Tuesday, December 16, 2014

Russia.

I read recently that the Russian people soured on democracy because after the fall of the Soviet Union there was chaos in Russia. Silly Russians, I thought. Of course there is going to be chaos in a transition from dictatorship to democracy, from communism to capitalism. Silly Russians, they didn't give it a chance.

Last night I was researching what the definition of an economic recession was, found that, and then what a depression was. Russia is going to be in recession in 2015 there is no doubt about that, I was wondering if Russia could be facing a depression. Do you know that there is no agreed upon definition of what an economic depression is? It's like a four-letter word, I read. It's just not said. I thought that weird. "An extreme recession," was one definition. Thank you very not much. I remember the figure, a 10% decline in GDP, I don't remember if that was a component that the concepts of a definition of depression had in common or if that was just one component of one definition. That's a lot though! A 10% decline in GDP, whoa.

Then I read this from Wikipedia:

Regional depressions between 1973 and 2002
Post-Communism

The economic crisis in the 1990s that struck former members of the Soviet Union was almost twice as intense as the Great Depression in the countries of Western Europe and the United States in the 1930s.[16][17][18]

TWICE as intense as the Great Depression. Holy molio. Had no idea.

Average standards of living registered a catastrophic fall in the early 1990s in many parts of the former Eastern Bloc - most notably, in post-Soviet states.[19] Even before Russia's financial crisis of 1998, Russia's GDP was half of what it had been in the early 1990s.[18] Some populations are still poorer today than they were in 1989 (e.g. Ukraine, Moldova, Serbia, Central Asia, Caucasus).[citation needed] 

"Catastrophic" is a pretty dirty word too. A catastrophic fall in the standard of living. Ukraine poorer today than in 1989!

The collapse of the Soviet planned economy and the transition to market economy resulted in catastrophic declines in GDP of about 45% during the 1990–1996 period[20] and poverty in the region had increased more than tenfold.[21]

There's that word again. A 45% fall in GDP, poverty 10 times what it was under the Soviets. So, comparatively the "Soviet planned economy" did phenomenally well. No wonder the Russian people long for the "good old days."

"The collapse of the Soviet Union was the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century."
                              -Vladimir Putin, Address to the Federal Assembly, April 25, 2005.

No, it was not. It was not a geopolitical catastrophe at all for any nation other than Russia, who let their empire, a geopolitical entity, go. It was not the greatest economic catastrophe of the 20th century
either, the Great Depression was, and was worldwide. But for Russians, to whom this speech was given, yes...Well, I, a non-Russian would argue that the October Revolution, which birthed the Soviet Union, was the greatest geopolitical--and economic and humanitarian--catastrophe in 20th century
Russia and in Russian history but Putin and the Russian people would disagree. If we rephrase Putin to read "The collapse of the Soviet Union was the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century for the Russian people," I feel 'em. Can't blame 'em for feeling that way at all.