The fact that case numbers are falling does not mean that the country has reached herd immunity, a goal that many scientists now believe is unattainable. But the rising levels of vaccination and infection, combined with more modest behavioral changes, may have been enough to bring the surge to an end.
Okay, I'm getting tired. I can't parse that paragraph.*Updated at post time. Original 2:37 p.m.: I regained my energy. I have done some research. First of all, vaccines do confer immunity on the individual vaccinated, so I was wrong about that, on the following conditions: 1) perfect efficacy, which of course we do not have, and 2) no waning of efficacy, which we do have. So the percentage of people in whom the vaccination is 100% effective (~95% of the Pfizer vaccine) can be lumped together with those who have "natural immunity" (also not perfect) from previous infection, or "passive immunity" (transmitted by mother to child in utero) on the path to herd immunity if these conditions are met:
1) a sufficient percentage of individuals in a population, which varies by disease, has one of the forms of immunity,
2) the immune cannot transmit the disease. One of the articles I read was in Nature, March 18, 2021. The article has a section poignantly titled It’s unclear whether vaccines prevent transmission. Well, it's clear now. They don't. Copying and pasting directly from the article, The key to herd immunity is that...those who have been vaccinated or have already had the infection cannot contract and spread the virus. Contract: what about those breakthrough infections? That was the most alarming thing we learned this summer. Moderna and Pfizer–BioNTech, for example, are extremely effective at preventing symptomatic disease, but it is still unclear whether they protect people from becoming infected, or from spreading the virus to others. That poses a problem for herd immunity. The vaccines don't do either so that's two problems for herd immunity. “Herd immunity is only relevant if we have a transmission-blocking vaccine. If we don’t, then the only way to get herd immunity in the population is to give everyone the vaccine.”- Shweta Bansal, a mathematical biologist at Georgetown University. That can be confusing. What she's saying is herd immunity is premised on a lack of "hospitable hosts." You don't have to have 100% vaccine efficacy and you don't have to have 100% non-transmissibility but the virus has to have a place to stay nearby. No Motel 6's. Preventing transmission has to be “pretty darn high," she says. That's a technical scientific term, I think in Latin. If you have vaccines where blocking transmission isn't "pretty darn high" then everyone, full 100, have to get vaxed. That's what she's saying: No Motel 6's or 100% have to be vaxed. Even 70% effectiveness would be “amazing”, says Samuel Scarpino, a network scientist who studies infectious diseases at Northeastern University... These doctors with the fancy Latin. Showoffs. Dang man, I think Dr. S. may be using his Latin too loosely. Are our vaccines really south of the 70% amazing threshold in preventing transmission? I didn't think they were that bad.
3) for those with vaccinated immunity, the vaccines efficacy does not wane. Immunity might not last forever. Calculations for herd immunity consider two sources of individual immunity — vaccines and natural infection. People who have been infected with SARS-CoV-2 seem to develop some immunity to the virus, but how long that lasts remains a question. Holy shit. That is a highly qualified statement from March. ...it seems that infection-associated immunity wanes over time, so that needs to be factored in to calculations...And they’ll have to account for the fact that the vaccines are not 100% effective...It will also be important to understand how long vaccine-based immunity lasts, and whether boosters are necessary over time. Six months and yes.
4) new variations do not spring up that can infect the immune. New variants change the herd-immunity equation. new variants of SARS-CoV-2 are sprouting up that might be more transmissible and resistant to vaccines. Ouch. Again, this article is from March. Walensky slept on Delta in May. “We’re in a race with the new variants,” says Sara Del Valle, a mathematical and computational epidemiologist at Los Alamos National Laboratory in New Mexico. The longer it takes to stem transmission of the virus, the more time these variants have to emerge and spread, she says. The undersigned has written this repeatedly: We're slow, man. Americans. We couldn't win a race against a three-legged paraplegic. And then, There’s another problem to contend with as immunity grows in a population, Ferrari says. Higher rates of immunity can create selective pressure, which would favour variants that are able to infect people who have been immunized. Vaccinating quickly and thoroughly can prevent a new variant from gaining a foothold. So we're fucked!
