The Standard For Change

Democrats chose Biden in the primaries when he was trailing Trump “consistent with” CNN’s poll results today. The primary voting is over. He has won the nomination. He is entitled to the votes of his delegates. That is to say, there is no democratic mechanism to now choose another candidate. The only way he is not the nominee is if he voluntarily, albeit under pressure from party leaders, donors, elites, withdraws.

Should he withdraw (under pressure)? The post-debate polling is accumulating and there has been no meaningful change in the head-to-head matchup with Trump. We were losing before the debate, we are losing now, and by similar or identical margins.

Further, post-debate, “Biden’s support among Democratic voters has inched up to 91% from 85%”. (CNN)

Finally, were the president to withdraw and an actual individual replace him, these are CNN’s results:

Trump +2 Harris

Trump +5 Newsom

Trump +4 Buttigieg

Trump +5 Whitmer

The standard for change to force the elected nominee to withdraw from the race, must be 

• a substantial erosion in polling in the states, in the Electoral College vote, 
• occasioned by something, e.g. the debate, that primary voters did not know, 
• a democratic mechanism to choose another candidate 
• who polling shows would likely win where the incumbent nominee would lose.

There is no democratic mechanism to choose a different candidate, therefore the standard is not met, and cannot be met.

Cursing and screaming as we may, it’s Biden or Trump. That’s the choice.