The former president leads Ron DeSantis among likely Iowa caucusgoers, 51% to 19%, with Nikki Haley at 16%.
Crossing the 50% threshold is why this is news. It means that there is no path for any challenger, even if all others dropped out and threw their weight behind one.
Trumpie’s lead has only grown in the year since campaigning began. This landmark also shows again the inverse relation in his support. The more negative there is surrounding him the more solid—and expanding—his support becomes. Would it work in reverse? Would the endorsement of Iowa’s governor, for example, soften or decrease his support? Would the endorsement of some figure anathema to his MAGA extremists, Mitt Romney say, hurt him? Not among GOP voters, I don’t think. There is nothing that can hurt Trumpie among Republicans.
“Everything that could happen has happened in this contest,”—J. Ann Selzer, Iowa Poll.
“Everything that could happen has happened in this contest,”—J. Ann Selzer, Iowa Poll.
Democrats need to forget about “understanding” much less converting MAGA extremists and the states, like Iowa, where they are a majority.
“With all the other candidates, it doesn’t matter. It doesn’t matter what they say, it doesn’t matter what they do. Because automatically, my vote is going to Trump no matter what,” said poll respondent Timothy Blackerby, 67, of Missouri Valley, Iowa.
“They can promise me a million dollars,” Blackerby added. “I tell them to keep it. And I would still vote for Trump.”
We already have. That’s why we don’t have caucuses in Iowa; why President Biden will not campaign there in the general; why the Democratic primary calendar was radically reconfigured. Trumpie has proved that he cannot get 50% of the general election vote. All we Dems have to do is leave Republicans alone to do their thing, nominate the one candidate who has proven he cannot get 50% of the general election vote and get out our vote in the swing states to ensure a replay of 2020, not 2016.
