There was an article by Harry Enten, of 538 in 2016, in CNN yesterday. I’m sure you saw. “Biden’s true leadis smaller then appears.” If you haven’t seen it I’m not even sending the link. I’m calling out Harry Enten for being unintentionally deceptive.
The only way to read that lede is that infamous powers are once again at work and the polls are wrong, every Dem’s nightmare from 2016. That is not what Enten writes. He is drawing a distinction merely between Biden’s average national lead, which he puts at 8%, and the average lead, 5%, that Biden has in the swing states, which he numbers at 15 and RCP at 12. Enten writes to inform us that Biden’s path to 270 AMONG THE 15 CLOSEST STATES is 3% less than when you include CA, NY, etc where Biden is up like 30, or AL and MS where Trump is up like 30. OF COURSE IT’S GOING TO BE LESS IF YOU TAKE THE 15 CLOSEST STATES. Jesus, talk about a firm grasp of the obvious. Both sets of numbers are true. The most important point is that Biden is UP in 9 of 12 of RCP’s “top battlegrounds”. Trump is up in THREE. Thank you for your attention.
The only way to read that lede is that infamous powers are once again at work and the polls are wrong, every Dem’s nightmare from 2016. That is not what Enten writes. He is drawing a distinction merely between Biden’s average national lead, which he puts at 8%, and the average lead, 5%, that Biden has in the swing states, which he numbers at 15 and RCP at 12. Enten writes to inform us that Biden’s path to 270 AMONG THE 15 CLOSEST STATES is 3% less than when you include CA, NY, etc where Biden is up like 30, or AL and MS where Trump is up like 30. OF COURSE IT’S GOING TO BE LESS IF YOU TAKE THE 15 CLOSEST STATES. Jesus, talk about a firm grasp of the obvious. Both sets of numbers are true. The most important point is that Biden is UP in 9 of 12 of RCP’s “top battlegrounds”. Trump is up in THREE. Thank you for your attention.
