote. He is swamping Herschel Walker, that is the truth. Things are so dire on whatever planet Herschel lives in a Texas suburb that he of the silver tongue isn't even talking much anymore. He knows! Even Herschel I-played-too-many-games-with-my-helmet-off Walker knows he's getting his clock cleaned agayne. They keep the media away from him. :o Literally, his campaign staff puts the pencils behind chain barricades to keep them from asking Walker, “Hey, how’s things looking Dawg?”, afraid that their candidate is going to break down and cry or break their pencils over their heads. They have no money compared to the Warnocks; POG’ers are blasting away on the air--they bought time on the SEC championship game (
Georgia vs LSU) to remind folks of the domestic abuse allegations against Walker the--while GOP'ers are silent as their candidate; Walker underperformed Brian Kemp by
203,000 votes in Nov. You know why, Wally? Because GOP voters were too ashamed to vote for Walker. They’re not going to vote for him Tuesday either.
And the national pundits won't venture predictions. I do! This is an easy one. You’re passing on a peep shot, pencils! See y'all Tuesday. Bring your clubs. I'll have mine.
