Deaths:
The last black dot is "Actual," deaths reported Oct. 7th through 13th, 1,411/day. 1,411/day reported? The New York Times has 1,938/day Oct. 6th-12th. That's a big ass difference. The first red circle is a projection for next week, Oct. 14-20: 1,486. The last red circle, for Nov. 4th-10th is 1,057/day. Amazing. Note also the greatly restricted red-shaded cone of uncertainty,compared to what we have seen in previous forecasts.
Actual, the week just ended, 92,673 (NYT actual Oct. 6-12, 91,399, much closer). Projected next week, 86,074/day; and the week of Nov. 4-10, 60,155 day.
Now, you're going to get mad at me. You're going to call me Paul Krugman. That's okay, it's just what I have to bear. Why would this be? What have the Bidens done so much better in the last little bit to warrant these cliff-drop projections (they are still just projections)? People are back to work, back to school, there are mass-expectoration events on college campuses every Saturday, in professional football stadia each Sunday and I at least am seeing fewer masks now than literally I ever have before in a very conscientious community. I went to a restaurant yesterday morning and I was the only one wearing a mask inside. Have the vaccine mandates worked this miracle (in projection)? 76.7% according to the CDC today. It has taken forever to move past 75%.
Or is the answer that the Bidens have done nothing markedly different, that this thing just will have its way no matter what incremental measures we take? That is, that it will just burn through us at its own rate until it runs out of fuel and laugh off our fire-fighting tools?
Or is it a tease that is lulling us in preparation for a Nightmate Before Christmas.
Or an artifact of data, garbage in, garbage out?
My uneducated hunch is the first.