5) If vaccinations are used the vaccines are administered en masse, that means, apparently, worldwide, and at the same time. Asymmetrical vaccination rates don't cut it. I'll copy and paste from the Nature article: As COVID-19 vaccination rates pick up around the world...many scientists had thought that once people started being immunized en masse, herd immunity would kick in...But as new variants arise and immunity from infections potentially wanes we take it up the ass. Pardon my French. We have neither has the vaccine prevents transmission. The COVID-19 vaccines do not prevent transmission. The speed and distribution of vaccine roll-outs matters for various reasons, says Matt Ferrari, an epidemiologist at Pennsylvania State University...A perfectly coordinated global campaign could have wiped out COVID-19, he says, at least theoretically. “It’s a technically feasible thing, but in reality it’s very unlikely that we will achieve that on a global scale,” he says. Well, no shit.
6) You don't go around swapping spit with everybody in Provincetown or in football stadia. Israel is closing in on the theoretical herd-immunity threshold...The problem is that, as more people are vaccinated, they will increase their interactions...“The vaccine is not bulletproof,”... Imagine that a vaccine offers 90% protection: “If before the vaccine you met at most one person, and now with vaccines you meet ten people, you’re back to square one.”
Okay, that only took me another two hours. Four hours today on one goddamned article. Good night!
Was This the Last Covid Surge for the U.S.?
Rising immunity and modest changes in behavior may explain why cases are declining, but much remains unknown, scientists say.
...the coronavirus is again in retreat.
Again.
Over the past two years, the pandemic has crashed over the country in waves, inundating hospitals and then receding, only to return after Americans let their guard down.
Inform that statement, "Americans let their guard down." We followed our leaders' advice pretty well, didn't we?
...
It is difficult to tease apart the reasons that the virus ebbs and flows in this way, and harder still to predict the future.
But as winter looms, there are real reasons for optimism. Nearly 70 percent of adults are fully vaccinated, and many children under 12 are likely to be eligible for their shots in a matter of weeks. Federal regulators could soon authorize the first antiviral pill for Covid-19.
Now, are you saying that what we really needed was 70% adults fully vaxed when the president told us if we hit 70% partially vaxed by July 4th we could set off the fireworks of joy? We reached 70% one shot on August 5. Everything after that should have been honky-dory, right? How'd that work out? Does "fully vaccinated" mean booster shots too, you know, since Pfizer's efficacy declined over 45% after six months?
“We are definitely, without a doubt, hands-down in a better place this year than we were last year,” said Dr. Nahid Bhadelia, director of the Center for Emerging Infectious Diseases Policy and Research at Boston University.
Setting the bar pretty low, aren't you Dr. Bhadelia? We had NO vaccines in October, 2020. We had NOBODY vaccinated.
...scientists cautioned....another winter surge is plausible. Given how many Americans remain unvaccinated, and how much remains unknown, it is too soon to abandon basic precautions...
Oh stop with the vaccinations. We're at 76.7% of all Americans age TWELVE and up with at least one shot. And stop with "basic precautions." The money shot of that passage is "MUCH REMAINS UNKNOWN." And you know what reporter? It's willful unknowing. The scientists you talk to will away any discussion or even consideration of HERD IMMUNITY, that this thing is going to do its thing until it runs out of people to infect. And it may never! COVID-19 is so quick to adapt, it has already mutated a variation that is much better at avoiding vaccine-conferred immunity; that variation is already here and is next up when Delta finishes its at bat.
When the first wave of cases hit the United States in early 2020, there was no Covid vaccine, and essentially no one was immune to the virus.
Like India.
The only way to flatten the proverbial curve was to change individual behavior.
India didn't change individual behavior unless you can't visiting hospital and then the funeral pyre "changing individual behavior." Delta roared and burned and burned out in eight weeks. Our changes in individual behavior kept Delta's fire burning longer and slower, but burning still. And as we slow it with vaccinations and changes in individual behavior we give the virus time to mutate.
Delta arrived during a period of deep pandemic fatigue...
Delta arrived when Dr. Rachelle Walensky stopped tracking Delta infections.
“If you just look around, people are much more living a normal life or a pre-Covid life,” said Dr. Christopher Murray, director of the institute.
That's right. I have and they are. So why have C's and H's and D's fallen this fall?
Still, even modest changes in behavior can help slow transmission...
Wait, you just quoted a guy to the effect that individuals did not change their behavior. (?) "Slow," not stop, slow. "Now, do you want me to stop or to slow down," said the cop beating the speeder.Give it time to mutate, yeah, that's the ticket.
...more temperate autumn weather arrived, making it possible for Americans in many regions of the country to socialize outside, where the virus is less likely to spread.
