A PRC seizure of TSMC would be "absolutely devastating" to the global economy, likely triggering a depression and massive tech supply chain collapse. As the source of 92% of the world's leading-edge chips, TSMC's capture would paralyze global tech, halt manufacturing...
Global Economic and Technological Impacts:
Tech Sector Shutdown: Global technology production could come to a standstill, as the majority of advanced chips used in AI, smartphones, and defense come from TSMC.
Economic Depression: The disruption would likely cause a global economic crisis exceeding the 2008 recession and COVID-19.
Supply Chain Halt: The world would lose access to advanced semiconductors for 15-20 years.
A PRC seizure of TSMC would be catastrophically disruptive to the global economy, as TSMC produces over 90% of the world's most advanced chips. It would halt global technology production, cost trillions in revenue, break critical supply chain
Potential Global Impact
A PRC seizure of TSMC would likely trigger a global economic depression. Since TSMC produces over 90% of the world's most advanced chips, a disruption would cause massive supply chain failures for everything from smartphones and AI to military hardware.
Query: biden policy prc invasion taiwan, meaning of "unprecedented attack"
During his presidency, Joe Biden repeatedly stated that the U.S. would intervene militarily to defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion. These remarks were consistently qualified by the White House as not representing a change in the official U.S. policy of "strategic ambiguity".
Meaning of "Unprecedented Attack"
The phrase "unprecedented attack" was used by Biden during a September 2022 CBS "60 Minutes" interview to define the condition under which U.S. forces would defend the island. While the administration did not provide an official technical definition, analysts and context suggest several meanings:
A Full-Scale Invasion: When asked to clarify if "unprecedented attack" meant U.S. men and women would defend Taiwan in the event of a "Chinese invasion," Biden responded, "Yes".
Departure from Historical Norms: An attack that goes beyond past skirmishes or "gray zone" tactics, such as the 1950s Taiwan Strait Crises or recent military drills and drone incursions.
Direct Military Confrontation: It specifically implies an overt, large-scale military operation by the People's Liberation Army (PLA) rather than diplomatic or economic coercion.
Summary of Biden-Era Taiwan Policy
Strategic Ambiguity: While Biden's personal rhetoric leaned toward "strategic clarity" (openly stating the U.S. would fight), the official stance remained ambiguous to deter both a Chinese invasion and a Taiwanese declaration of independence.
One China Policy: The administration maintained the U.S. One China Policy, which recognizes Beijing as the legal government of China but allows for unofficial relations and arms sales to Taiwan.
Defense Capabilities: Under the Taiwan Relations Act, the U.S. continued to provide Taiwan with defensive weaponry to maintain a "porcupine" strategy, making the island too costly to attack.
Query: if prc seizes TSMC what should u.s. do?
If the People's Republic of China (PRC) were to seize TSMC, the U.S. response would likely involve a combination of immediate economic statecraft, military deterrence, and long-term industrial shifts. Because the U.S. maintains a policy of strategic ambiguity, there is no single pre-set script, but experts and officials have identified several key levers of response:
1. Immediate Economic and Technical Sanctions
Cutting Off the Ecosystem: TSMC cannot function as a "standalone" entity. It relies on a global ecosystem of U.S. chip design software (EDA), Japanese chemicals, and Dutch lithography machines (ASML). The U.S. would likely lead a global embargo to halt these critical upstream inputs, rendering the seized fabs inoperable for advanced production within a few years.
Invalidating Coerced Sales: U.S. authorities could invalidate any forced transfers of TSMC shares to PRC-linked entities. U.S. investors hold a significant portion of TSMC's equity (over 60% of ADRs), and the SEC could freeze these assets to prevent Beijing from gaining financial control.
2. Technological Denial (The "Poison Pill")
Remote Disabling: Both ASML and TSMC reportedly have the capability to remotely disable the most advanced extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines if they are seized by force.
The "Broken Nest" Policy: Some U.S. and Taiwanese strategists have proposed a "poison pill" or "broken nest" strategy—the intentional destruction of TSMC's facilities to ensure they do not become a "silicon windfall" for the PRC. While controversial, this remains a discussed deterrent.
3. Military and Diplomatic Responses
Deterrence and Defense: Under the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA), the U.S. is committed to maintaining the capacity to resist force that jeopardizes Taiwan’s security. A seizure could trigger a U.S. military intervention to break a blockade or respond to an invasion, though this carries the risk of direct conflict with a nuclear-armed power.
Global Coalition: The U.S. would likely rally allies like Japan, South Korea, and the Netherlands to implement a unified front of sanctions and diplomatic isolation against the PRC.
4. Long-Term Strategic Shifts
Accelerated Reshoring: The U.S. is already working to reduce reliance on Taiwan through the CHIPS and Science Act, which provides billions in subsidies to build domestic manufacturing.
TSMC Expansion in the U.S.: TSMC is significantly expanding its footprint in Arizona, with a fourth plant recently announced. In a seizure scenario, the U.S. would likely prioritize the rapid completion of these facilities and potentially evacuate key Taiwanese engineering talent to staff them.
Potential Global Impact
A PRC seizure of TSMC would likely trigger a global economic depression. Since TSMC produces over 90% of the world's most advanced chips, a disruption would cause massive supply chain failures for everything from smartphones and AI to military hardware.
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My take from this is that the Biden "strategic clarity" response, full-scale commitment of U.S. troops in defense of Taiwan is the only answer. The bullshit alternatives rely on "deterrence" when the question assumes that deterrence has failed.
