The odds - according to statisticians Opta - remain heavily in Arsenal's favour but their chances have fallen from 97% to 73% within a week, while City have leapt from 3% to having a 27% chance of winning the title.
That's an astonishing stat. It sounds like a Nate Silver stat. I don't know from that what the bettors odds are, e.g., City 3/1, bet $1 to win $3. I would...bet that bettors are investing in City if it's ~3/1.
*Update: As of April 19, 2026, Manchester City has become the favorites to win the Premier League following a pivotal victory over Arsenal, with betting odds around 8/11. ...Arsenal’s odds have dropped significantly to around 6/5.
The meaning of an "odds-on" favorite is when the first number is smaller than the second, Betting odds-on favorites is poor investing. For example, to bet City to win, you would have to invest $11 to win $8 back; for Arsenal, you'd wager $5 to win $6. Beeb, your 538-style percentages are bullshit stats. Nobody knows, as Nate Bronze didn't know, what Hillary Clinton having a 70% chance of winning the presidency meant, until she didn't.
Since Arteta took charge of Arsenal in 2019, City have won the Premier League four times but it is Arsenal who have been at number one for the longest period at 537 days to City's 453.
That's an astonishing stat. Why have Arsenal not won a league title in those seven seasons while have City have won four? The Beeb answers:
This month of the calendar remains Guardiola's favourite with his win ratio now standing at 71.4% - 2.53 points per game - while Arteta continues to suffer in his worst month, collecting 1.48 points per game with a win rate success of 39.5%.
That is pathetic, Arteta. Fucking pathetic.
