Why the Pittsburgh Panthers have a legitimate College Football Playoff chance
It's all a bit counterintuitive. So let's break down the case for the Panthers.
Pitt is really good
The Panthers are the sixth-best team in the country, according to FPI. Sixth best! That Cincinnati team that is getting so much buzz as the possible first Group of 5 school to crack the CFP? Pitt is better. Undefeated Michigan State? Pitt's better. One-loss Notre Dame and one-loss Oregon? Pitt's better. Undefeated Wake Forest? Pitt is much better. You get the idea.
Actually, I get nervous.So what makes FPI believe Pitt will be so great? To put it simply, Pitt has been exceptional on a play-by-play level.
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You want it in the simplest possible terms? Pitt currently has a plus-25.7 [expected points added per play] points margin per game, No. 5 in the country.
And the fact that the Panthers' breakout is unexpected is actually held against them. FPI's prior belief on Pitt entering the season wasn't particularly strong relative to other top contenders. That's still factored in, but Pitt's No. 6 FPI ranking comes despite that.
It can weather the loss to Western Michigan
I'll let you in on a little secret: As long as the schedule and record remain the same, mathematically it does not matter which team you lose to. Seriously. [emphasis added]
Seriously, this is the false logic of mathematical modeling. Of course it matters who the fuck you lose to! It matters to the goddamned selection committee! If we had beaten WMU (at home) and lost by three to Clemson (at home) or Tennessee on the road that would matter to people.In other words, Pitt currently ranks 17th in strength of record. Had its loss come against Western Michigan or Georgia Tech or Clemson or heck, even New Hampshire, it would have been 17th. As long as the Panthers played the same schedule and were the same 6-1. What difference does it make?
If we compare Pitt to Ohio State: The Buckeyes lost to a much better team in Oregon. But Ohio State hasn't beaten anyone of the caliber of Clemson. Or gotten a win at Tennessee for that matter. If we compare the schedules, Pitt's has been slightly harder. Which is why it's been slightly more impressive to go 6-1 against Pitt's schedule than Ohio State's (the Buckeyes rank 20th in SOR).
It has a 27% chance to win out and could make a pretty strong case as a one-loss champion
Now that we're past whom Pitt lost to, let's talk about whether it could get in despite having a loss. Of course, we're talking about a world where Pitt wins out -- that's the only way any of this matters -- so get yourself in a state of mind where the Panthers have gone on a heck of a run, won out, and won the ACC.
It's not that far-fetched because of what we've already discussed: Pitt is awfully strong as a team, and it doesn't have a particularly hard schedule with Clemson now in the rearview mirror.
Okay well, Miami has a new QB and is playing with an intensity of belief that was not there earlier in the year. North Carolina still has Sam Howell and Mack Brown, and Virginia is good.At 12-1, we project that Pitt would rank fifth in strength of record. So the way the model views it: Pitt would be fifth in strength of record, sixth in FPI, have one loss and be a conference champion. It's not a perfect résumé and would not guarantee a playoff berth. But it's probably enough to get in.
At 12-1--I'm getting light-headed--okay. Could we just take this one game at a time?If you're looking for a parallel, [No, I'm not looking for any fucking parallel!] here's one: 2019 Oklahoma. That season, the Sooners ranked fifth in SOR but ninth in FPI -- a bit worse than where we have Pitt now. They were 12-1 and Big 12 champs. And they got into the playoff.
But it would need some chaos
What a 12-1 Pitt cannot have is four of the following also existing on selection day:
Undefeated or 1-loss Georgia
1-loss champion Alabama
Undefeated or 1-loss champion Oklahoma
Undefeated or 1-loss champion Ohio State or Michigan
Undefeated Michigan State
Pitt cannot have four of those. It's gonna have Georgia, gonna have Oklahoma.
In addition, a non-exhaustive list of other situations under which Pitt might lose out includes:
Undefeated Cincinnati
2-loss Alabama
1-loss champion Oregon
1-loss champion Michigan State
That seems like a lot! But here's the thing: Any scenario we concoct to make four of these happen is not particularly likely to happen.
Let's look at a chalky example. The chance that Oklahoma wins out, Ohio State wins out and Alabama wins out, with Georgia winning out until it loses to Alabama is ... just 1%.
Let's try: Oklahoma, Ohio State, Georgia and Cincinnati winning out. That has less than a 1% chance of happening, and it's not even clear if Cincinnati or Pittsburgh would take that last playoff spot if the Panthers also won out.
Now these can add up, particularly when we consider that some of these teams have breathing room to lose a game. But my point is: We shouldn't compare Pitt's record to those of other contenders today. We should compare it on selection day ... and there is very likely to be mayhem between now and then.
What separates Pitt from Wake Forest?
It's a little shocking to see Pitt with a 22% chance to reach the playoff when fellow ACC team Wake Forest is under 1% despite being undefeated. So what's the difference? Quite a bit.