So it's okay to cough and sneeze on the person seated next to you in an 80,000 seat football stadium as long as it isn't domed? You don't mean that. You're just repeating what the scientists are telling you their theory is since they don't know. I have to criticize myself here. We're on October 14 now. School has been back in session for a month and a half. Half the college tackle football games have been played, and the largest stadia and the most recalcitrant people at "changing individual behavior" are in the slave states. Yet, we have not seen a fall spike, we have seen a clear decline across all three categories. Did not DREAM that would happen.
Indeed, many of the current virus hot spots are in the northernmost parts of the country, from Alaska to Minnesota, where even cooler temperatures may be sending people back inside.
In other words, it's a theory, the experts you talk to don't know but whatever the correct theory is it's not acquisition of herd immunity in the slave states, I see.
Behavioral change is a temporary, short-term way to drive cases down. The true end to the pandemic will come through immunity.
Increasing immunity
The Delta wave was the first major, national surge to occur after vaccines had become widely available, providing many adults with substantial protection against the virus.
I have never been clear on this. Do these vaccines confer immunity? If they do is it immunity as robust as one gets from being naturally infected and recovering? Or do these vaccines offer "protection" against infection without conferring immunity? So it's one thing, right, if I get the virus but either I don't get the full monty or my immune system is robust enough to fight it off. That's the theory with "live virus" immunization. It's another thing if the vaccine I get jiggers my cell configuration to prevent the COVID spikes from sticking to my cells. In that case, I haven't gotten infected. My understanding, it may be faulty, is that these vaccines work in the latter way. I know that they are not live virus vaxes. They make the cell body too "slippery" (my term) for the virus to adhere. The virus cells are still there in our bodies! That was one of the summer's revelations. Fully vaxed folks have nasal passages chock full of virus. They just can't stick in that body. The virus cells are looking for a way out, that's why they're in our noses. They're hoping we sneeze on an unvaxed slaver, which I am delighted to do! The virus in a vaxed body can't stick--yet. When vaccine efficacy wanes our bodies' cells lose their ability to "slip" the virus and we can get infected.
At the same time, the variant was so infectious that it spread rapidly through vulnerable populations, conferring natural immunity on many unvaccinated Americans.
Although neither vaccination nor prior infection provides perfect protection against the virus, they dramatically reduce the odds of catching it. So by September, the virus had a substantially harder time finding hospitable hosts.
You're mixing apples and oranges, vaccinated and natural immunity. The first is great at preventing infection but it does not make us immune from infection. Yes, you can get polio twice, but the Salk vaccine made our bodies able to fight off infection with the polio virus "naturally," it did not "trick" the virus into being unable to infect us. The last sentence in the article, "hospitable hosts" is 100% accurate.
“Delta is running out of people to infect,” said Jeffrey Shaman, an infectious disease epidemiologist at Columbia University.
I have a question: The COVID virus still lives in vaccinated people's noses; I was shocked to learn that all of us still have live polio virus inside us too! So my question is, do the COVID vaccines prevent a vaxed person from becoming infected with the virus that's still in his nose? Or do "breakthrough infections" have to come from outside the vaxed body? Would not waning vaccine efficacy make the vaxed susceptible to reinfection from within? What does COVID care how a host becomes "hospitable"?
...
Some patterns still defy explanation. In March and April, for instance, Michigan was hit hard by the Alpha variant, Delta’s slightly less infectious predecessor.
Other states were largely spared, for reasons that remain unclear, Dr. Murray said. “Why was Michigan the only state with a large Alpha surge in spring?” he said. “We have no idea.”
The winter forecast
What comes next is hard to predict, but cases may not necessarily continue their steady decline, scientists warned.
...
“That should be a wake-up call,” said Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota. “Do not go back into the pre-Fourth-of-July mind-set again, where everybody thought it was done and over with.”
So people should not attend the Nebraska game at your university on Saturday, Dr. Osterholm? It'll be all smarm from me from here on.
Most experts said they would not be surprised to see at least a small increase in cases later this fall or this winter as people begin spending more time indoors and traveling for the holidays.
But...any coming winter spikes may be less catastrophic than last year’s.
“It’s not likely that it will be as deadly as the surge we had last winter, unless we get really unlucky with respect to a new variant,” Dr. Salomon said.
The emergence of a new variant remains a wild card, as does the possibility that the protection afforded by vaccination could start to wane more substantially.
Our own behavior is another source of uncertainty.
Don't go to the Nebraska-Minnesota football game.
...scientists said [b]y and large, they did not recommend canceling holiday plans; many said they themselves would be celebrating with friends and relatives. But they did suggest taking sensible precautions.
Go to the Nebraska-Minnesota football game but don't cheer too loud.
