David Plouffe, Harris’s campaign strategist, estimates that Trump’s support will cap out at 48%.
Dan Rather cites Plouffe to be comforting. It is NOT. trumpie won with 46.1%. Hillary lost with 48.2%. trumpie got 46.8% in 2020. He lost because Joe Biden got 51.3%. If trumpie hits Plouffe's ceiling of 48%--Kamala LOSES in the Electoral College and LOSES the election.
If Rather thinks (Plouffe CANNOT think this) that trumpie 48% means Kamala 52%, he is oh so wrong. 52% is more than Biden got! That equation, that 48% trumpie means 52% Kamala, is statistically impossible. Why Benjamin, you fucking MIT idjit, add 48% and 52% and you get 100%?BECAUSE OF MINOR PARTY CANDIDATES. Let me give YOU a math lesson: what does 46.8%+51.3% add up to? Er, uh. 98.1%. 1.9% didn't vote for either Biden or trumpie in 2020. Assume 1.9% vote third party this time (I predict it will be less), divide those equally and subtract from trumpie 48%, Kamala 52%: trumpie gets 47.05%, Kamala 51.05%, Kamala exactly +4%. 3%-4% is the rule of thumb for the national margin for Kamala to prevail in the EC. She is at the top of that rule of thumb. So she would win? Yes, following the rule of thumb as an iron law, and previously I have followed the r.o.t. But it's a close thing. If 44,000 votes in Georgia, Arizona, and Wisconsin had gone for trumpie when they went for Joe, the two would have been deadlocked in the EC with 270, throwing the election into the House where...Yeah. So Biden BARELY had enough to win in the EC when he thumped trump by 4.5% in the national popular vote. I say Kamala will not win with a 51.05% share and a +4% margin.
To me, the most important number to look at in the polling is Kamala's share. Why? Because, as Charlie Cook demonstrated, the last polls before the 2020 election nailed Biden's share: RCP's average was 51%, Fox and NBC/WaPo were 52%. There's a perception that the polls were wrong agayne in 2020, right? Well, that's half right. They missed on trumpie's share, RCP and Fox, 44%, NBC/Wapo, 42%; actual 46.8%. Joe Biden would not have won the election had trumpie gotten 48%! There is no way in holy hell that Kamala is going to win if trumpie hits David Plouffe's ceiling of 48%.
As of 7:57 on Oct. 14, 538's averaged Kamala share is 48.5%, trumpie's is 46.1%--exactly his winning share in 2016. 5.4% are undecided or are preferring a minor candidate. Trumpie will win again with a 46.1% share. Kamala will lose if she gets 48.5%. That's why I say cherchez la femme and her share in the polls. When they're at 51% we can relax.
