My bettor brethren are speaking with their wallets and are overwhelmingly laying their money down on trumpie, now by a whopping 56.1% to 43%, a shocking +13%. Well, I beg to differ.

I am convinced to a standard of more probable than not that the tightening of the presidential race in the national vote is energizing Normals. Kamala's lead was so consistent for so long, not varying much at all, until the last week or so. It was not complaceny, but it is alarming now. I am convinced that the action of the electorate is like that of a bellows, the lead has contracted and the reaction will be that it will swell up again. This is consistent with David Frum's prediction some time ago that the election will remain close until about Oct. 22 and then it will swell in Kamala's favor and will not be as close nationally even than it was in September. Putting it another way, the late deciders will break for Kamala.

This is not to say that Kamala will win the Electoral College handily. I am convinced to a standard of more probable that she will win the EC, but not handily: 276 electoral votes to 262, in my judgment, winning Pa., Mi., Wi., and Nev.