Saturday, July 09, 2016

The Perot Prelude


I have read of Trump antecedents in the Tea Party, in the Buchanan insurgency in 1992, in Nixon's Southern strategy in 1968, in Lindberg's America First movement in the run up to World War II, all the way back to Andrew Jackson in 1824.

I have not read anything on this so I write what I haven't read. Ross Perot is, was, a billionaire businessman, never held elective office before, who made his political debut by running for president. He ran twice, in 1992 and in 1996. As you will read below from Wikipedia, Perot's was a populist candidacy, media-driven, media-innovative, centered on one man, Perot, who was erratic, paranoid, impossible to control; his populist candidacy cut across the Democratic-Republican divide, he chose a retired admiral as his 1992 running mate, Trump is vetting a retired general;  Perot made racist statements, opposed an Iraq War (the first), hated a Bush (the first), opposed the NAFTA trade agreement with Mexico, led both incumbent president George H.W. Bush and soon-to-be president Bill Clinton in the polls in the summer of 1992. And then dropped out of the race in July. He gave one, then another, explanation, both unconvincing, the second paranoid and bizarre. And then reentered the race in October. Other than those, I cannot think of any other parallels to Trump.

Maya Lin, architect of the Vietnam Veterans Memorial received harassment from Perot after her race was revealed; he was known to have called her an "egg roll" after it was revealed that she was Asian.

Perot did not support President George H. W. Bush and vigorously opposed the United States involvement in the 1990–1991 Persian Gulf War. He unsuccessfully urged Senators to vote against the war resolution, and began to consider his own presidential run.

On February 20, 1992, he appeared on CNN's Larry King Live and announced his intention to run as an independent if his supporters could get his name on the ballot in all fifty states. With such declared policies as balancing the federal budget, opposition to gun control, ending the outsourcing of jobs and enacting electronic direct democracy via "electronic town halls", he...soon polled roughly even with the two major party candidates.

Perot's candidacy received increasing media attention when the competitive phase of the primary season ended for the two major parties.
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Several months before the Democratic and Republican conventions, Perot filled the vacuum of election news, as his supporters began petition drives to get him on the ballot in all fifty states.
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With the insurgent candidacies of Republican Pat Buchanan and Democrat Jerry Brown winding down, Perot was the natural beneficiary of populist resentment toward establishment politicians.
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Perot was late in making formal policy proposals, but most of what he did call for were intended to reduce the deficit. He wanted a gasoline tax increase and some cutbacks of Social Security.

In June, Perot led in the Gallup poll with a 39 percent rating.[29] By mid-July, the Washington Post
reported that Perot's campaign managers were becoming increasingly disillusioned by his
unwillingness to follow their advice to be more specific on issues,[30] and his need to be in full control of operations[30] with such tactics as forcing volunteers to sign loyalty oaths.

Perot's poll numbers began to slip to 25%, and his advisers warned that if he continued to ignore them, he would fall into single digits. Co-manager Hamilton Jordan threatened to quit, and on July 15, Ed Rollins resigned...

Amidst the chaos, Perot's support fell to 20%. The next day, Perot announced on Larry King Live that he would not seek the presidency.

He explained that he did not want the House of Representatives to decide the election if the result caused the electoral college to be split. Perot eventually stated the reason was that he received threats that digitally altered photographs would be released by the Bush campaign to sabotage his daughter's wedding.
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In September, he qualified for all fifty state ballots. On October 1, he announced his intention to reenter the presidential race. He said that Republican operatives had wanted to reveal compromising photographs of his daughter, which would disrupt her wedding, and he wanted to spare her from embarrassment. He campaigned in 16 states and spent an estimated $12.3 million of his own money. Perot employed the innovative strategy of purchasing half-hour blocks of time on major networks for infomercial-type campaign advertisements; this advertising garnered more viewership than many sitcoms, with one Friday night program in October attracting 10.5 million viewers.

At one point in June, Perot led the polls with 39% (versus 31% for Bush and 25% for Clinton). Just prior to the debates, Perot received 7–9% support in nationwide polls.[38] It is likely that the debates played a significant role in his ultimate receipt of 19% of the popular vote. Although his answers during the debates were often general, many Democrats and Republicans conceded that Perot won at least the first debate. In the debate he remarked: "Keep in mind our Constitution predates the Industrial Revolution. Our founders did not know about electricity, the train, telephones, radio, television, automobiles, airplanes, rockets, nuclear weapons, satellites, or space exploration. There's a lot they didn't know about. It would be interesting to see what kind of document they'd draft today. Just keeping it frozen in time won't hack it."
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"We need deeds, not words, in this city." [Washington, D.C.]
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In the 1992 election, he received 18.9% of the popular vote, approximately 19,741,065 votes (but no electoral college votes), making him the most successful third-party presidential candidate in terms of the popular vote since Theodore Roosevelt in the 1912 election.[41]
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A detailed analysis of voting demographics revealed that Perot's support drew heavily from across the political spectrum, with 20% of his votes coming from self-described liberals, 27% from self-described conservatives, and 53% coming from self-described moderates... Exit polls also showed that Ross Perot drew 38% of his vote from Bush, and 38% of his vote from Clinton, while the rest of his voters would have stayed home had he not been on the ballot.

Based on his performance in the popular vote in 1992, Perot was entitled to receive federal election funding for 1996. Perot remained in the public eye after the election and championed opposition to the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), urging voters to listen for the "giant sucking sound" of American jobs heading south to Mexico should NAFTA be ratified.
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He was a prominent campaigner against the North American Free Trade Agreement, and even debated with Al Gore on the issue on Larry King Live. Perot's behavior during the debate was a source of mirth thereafter, including his repeated pleas to "let me finish" in his southern drawl. The debate was seen by many as effectively ending Perot’s political career.[44] Support for NAFTA went from 34% to 57%.
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Perot received eight percent of the popular vote in 1996...
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Later in the 1990s, Perot's detractors accused him of not allowing the Reform Party to develop into a genuine national political party, but rather using it as a vehicle to promote himself.