More pronounced up squiggles. Is this like Pitt, when I ignore it it goes great, when I start paying attention it goes to pot? As I wrote last night I don't understand the up squiggle over 30 days. Now, from the look of those squiggles CDC is not representing that cases were higher on Oct. 19 than on Sept. 19, as indeed CDC's graph plainly shows.
As long as the cases graph line continues clearly down we can claim that we're defeating the Delta wave.
And that is exactly what we see.
Per death interval, deaths are right-shifted four weeks from cases.
You don't really see that do you? Why would deaths suddenly have increased lately? Ah, look more closely at the cases graph. You see that weirdo spike back there? That spike covers Sept. 12, 13, 14. Less than five weeks ago. So the death up-squiggle is very consistent with the death interval.
7-day daily averages (Oct. 13-19)
75,988 cases, DOWN 1,745/day. Tiny.1,256 deaths, DOWN 2/day. Tinier. Deaths have wobbled like a walking drunk from 1,220 Oct. 16, to 1,206 Oct. 17, 1,258 Oct. 18, and 1,256 Oct. 19.
Note we picked up a tenth of a percent in the vaccinated.
It is Wednesday which means CDC forecast day.
Cases one to four weeks out
The black dots represent "actual" cases, the red circles projections. Pretty nice, symmetrical cone of uncertainty. The last "actual" is 80,251/day. The first red circle, the projection for the week ending Oct. 27 is 76,776/day; the second, for Nov. 3, 67.291/day; Nov. 10, 61,778, and Nov. 17, 55,557. Whoa, those are humongous (forecasted) drops, 27.7% from Oct. 27 to Nov. 27.
Deaths one to four weeks out
"Actual" for the week ending today, Oct. 20, 1,296/day. Forecast Oct. 27, 1,364/day; Nov. 3, 1,257/day; Nov. 10, 1,101; and Nov. 17, 957. That is a forecast 30% drop in deaths from Oct. 27.
I'll take all of this.
