Two articles by 🎪 🔥 beat writers today accentuate some perennial quirks at 601 Biscayne.
Ira Winderman of the Sun-Sentinel answers a reader's question, why the difference between the Katrina "Heat" and the Gilbert ☠ "Heat"?
…there...was more energy and commitment from the Heat [against Cle]. To me, the problem is that the Heat all too often this season have been a “sometimes” team. This Heat roster is not good enough to be a “sometimes” team. And oftentimes, the result is where the Heat currently stand, as a middle-of-the-pack team. That said, sometimes can turn into all the time, as happened with the Heat in last season’s playoffs.—Ira Winderman
So four things there: 1) lack of consistent effort. That's an uncommon criticism. Why there would be less against Katrina when Jimmy Butler put a target on his team's back and when both games, at home, were in the last few during a playoff push is incomprehensible by me. 2) lack of talent. That's an uncommon criticism coming from the local pencils, not elsewhere (including here). 3) "oftentimes...middle of the pack", yeah like for ten regular seasons running. 4) The only thing that matters to this org with this team is the 'loffs. An "eighty-two game league"? They don't accept that. Let the ticket-buying public eat cake.
Anthony Chiang, Miami Herald:
The Heat has already set a new franchise record with 34 different starting lineups used this season. The previous Heat record for most different starting lineups used in a season was 31 in the 2014-15 season.
2014/15 was the first season post-LBJ, and when Chris Bosh developed heart problems. That was Year Chaos.
The broader point though is that Erik Spoelstra is a tinkerer at heart. The org has made no major changes to the roster in the last few off-seasons. The team's core has been together for a few years. They are playoff-seasoned. Injuries happen. "Fourth-most this season!" as every local pencil feels compelled to write in every article. "It's not an excuse" as Spoelstra feels compelled to say after every L. Then Spoelstra is tinkering too much or the org's vaunted Culture, "hardest working, best conditioned", is wearing the players down. There are marquee players who don't want to come to Miami because of the demands of "Heat" culture. The 2013/14 Finalists to a man told Pat Riley in exit interviews that they were mentally exhausted after four Finals appearances. Riley didn't accept that.
…
That lack of clarity and continuity could be driving the Heat’s inconsistent play this regular season, ... But those within the organization believe it will turn into an advantage this postseason.
“Yes, you do need continuity and chemistry, which plays a big part. But I think we have that between our guys. …”—Caleb Martin
It's not just this season, it was last, too. Lack of clarity and continuity has been a deal-breaker for some players in past seasons, Hassan Whiteside several years ago and Dwayne Dedmon last season are two who immediately come to mind and two who got a one-way ticket out of town by going public with their frustrations with "lack of clarity and continuity".
“There’s always going to be a benefit,” Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said. “A lot of guys get to step up and earn the opportunity to impact winning. The more players that can be engaged in a season and impact wins, that helps. Our versatility is super important for our team. So we feel like we’ve been able to weather some of the missed games.”
When anyone uses a categorical such as "always", that person should be met with skepticism and a psychiatric team. Point out the "always a benefit" in these numbers, Spo: 39-32, 45-37. Chiang, not a shrink, meets Spo's pollyannaism with skepticism:
That’s one way to view it, but a look at the Heat’s lineup data shows that injuries have prevented Miami from establishing a reliable go-to combination this season.
That's just 601 Biscayne's talking point, delivered before any article is written and made compulsory reading by those who write them. So let's test the sturdiness of that crutch: What has the team's record been when its new "Big Three" have been able to play together?
…the Heat’s leading trio of Adebayo, Butler and Tyler Herro to just 21 games played together this season, with Herro sidelined since late February because of a foot issue. The Heat went just 10-11 in those games…
Oh. Frowny face. Anthony, you just kicked your own crutch away. The crutch then gets broken into pieces with this two-season stat:
Since Tyler became a starter in 2022/23 the "Heat's" record with the "Big Three" starting is at this writing, 36-36.
...
Only one Heat lineup, whether starting or not, has logged more than 100 minutes together this season. That’s the unit of Terry Rozier, Duncan Robinson, Jimmy Butler, Nikola Jovic and Bam Adebayo, which has been outscored by 4.2 points per 100 possessions in 115 minutes together this season.
So the Big Three lineup and the most-used lineup haven't worked. That doesn't sound good.
In contrast, the Boston Celtics’ primary five of Jrue Holiday, Derrick White, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum and Kristaps Porzingis entered Monday with 554 minutes played together this season.
Is there a talent disparity there or do my eyes deceive me? Terry, Duncan, Jimmy, Niko, Bam vs Holiday, White, Brown, Tatum, Porzingis.
…. “You got to have different guys out there. I think coach is trying to figure out who jells well together, so it’s the long game.”—Terry Rozier
That long game needs to produce positive results soon, with just 11 games left on the Heat’s regular-season schedule.
The "Heat" is playing a disingenuous, cynical, and dangerous hand.
Disingenuous: "We have enough". Whoever we have on the roster plus the Wizard in the penthouse who collected and assembled it is enough to win a championship. We haven't had enough since 2013!
Cynical: Because we don't have enough, 601 Biscayne has narrowed its focus to the playoffs at the expense of the regular season and to the expense of the ticket-buying fan. Cynical also because success has been redefined from hoisting the gold Larry O'Brien Trophy to, at best, taking the silver medal in the Finals. In our two recent Finals appearances we have not come close to winning.
Dangerous: The team needed a game-two W in the play-in to begin the playoffs as the eighth seed and make their run all the way to the Finals in 2022/23. They are in a play-in slot now. If they survive the play-in this season they guarantee themselves the hardest or second-hardest path in the playoffs. If they finish sixth they play the three-seed. NBA basketball is not Olympic gymnastics. You don't get points for degree of difficulty. The playoffs are a Darwinian gauntlet in which only the strongest, fleetest, fittest, most-skilled survive. Through *72 games [including the GSW game march 26] this season the "Heat" are 17-24 against those teams, statistically defined here as those that have a record of .500 or better. (Hindsight is always 20/20: In 2022/23 we were 24-24 against .500 and better teams, fourth best in the East. We should have seen it coming.) There is no reason-based expectation that this team will repeat last season's Miami Miracle.
If they don't make another deep run, what becomes of "Heat Culture"?
