Prior to the elections this year, polls showed Joe Biden dancing around the 50 percent threshold. The final RealClearPolitics poll average had Biden ahead 51 percent to 44 percent. Fox News had the race at 52-44, while NBC News/Washington Post put it at 52-42. Now, as of late Thursday afternoon, the actual national popular-vote count gives Biden 50.8 percent to Trump’s 47.4 percent, [51.3%-46.8% final] a 3.4-point [4.5%] margin. It would seem, then, that much of the polling came close to nailing Biden’s share of the vote but in the end the undecided voters broke for Trump, as they did four years ago....in the end the undecided voters broke for Trump, as they did four years ago.
I see. The polling, Biden 51%, 52%, 52%, did nail Biden's actual share, 51.3%. The polling underestimated trumpie's support, or in Cook's view, was flummoxed by late deciders, which added 2.8%-4.8% to trumpie's actual share. Thus, the polling margin, Biden +7, Biden +8, Biden +10, wasn't even close to the actual, 4.5%.
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This year, the undecideds broke moderately back toward Trump, making the race closer than it seemed to be earlier...
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What could have triggered the bout of cold feet among this narrow but apparently pivotal slice of voters? Could it have been all this talk of socialism, defunding police, Medicare-for-all, racial tension, or episodes of urban violence over the summer? Research by Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg points in that direction.
Since Greenberg found that in 2020 with JOE BIDEN (!) imagine the effect of "Comrade Kamala" and "She's a Marxist" this year!
Are late deciders just the "hidden trump voters" of lore? Those who have really decided to vote for trumpie but don't want to say it out loud? I don't know. The same thing happened in 2016, though.* Whether truly undecideds who broke late for trumpie or "hidden trump voters", this phenomenon is part of trumpie's electoral history, as much as my Publocc Rule that trumpie will not get more than 46.8% of the vote. Since polling really did nail Biden's share of the vote in 2020, we now have a corollary to the Publocc Rule: Kamala must get over 48.2% (HRC's 2016 share) and her margin must be greater than 2.1% (HRC's) to win in the Electoral College. Since RCP was the most accurate (winner of pig beauty contest) of the three cited by Cook in 2020, we'll use them again for this year in this post.
Harris: 49.3%-47.3%.
Publocc Trump Share Rule : Fail
Publocc Kamala Share Rule Share: Pass
Publocc Kamala Margin Rule: Fail
Using RCP to be consistent with Cook, trumpie will win the election. When trumpie won the Electoral College his opponent got under 50% of the vote. When he lost in the EC, his opponent got over 50%. The conventional wisdom is that Kamala must win the pop vote by a margin of about 3.5% to win the Electoral College. She is far short of that margin now (according to RCP). My gut is that for Kamala to win in the EC she has to get 50%+ of the popular vote. She is closer to that. But of my now three Rules, the first and the one I believe in the most is the Trump Share Rule, the sum of Always Trumpers + late deciders + hidden trump voters. That is going to be no more than 46.8%. I believe in my heart of hearts and gut of guts that RCP's current trumpie share is overstated by at least .5%.
*According to Cook, it also happened in 1980. The race was close and there were undecided voters until exactly a week before the election (no early voting then) when the only debate between Carter and Reagan took place Cook writes that the previously undecideds were convinced by Reagan's debate performance and broke for him, giving him a 51%-41% win margin.
