Pittsburgh quarterback Kenny Pickett is off to an exceptional start to the season, and he's worked his way into the Heisman conversation while putting the Panthers in the driver's seat in the ACC Coastal. Still, this is just a good QB having a great season, right?
Perhaps not, says Clemson defensive coordinator Brent Venables.
Asked for a good comparison for Pickett among other QBs Venables has coached against over the years, the longtime Tigers defensive coordinator went big -- really big.
"We've seen a bunch of good quarterbacks over the years," Venables said, "but he's a lot like Joe Burrow from an experienced and calmness and accuracy and can run and makes all the right decisions and has a good complement of players around him and a good system that takes advantage of his skill set."
On first blush, this seems to go past high praise and into the category of gaslighting an opponent. But here's the thing: The comparison actually makes a ton of sense.
First, step back a year. In 2020, Pickett was a good -- if not at all flashy -- QB. He finished the season with 2,553 yards, 21 TDs and nine interceptions. Fine, but unspectacular. Then think of 2018 Burrow, nowhere near a Heisman candidate, who put up similar numbers: 3,293 yards, 23 TDs, five interceptions in four more games.
Then -- poof! -- a switch flipped and, in 2019, Burrow blossomed into a Heisman winner and the leader of college football's most explosive offense. And once again, the comparisons to Pickett aren't far off.
2019 Burrow through six games: 2,262 yards, 27 touchdowns, three turnovers, 34 plays of 20+ yards, 93.1 Total QBR
2021 Pickett through six games: 2,114 yards, 24 touchdowns, three turnovers, 35 plays of 20+ yards, 88.4 Total QBR
Sure, Burrow was a bit ahead at the halfway mark, but the margin isn't nearly as big as you might've assumed.
So, is Clemson staring down the barrel of another blowout loss to a Heisman winner, as happened in the Tigers' national championship game against LSU in 2020?
This is where things get tricky. Pickett's history against Clemson is wretched. In two prior games, he's just 26-of-55 passing (47.3%) for 217 yards (3.95 yards/pass) with two touchdowns and seven turnovers to go with nine sacks and just two plays of 20 yards or more.
The key to Clemson's past success was the blitz. The Tigers got pressure on Pickett often, and he averaged just 1.29 yards per dropback when the Tigers brought an extra pass-rusher. But this season, as good as Clemson's defense has been, it's gotten pressure on the QB just 32.7% of the time -- the lowest rate since 2014 -- and its sack rate of 6.6% would be the worst of Venables' tenure at Clemson.
The key for both Pickett and Clemson has been to go conservative. Pickett is completing 65% of his passes with 8 TDs and no picks vs. the blitz this year, success coming from quicker, shorter throws. Clemson, meanwhile, has played a bit less aggressively up front and, in turn, has limited big plays down the field. …
[With all respect due venerable Venables that alternative D ain’t no sub for a powerful blitz. You play a sag or prevent defense against a great QB like Burrow he has all the time in the world to pick you clean. The blitz iz it and if the QB is adept in the gun, you’re fucked with the other barrel. You gotta stunt, throw different looks, confuse the QB, forcr him into misreads of the scheme and mistaken throws.]
