Every national poll since DebateDebacle June 27:
How is a -3 average impossible? In Real Clear Politics no-tossup Electoral College map that -3% is on this date, July 19, a Trump clear and convincing, 325-213, but not a landslide. See here. The tossup map has Trump with 219 votes to Biden's 198. The most economical path for Biden to win in the EC would be to hold what he has and win tossups Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Virginia, Michigan, Minnesota, and New Hampshire, all of which Biden won in 2020. That would give him 271.
Look at 2020: Biden on this date, July 19, +8.6. He won by +4.5. Trump, the illegitimate incumbent, closed gap on Nov. 3 by 3.9%.
Look at 2016. HRC this date +2.7. She won by +2.1. Trump, closed gap on Nov. 8 by 0.6%.
You're saying there's a chance? Yes, there is a reasonable chance.
