Wednesday, December 17, 2014

"Russia Is So Screwed."-Slate.

Not helpful. Not empathetic. Not respectful. "Triumphal."

"Markets Rule, 'Russia is on its Knees': [Roger] Altman."-CNBC.

The situation did get Lavrov to change of Ukraine, however. "You cannot negotiate on your knees" as someone once said.

We are going to have to bail them out. The U.S., the IMF, the World Bank, all of the preceding, are not going to let the Russian economy completely go to shit. Again. Right?

All will ask for changes in the way Russia operates. International financial bodies will have their own technical change requirements. The political leaders of the West will have their own requirements for the lifting of sanctions. What? Giving back Crimea? Impossible. Leaving the remainder of Ukraine alone. That seems possible. Democracy or "real" democracy? Are We going to require that? Like in Iraq?

May the Russians negotiate? We give back Crimea, you undo NATO expansion, we promise not to invade former Soviet satellites. I wish, I wish, I wish, I wish. No, the West will not do that. You can't negotiate on your knees, anyway.

Is it likely this make Putin more heedless? "Wreck my economy, Fine! I'll show you. I'll invade Poland!" I say no. Not off Lavrov's comments.

Maybe We, the political We, should just let nature take its course. Que sera sera. Isn't that what I said at one time--many times-- "Farewell to Russia?" Yes, it is. But the sanctions aren't nature. We can decide we don't want to play with Russia anymore, we don't want to "partner" with them anymore, don't want to "integrate" them, don't want to trade with them, we want to "consciously uncouple"--all of that is fine, that would be saying "Farewell to Russia," but the sanctions are not 'natural," they are extraordinary. And they are limited both in scope and (intended) effect.

Russia is "screwed," is "on its knees" more from the collapse of oil prices than the sanctions but there is no doubt that the sanctions have hurt and have worked synergistically with the fall of oil.

Is Russia's present economic state the intended effect of the sanctions? I don't think so. But no Western political leader has said maybe we should back off now that things are so bad. In one case, some German guy, more and more "bitter"sanctions are to come. So I guess a Russian financial collapse, if not intended, is okay with everybody. So I guess I'm wrong. We are going to have to bail them out, though.