Tuesday, October 19, 2021

I would love to torture Walensky and Woodcock with cross-examination questions:

Good afternoon Drs Woodcocksky. According to CDC.gov the most recent peak in cases occurred on Sept. 1 with a daily average of 161,716; deaths peaked on Sept. 15 at 1,832/day. The Sept. 1 peak in cases occurred just as students at all levels were going back to classrooms, is that correct?
"Yes."
As of Oct. 18 cases have fallen 53% and deaths have 31% from their respective peaks, correct?
"Yes."
Would it be fair to say that those dramatic decreases took place during a time when all students had been back in school for over a month?
"Yes."
Would it be fair to say that both decreases occurred during a time when nationwide vaccinations increased only incrementally from about 75% to 77.2% as of October 18?
Would it be fair to say that the decreases were not due solely to the incremental increase in vaccinations?
"Yes."
Would either of you say that the 2.2% increase in vaccinations played a substantial role in the 53% decrease in cases and the 31% decrease in deaths?
"Yes." "Yes." Of course it did.
When cases hit their 2021 bottom of 11,518 June 18 was that because of vaccinations?
"No, that was because of the Delta variation."
As cases climbed from June 18 to Sept. 1 vaccinations also increased from roughly 55% of the population to 75% on August 5 and plateaued at 75% until just recently, correct?
"Yes."
Did the increase in vaccinations from roughly 55% to 75% cause the increase in cases and deaths?
"Of course not." "No!"
But your testimony is that the increase in vaccinations from 75% to 77.2% was partially responsible for the fall in cases and deaths by 53% and 31% respectfully?
"Have either of you seen photographs or video or read of the packed tackle football games on college campuses every Saturday since September 4, and packed professional stadiums on Sundays?"
"Outdoors, yes."
"Outdoors, yes, virtually all open-air stadiums, yes. Isn't it true that after the Provincetown/Barnstable County outbreak of breakthrough cases you recommended masking for crowds of people even if gathered outdoors if they are in very close contact with other people for lengthy periods of times, didn't you?"
"Yes, Provincetown was exceptional, however."
"Exceptional. Okay. Well, was Knoxville, Tennessee on Saturday, in which there were 102,445 people packed into a stadium for at least 4:45 minutes more or less exceptional than Provincetown?
"Well, I..."
"Let me break it down: Were more or fewer people than 102.445 present in Provincetown?"
"Fewer, but those in Provincetown were together for longer, in some cases for 12 or more hours."
"Okay, I was breaking down the question into discrete segments and was going to next ask you about your understanding of the time the Provincetown revelers were together, but you decided to answer both questions at once. So that the record is clear, your answer as to the number of people is that there were fewer in Provincetown than the 102,445 in Knoxville, correct.
"Yes."
But that the Provincetown people were packed in closely for a greater length of time, correct?
"Yes."
Now, we have fairly precise data attendance and length of time of the Tennessee-Mississippi game. 102,445 is the official Neyland Stadium count and the official start time was 7:30. Say 7:35 to be conservative. Then we have a screenshot of Mississippi's coach leaving the field of play shortly after the game timestamped at 12:17 a.m. Sunday morning. I would ask you to assume for the purposes of this question that over 102k people were in the closest contact for at least 4 and 3/4 hours. Do you have any such precision on how many people were in Provincetown generally that weekend, how many of those were in continuous close proximity in Provincetown, and the duration of the close proximity?
"Not that level of precision on any of the metrics about which you ask. We estimate that there were several tens of thousands in Provincetown for the weekend. We eatimate that over ten thousand were in close contact, and we estimate that the duration of close contact for was anywhere from a few hours up to 72 hours.

Very well. Now, a third factor would be the percentage of people vaccinated in the venue and the vicinity, would you agree?
"That would be one additional factor, yes."
Do you know the percentage of people in the state of Tennessee have been vaccinated either fully or with one shot, do you know?
"I don't have the state data with me..."
That's okay, I do. According to the CDC website Oct. 18, 2021, for the state of Tennessee 62.9% of those age 12 and over have received at least one shot, will you accept my representation on that.
"Yes."
Do you know the percentage of people fully vaccinated in Knox County, Tennessee?
"No."
On CDC's website the percentage of those 12 and older in Knox County who have been fully vaccinated is 61.4%, will you accept that figure?
"Yes."
One of the ways that Provincetown/Barnstable County was "exceptional" to use your term, was that the vast majority of those gathered for that holiday and in the surrounding community were vaccinated, isn't that right?
"Yes, they were."
Am I more or less correct in my memory that 90-or-so percent of those you could get info on at that holiday gathering in Provincetown and in the surrounding community were vaccinated?
"That sounds about right?"
Do you agree with this advice from the New York Times: that for those unvaccinated, and in Knox County Tennessee according to CDC's latest data that is 38.6% not fully vaccinated, that the unvaccinated "should avoid events with more than a handful of people."
"Yes."
Continuing, that "Outdoor activities can be a good substitute" for indoor activities." Do you agree?
"Yes."
Continuing, "Because of the extremely high risk of exposure to Covid in Knox County, even outdoor dining and outdoor bars are unsafe." Do you agree with that?
"Yes."
Would you agree that at the very least the unvaccinated in Knox County should practice mitigation efforts such as social distancing and mask-wearing in outdoor dining establishments and at bars?
"Yes."
Are you aware that crowd shots in Tennessee's stadium Saturday showed virtually no people masked?
"No, I did not see crowd shots."
Are you aware that at prior Tennessee home games in that same stadium loud chants from a clear majority of attendees were heard saying "Fuck you, Biden" over vaccine mandates?
"I was aware that that was going on in numerous stadiums across the South."
Finally doctors, would you agree that from these factors, to reiterate for this question: the number of attendees, the close proximity of the attendees, the duration of close proximity, and the vaccination status of the attendees, that we should see an increase in new infections in Knox County in the coming week.
"It’s difficult to predict the future and I am not prepared to predict that just from the metrics you use that we will see an increase in new infections in the short term. There are a number of other variables in play that you didn't mention, as one example, we don't know the percentage of people in that particular stadium who were vaccinated."
They may be the responsible ones, is that right, the vaccinated may be more highly represented among those 102,445 chanting "Fuck you, Biden"?
"It's possible."
I have no further questions Doctors.