The Times' daily average deaths/day for Oct. 7th through 13th have now been posted. That number is,
1,887 deaths/day.
That compares with the 1,411/day reported by CDC today, a difference of 466 deaths per day. That is clear error, inexcusable, on one agency's part, I do not know which, and is inexplicable.
I am going to calculate Biden Beats Trump Deaths Day using CDC's figures, rather than the Times' tonight to see what we get.
CDC's total U.S. deaths tonight are 716,370. That is 3,355 fewer than the Times' total. I decided to average the deaths through Jan. 20, 2021 from the numbers from three sources, medicaleconomics.com, covidtracking.com, and cnn.com. That average number is 396,422 and are termed here Trump Deaths. To get Biden Deaths I subtract 396,422 from CDC's total 716,370. The difference is 319,948. The difference between Trump Deaths and Biden Deaths tonight per CDC is 76,474.
I then have to make a good faith attempt to estimate the number of deaths/day coming down the pike and will then divide the 76,474 Biden Deaths by that estimated number to get Biden Beats Trump Deaths Day. I've decided to estimate using a universe of five numbers, all from the CDC, the last "Actual," and the four projections. Those figures are:
1,411/day Actual Oct. 7-13.
1,486/day Projected Oct. 14-20.
1,343/day Projected Oct. 21-27
1,205/day Projected Oct. 28-Nov. 3
1,057/day Projected Nov. 4-10.
1,300/day Average Actual and Projected Oct. 7-Nov. 10.
76,474 (the difference between total Trump Deaths and Biden Deaths tonight per CDC) divided by 1,300 estimated future deaths over last almost one month yields Biden Beats Trump Deaths Day and that day is Dec. 11, a substantial, substantial difference from Nov. 21 the projected date using NYT data on Oct. 12. Twenty days difference.
