BTC is at $11,360 as I type. Within the last two months it cracked $20,000 for a nanosecond on some exchange and got under $6,000 on some. Why? The people?
These are some very interesting people. As varied as human behavior is, it is not unpredictable. Hell, even human criminal behavior is predictable. Human behavior is not random. The behavior of homo sapiens economicus has been intently studied for a long, long time. The rational investor? Uh, no. Some guy just won the econ Nobel for debunking the rational investor model. I have followed Bitcoin's ups and downs for a year and a half now. I have never been able to find a rational reason for said ups and downs. Neither have brighter econ homos than me. Warren Buffett, pretty bright bulb, no?, Warren Buffett was quoted around Christmas as predicting that where we then were was the beginning of the end for BTC. Hel-lo Tulip Bulbs. One pub quoted a Wall Street type in December as predicting it would go beneath $10,000 by the end of the year--which it did--, the same pub was constrained to point out that when they consulted this oracle a few months prior he had predicted $40,000 by the end of the year. I am convinced that nobody knows shit. And that's not the way it's supposed to be. It's supposed to be somebody knows shit.
This evening I wanted to know how BTC people compared with S&P 500 people. BTC price graph, all-time (July, 2010-present):
Coindesk
Now, I'll be a sonabitch if I thought the Standard and Poor's graph for the same period was going to look like that.
And it didn't. And I'm not a sonofabitch.
Cannot figger out these Bitcoin people...just canNOT figure them out. Piers, I need you.
These are some very interesting people. As varied as human behavior is, it is not unpredictable. Hell, even human criminal behavior is predictable. Human behavior is not random. The behavior of homo sapiens economicus has been intently studied for a long, long time. The rational investor? Uh, no. Some guy just won the econ Nobel for debunking the rational investor model. I have followed Bitcoin's ups and downs for a year and a half now. I have never been able to find a rational reason for said ups and downs. Neither have brighter econ homos than me. Warren Buffett, pretty bright bulb, no?, Warren Buffett was quoted around Christmas as predicting that where we then were was the beginning of the end for BTC. Hel-lo Tulip Bulbs. One pub quoted a Wall Street type in December as predicting it would go beneath $10,000 by the end of the year--which it did--, the same pub was constrained to point out that when they consulted this oracle a few months prior he had predicted $40,000 by the end of the year. I am convinced that nobody knows shit. And that's not the way it's supposed to be. It's supposed to be somebody knows shit.
This evening I wanted to know how BTC people compared with S&P 500 people. BTC price graph, all-time (July, 2010-present):
Now, I'll be a sonabitch if I thought the Standard and Poor's graph for the same period was going to look like that.
Cannot figger out these Bitcoin people...just canNOT figure them out. Piers, I need you.
