Whether individual polls, polling averages, or forecasting, political modeling or the betting markets, on any site, whether RCP or VoteHub, Silver Bulletin or Kalshi, the red dot has shifted above the blue dot. trumpie has been a nibbling cancer on Kamala's lead in any metric for a month. Everyone in America except David Plouffe sees the red shift.
There is one data point of direct evidence and one point of indirect evidence that it might be different when the ballots are counted. The direct evidence is that in Pennsylvania requested absentee ballots were overwhelmingly from Democrats, and in Georgia there were record-setting numbers of early voters. That gestures to a "hidden hand", whether it be called the ground game or GOTV, it is the undisputed superiority of Kamala's campaign to get every single Kamala voter to vote. Beyond a reasonable doubt Kamala has a substantial lead in Pennsylvania and Georgia in votes already cast. In each and every swing state, the margins right now are so exquisitely close that this grinding, grunting, trudging ground game could tip the vote--in every single swing state--to Kamala.
The hidden hand is the only caveat to the red shift, and it's a big ask. It requires more votes cast for Kamala than for trumpie among voters who already say they are likely to vote. So if trumpie leads Pennsylvania by o.5% percent among likely voters, Kamala's hidden hand has to get 0.5%+1 more of her voters to vote among those likely to vote. There is a limit to how much the hidden hand can do.
The red shift cannot much continue for another sixteen days, for if it does it will get beyond the capability of the hand to affect. It is not reasonable to dispute that if the ballots match tonight's polls Kamala would win the national popular vote very narrowly and trumpie would win the Electoral College, and with it, of course, the presidency, decisively. Unless something occurs to halt this month-long cancer, the hidden hand will be paralyzed and trumpie very likely will be the next president.
